The Two General's Problem

tlb wrote:There is no evidence that they have thinkers better than what can be found in the Honorverse at large (even excluding Honor). The prime evidence for this lack is the failed performance of their six century plan so far. The remaining Detweilers admit there have to be a lot of adjustments.

penny wrote:Why is this a common theme??? Many of you judge the success of the Malign’s Alpha program by the flaws in a six centuries old plan??? Come on! Sure, some things went wrong. To me, that simply shows that they are human. Well, still human as of now.

Newsflash: They are Alphas not soothsayers.

They don’t have a witch wielding a crystal ball conjuring up images to see into the future! (With the possible exception of Anisimovna whose intelligence shown thus far makes me think she is Honor’s doppelganger.) Just to attempt a plan that will encompass six centuries is incredible!!! Mind-boggling is a what it is! And to have so much of it go RIGHT is even more astonishing. And why did they need to develop the galaxy’s weapons when they utilized various navy’s and their fleets and their weapons as if they were their own. Does anyone realize that Alpha intelligence moved entire fleets of other navies around the board like they were their Admiralty? The Malign utilized Haven’s navy to attack Manticore. The SLN to attack Manticore. And the RMN to attack Sol and Haven. And you still doubt Alpha intelligence? What is the need for developing warships and weapons when you can simply commandeer entire fleets of OPN. Other people’s navies!

If you think that the ability to create and use corruption is a sign of great intellect, then you do not know people very well.

tlb wrote:

tlb wrote:There is no evidence that they have thinkers better than what can be found in the Honorverse at large (even excluding Honor). The prime evidence for this lack is the failed performance of their six century plan so far. The remaining Detweilers admit there have to be a lot of adjustments.

penny wrote:Why is this a common theme??? Many of you judge the success of the Malign’s Alpha program by the flaws in a six centuries old plan??? Come on! Sure, some things went wrong. To me, that simply shows that they are human. Well, still human as of now.

Newsflash: They are Alphas not soothsayers.

They don’t have a witch wielding a crystal ball conjuring up images to see into the future! (With the possible exception of Anisimovna whose intelligence shown thus far makes me think she is Honor’s doppelganger.) Just to attempt a plan that will encompass six centuries is incredible!!! Mind-boggling is a what it is! And to have so much of it go RIGHT is even more astonishing. And why did they need to develop the galaxy’s weapons when they utilized various navy’s and their fleets and their weapons as if they were their own. Does anyone realize that Alpha intelligence moved entire fleets of other navies around the board like they were their Admiralty? The Malign utilized Haven’s navy to attack Manticore. The SLN to attack Manticore. And the RMN to attack Sol and Haven. And you still doubt Alpha intelligence? What is the need for developing warships and weapons when you can simply commandeer entire fleets of OPN. Other people’s navies!

If you think that the ability to create and use corruption is a sign of great intellect, then you do not know people very well.

Why do you persist? Obviously the site is working well for you? Then you should have seen that I was still editing on a website that is still wacky for me. You couldn't wait until I was done? That has been your MO for as long as I can remember. You are probably the first poster to respond to any other post. You are quick to pull your pen but slow to poll your brain.

You ninja post me with this? That's all you got? You couldn't allow me a little leeway to at least finish the post? For this?

penny wrote:Why do you persist? Obviously the site is working well for you? Then you should have seen that I was still editing on a website that is still wacky for me. You couldn't wait until I was done? That has been your MO for as long as I can remember. You are probably the first poster to respond to any other post. You are quick to pull your pen but slow to poll your brain.

You ninja post me with this? That's all you got? You couldn't allow me a little leeway to at least finish the post? For this?

How am I supposed to see that you had not finished a completed post? It certainly looked complete and I do not see any major change in the part that caused my response.

Persistence: the quality that allows someone to continue doing something or trying to do something even though it is difficult or opposed by other people.

Always before, I thought that you composed your longest posts in a word processor and then just pasted them here.

Oh no, I had to edit this after someone else had already posted. Don't we all just hate that?

.

penny wrote:
I am shocked at your logic without you at least issuing grains of salt. It is true that their new missiles are reengineered technology. Look how quickly they developed those weapons. And behind the scenes no doubt. But what did they utilize those missiles for?

1. To supply to the SLN to make a fool of themselves w/o the tech leading back to them.

2. In defense of Galton who were simply a cutout and a scapegoat. The MAN were withholding tech from Galton even in defense of it.

So, and I am not saying this is what happened, but I always cautioned my brain against it. The MAN could have reengineered all of their reengineered brute force missiles and tech simply to protect their own tech. They didn’t need to supply the SLN with any of their own tech. In fact, if it was planned, and it was, then it is brilliant of them to reengineer the tech behind the rest of the galaxy’s missiles so quickly, simply to give to the SLN and in defense of Galton. A surefire brilliant way to keep their own tech under wraps. By fighting those battles with tech already out there.

We actually don't know it was a quick process for them to develop those Cataphracts.

They'd have become aware of the RMN's multidrive missiles no later than early 1915 (when word of the December 1914 Operation Buttercup's widespread use of them would have gotten around). Yet the first time we see Cataphract's was almost 7 years later at the Second battle of Congo (Oct 1921) when the Maya-sector fleet helped Torch defeat the PNE attack.

That's not an especially quick development time. (But, yes, to be fair I don't think we know how long the MAlign had had Cataphracts ready before that first known use)


Also I see two issues with your theory that the Cataphract was a low-end export weapon; to hide their true capabilities. (At least for anti-ship missiles. You could argue that they were a way to avoid giving their other advanced weapon, the graser torp, to outsiders)
* First, pods of Cataphract were the backup prong of their Oyster Bay attack; as both torps and pods were used (usually redundantly targeting the same things). If the MAlign had had a better weapon at that time they'd have almost certainly used it.
* Second we have the omniscient narrator explicitly saying that they developed it because they couldn't (yet, as of OB) reproduce a true MDM.

Mission of Honor wrote:Daniel Detweiler’s researchers hadn’t yet figured out how to fit multiple full-size, sustainable drives into a single missile of manageable dimensions. They had, however, realized what the RMN must have done, and they were working industriously to duplicate the Manticoran advantage. In the meantime, they’d come up with Cataphract, a variant of their own based on taking the standard missile bodies for the SLN’s new-generation anti-ship missiles and adding what amounted to a separate final stage carrying a standard laser head and a counter-missile’s drive system.

So, whether or not they've cracked it now with the newer Ninurta anti-ship missile, it's canonical that even their vaunted Alphas weren't able even reinvent multidrive capabilities in the 7 years between when they'd have become aware of them and the Oyster Bay attacks.

Jonathan_S wrote:

penny wrote:
I am shocked at your logic without you at least issuing grains of salt. It is true that their new missiles are reengineered technology. Look how quickly they developed those weapons. And behind the scenes no doubt. But what did they utilize those missiles for?

1. To supply to the SLN to make a fool of themselves w/o the tech leading back to them.

2. In defense of Galton who were simply a cutout and a scapegoat. The MAN were withholding tech from Galton even in defense of it.

So, and I am not saying this is what happened, but I always cautioned my brain against it. The MAN could have reengineered all of their reengineered brute force missiles and tech simply to protect their own tech. They didn’t need to supply the SLN with any of their own tech. In fact, if it was planned, and it was, then it is brilliant of them to reengineer the tech behind the rest of the galaxy’s missiles so quickly, simply to give to the SLN and in defense of Galton. A surefire brilliant way to keep their own tech under wraps. By fighting those battles with tech already out there.

We actually don't know it was a quick process for them to develop those Cataphracts.

They'd have become aware of the RMN's multidrive missiles no later than early 1915 (when word of the December 1914 Operation Buttercup's widespread use of them would have gotten around). Yet the first time we see Cataphract's was almost 7 years later at the Second battle of Congo (Oct 1921) when the Maya-sector fleet helped Torch defeat the PNE attack.

That's not an especially quick development time. (But, yes, to be fair I don't think we know how long the MAlign had had Cataphracts ready before that first known use)


Also I see two issues with your theory that the Cataphract was a low-end export weapon; to hide their true capabilities. (At least for anti-ship missiles. You could argue that they were a way to avoid giving their other advanced weapon, the graser torp, to outsiders)
* First, pods of Cataphract were the backup prong of their Oyster Bay attack; as both torps and pods were used (usually redundantly targeting the same things). If the MAlign had had a better weapon at that time they'd have almost certainly used it.
* Second we have the omniscient narrator explicitly saying that they developed it because they couldn't (yet, as of OB) reproduce a true MDM.

Mission of Honor wrote:Daniel Detweiler’s researchers hadn’t yet figured out how to fit multiple full-size, sustainable drives into a single missile of manageable dimensions. They had, however, realized what the RMN must have done, and they were working industriously to duplicate the Manticoran advantage. In the meantime, they’d come up with Cataphract, a variant of their own based on taking the standard missile bodies for the SLN’s new-generation anti-ship missiles and adding what amounted to a separate final stage carrying a standard laser head and a counter-missile’s drive system.

So, whether or not they've cracked it now with the newer Ninurta anti-ship missile, it's canonical that even their vaunted Alphas weren't able even reinvent multidrive capabilities in the 7 years between when they'd have become aware of them and the Oyster Bay attacks.

Jonathan_S wrote:We actually don't know it was a quick process for them to develop those Cataphracts.

They'd have become aware of the RMN's multidrive missiles no later than early 1915 (when word of the December 1914 Operation Buttercup's widespread use of them would have gotten around). Yet the first time we see Cataphract's was almost 7 years later at the Second battle of Congo (Oct 1921) when the Maya-sector fleet helped Torch defeat the PNE attack.

That's not an especially quick development time. (But, yes, to be fair I don't think we know how long the MAlign had had Cataphracts ready before that first known use)

No we don’t to know how long they had them. Plus! They did not develop them in-house. They developed them through a proxy cutout to remain off the radar. To develop something out of house and also make it appear as if someone else developed it is brilliant; and probably very time consuming in order to guarantee secrecy and security. We also do not know what tweeks were made at the last minute to hide the Cataphract's true range.

Jonathan_S wrote:Also I see two issues with your theory that the Cataphract was a low-end export weapon; to hide their true capabilities. (At least for anti-ship missiles. You could argue that they were a way to avoid giving their other advanced weapon, the graser torp, to outsiders)
* First, pods of Cataphract were the backup prong of their Oyster Bay attack; as both torps and pods were used (usually redundantly targeting the same things). If the MAlign had had a better weapon at that time they'd have almost certainly used it.

Torps and pods were used to try and hide the fact that torps were used; and to supply -- even if just a bit -- plausible deniability. I thought. The plausible deniability certainly worked to fool the SLN.

Jonathan_S wrote:* Second we have the omniscient narrator explicitly saying that they developed it because they couldn't (yet, as of OB) reproduce a true MDM.

I’m still not convinced that MDMs were on their to do list in the beginning. This is a navy who has the ability to get their weapons deeply inside enemy territory via their stealth. So their launches do not need to come from the edge of the hyper limit or beyond. If so, they have the g-torp for that.

So, yes, even though the author said that, he did not comment on whether or not the decision to develop the tech was a “last minute” response to unforeseen consequences going on in the MBS.

Jonathan_S wrote:So, whether or not they've cracked it now with the newer Ninurta anti-ship missile, it's canonical that even their vaunted Alphas weren't able even reinvent multidrive capabilities in the 7 years between when they'd have become aware of them and the Oyster Bay attacks.

A navy does not need to develop MDMs if their flagship tech can ferry their missiles right to the enemy's front door.

Jonathan_S wrote:We actually don't know it was a quick process for them to develop those Cataphracts.

They'd have become aware of the RMN's multidrive missiles no later than early 1915 (when word of the December 1914 Operation Buttercup's widespread use of them would have gotten around). Yet the first time we see Cataphract's was almost 7 years later at the Second battle of Congo (Oct 1921) when the Maya-sector fleet helped Torch defeat the PNE attack.

That's not an especially quick development time. (But, yes, to be fair I don't think we know how long the MAlign had had Cataphracts ready before that first known use)

Jonathan_S wrote:Also I see two issues with your theory that the Cataphract was a low-end export weapon; to hide their true capabilities. (At least for anti-ship missiles. You could argue that they were a way to avoid giving their other advanced weapon, the graser torp, to outsiders)
* First, pods of Cataphract were the backup prong of their Oyster Bay attack; as both torps and pods were used (usually redundantly targeting the same things). If the MAlign had had a better weapon at that time they'd have almost certainly used it.

penny wrote:No we don’t to know how long they had them. Plus! They did not develop them in-house. They developed them through a proxy cutout to remain off the radar. To develop something out of house and also make it appear as if someone else developed it is brilliant; and probably very time consuming in order to guarantee secrecy and security. We also do not know what tweeks were made at the last minute to hide the Cataphract's true range.

The evidence is that the Cataphract was developed at Galton and leaked to the SLN. The ones that the People's Navy in Exile had were stated as being developed by the Malign and the ones the SLN fleet used in the attack on Manticore were noted to have come from Mesa (even though Mesa did not have the manufacturing facilities for them). These two deliveries were later used to pinpoint the location of Galton.

So there was not a real proxy cutoff to hide the origin. Perhaps you are thinking of the Hastas that were used in the SLN attack on Beowulf. They might have been developed by Technodyne Industries of Yildun or might be the result of a Malign agent planted in their research department.

penny wrote:
I am shocked at your logic without you at least issuing grains of salt. It is true that their new missiles are reengineered technology. Look how quickly they developed those weapons. And behind the scenes no doubt. But what did they utilize those missiles for?

1. To supply to the SLN to make a fool of themselves w/o the tech leading back to them.

That was NOT the plan. That was what happened, but the MAlign wanted the SLN to at least have a fighting chance and to bring the Manticorans and later the Alliance down. That did not happen. That means they did not achieve their goals. And I doubt that they withheld multidrive technology intentionally allowing this to happen.

No, I just think they didn't get the Cataphracts and later the Ninurtas ready in time. Yes, they needed to do so through a network of cutouts so that it would look like TIY developed them - and they still failed at that, because everyone knows the MAlign made them.

That's different for Galton: there was nothing that Galton would gain by having Ninurtas. Galton was doomed if the GA found it.

Jonathan_S wrote:We actually don't know it was a quick process for them to develop those Cataphracts.

They'd have become aware of the RMN's multidrive missiles no later than early 1915 (when word of the December 1914 Operation Buttercup's widespread use of them would have gotten around). Yet the first time we see Cataphract's was almost 7 years later at the Second battle of Congo (Oct 1921) when the Maya-sector fleet helped Torch defeat the PNE attack.

That's not an especially quick development time. (But, yes, to be fair I don't think we know how long the MAlign had had Cataphracts ready before that first known use)

Compare that to how long it took Haven and the Andermani to develop their MDMs. The Andermani likely started even before Operation Buttercup - opsec did not hold - and Foraker right after the "oops." Their versions were in deployment by 1918-19. And both of their versions were much better than the Cataphracts.

* First, pods of Cataphract were the backup prong of their Oyster Bay attack; as both torps and pods were used (usually redundantly targeting the same things). If the MAlign had had a better weapon at that time they'd have almost certainly used it.

Agreed. They unveiled the spider torpedoes, so if they had had better conventional missiles, they'd have used them. Especially if they looked like Havenite missiles.

Though I have to point out they didn't need the multidrive component at the distance those missiles fired. They did need the better warheads, though.

penny wrote:I’m still not convinced that MDMs were on their to do list in the beginning. This is a navy who has the ability to get their weapons deeply inside enemy territory via their stealth. So their launches do not need to come from the edge of the hyper limit or beyond. If so, they have the g-torp for that.

No, indeed they weren't, any more than it was on anyone else's. The breakthrough that allowed the RMN to develop the MDMs was not predicted by anyone else - a black swan event. Therefore, not seeing them coming is no ding on the Alphas' track record.

And as you say, they were focused on other things too... or at least Darius was. Galton didn't know about the ability to get deep inside enemy territory. Galton did need to counter the MDM ability. Therefore, Galton did need to develop a duplicate for it. And my guess is that they did develop it... they just don't know they did, because their R&D was subtly corrupted to make them not actually produce the Ninurta in their system.

So, yes, even though the author said that, he did not comment on whether or not the decision to develop the tech was a “last minute” response to unforeseen consequences going on in the MBS.

Either way it is a ding on them.

One option is that they did see the need to develop but were just slow at it. This may be a self-inflicted wound because the Darius TPTB decided Galton couldn't have it, so they kept shooting themselves in the foot by corrupting the research and making insufficient process.

The other option is that they didn't see the need to develop it in the first place. This is even worse: they were paying attention to the Haven Sector. There was no mistaking the effect of Operation Buttercup that everything that wasn't MDM-equipped was just a target.

I think it's more of the first than of the second. And add the fact that the spider drive was a recent development at the time, so R&D efforts were focused on that, with little left for the MDMs. If you further add the expectation that the spider torpedoes would be better than they actually were, then it could explain why they thought they could develop an MDM at a leisure pace, instead of crash-develop, all-hands-on-deck pace.

A navy does not need to develop MDMs if their flagship tech can ferry their missiles right to the enemy's front door.

A navy does not put all eggs in one basket. It makes no sense not to develop an MDM. If you have something better, great, then you have a better menu of options to use. If it turns out you don't have something better because the technology did not pan out, then you have a fallback.

If what you're saying is what happened, then it would be a major failing on the part of the Onion Alphas: arrogance.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:Why would their on-average-superior intellect make them more prone to developing one particular technology though not another? As I've just posted above, their breakthroughs anywhere except biological sciences have been entirely borne out of brute force. Their new missiles were not new developments, they are copies of what the GA has. They didn't see those developments coming any more than Haven or the League did (I'd argue that the Andermani did see it coming through espionage, but remained quiet about it).

snip

What's more, the Alphas are all full of failings and blind spots. This could be one of them: "we are plenty smart so we don't need smarter computers."

penny wrote:I am shocked at your logic without you at least issuing grains of salt. It is true that their new missiles are reengineered technology. Look how quickly they developed those weapons. And behind the scenes no doubt. But what did they utilize those missiles for?

1. To supply to the SLN to make a fool of themselves w/o the tech leading back to them.

2. In defense of Galton who were simply a cutout and a scapegoat. The MAN were withholding tech from Galton even in defense of it.

So, and I am not saying this is what happened, but I always cautioned my brain against it. The MAN could have reengineered all of their reengineered brute force missiles and tech simply to protect their own tech. They didn’t need to supply the SLN with any of their own tech. In fact, if it was planned, and it was, then it is brilliant of them to reengineer the tech behind the rest of the galaxy’s missiles so quickly, simply to give to the SLN and in defense of Galton. A surefire brilliant way to keep their own tech under wraps. By fighting those battles with tech already out there.

tlb wrote: snip

There is no evidence that they have thinkers better than what can be found in the Honorverse at large (even excluding Honor). The prime evidence for this lack is the failed performance of their six century plan so far. The remaining Detweilers admit there have to be a lot of adjustments. Snip

re-edited

penny wrote:Why is this a common theme??? Many of you judge the success of the Malign’s Alpha program by the flaws in a six centuries old plan??? Come on! Sure, some things went wrong. To me, that simply shows that they are human. Well, still human as of now.

Newsflash: They are Alphas NOT soothsayers.

They don’t have a witch wielding a crystal ball conjuring up images to see into the future! (With the possible exception of Anisimovna whose intelligence shown thus far makes me think she is Honor’s doppelganger.)

Just to attempt a plan that will encompass six centuries is incredible!!! Mind-boggling is what it is! And to have so much of it go RIGHT is even more astonishing. And why did they need to develop the galaxy’s weapons when they utilized various navy’s and their fleets as if they were their own?

Does anyone realize that Alpha intelligence moved entire fleets of other navies around the board like they owned them? The Malign utilized Haven’s navy to attack Manticore. The SLN to attack Manticore. And the RMN to attack Sol and Haven. And you still doubt Alpha intelligence? Where is the need for developing warships and weapons when you can simply commandeer entire fleets of OPN!

Other People’s Navies.

Y’all ain’t gonna like me for this ... but it’s true.

If truth be told, the MA did a better job at attacking the MBS than the SLN.

If we include all of the truth, the MA did a better job at attacking the MBS than Haven!

They all lost. But the MA didn’t lose any ships or lives in their “indirect” attacks.

Psychological win.
Attritional win.

And y'all still doubt the level of their intelligence.

tlb wrote:There is no evidence that they have thinkers better than what can be found in the Honorverse at large (even excluding Honor). The prime evidence for this lack is the failed performance of their six century plan so far. The remaining Detweilers admit there have to be a lot of adjustments.

penny wrote:Y’all ain’t gonna like me for this, but it’s true.

If truth be told, the MA did a better job at attacking the MBS than the SLN.

If we include all of the truth, the MA did a better job at attacking the MBS than Haven!

They all lost. But the MA didn’t lose any ships or lives in their “indirect” attacks.

Psychological win.
Attritional win.

And y'all still doubt the level of their intelligence.

You are correct in saying that the Malign did more damage in Manticore's home system with Oyster Bay than the Solarian League or Haven accomplished. But it was NOT a win for the Malign, because it did NOT advance the Plan. The attack had to be rushed, because the new link to the Talbott Quadrant brought Manticore too close to Mesa. For all the damage, it did not even tip the balance into Haven's favor in its conflict with Manticore. The result for the Onion was that Houdini had to be rushed.

The Alphas are smart, but not smart enough to make the six hundred year old plan work. Particularly when it can be derailed by the defection of one or two men.

Let's be clear, the Detweilers are peak Alphas and Bardasano was not far behind. But the Bardasano genome also illustrates the problem with the Alphas: members were not culled because of sexual deviancy (that only knocked the rating to Beta from Alpha); but because they displayed too much ruthless ambition, which made them a danger to the Detweilers. No one was allowed to be better than the Detweilers.