Defense of Felix

tlb wrote:I still do not understand; if they are not aware of something, then why are they doing ANYTHING with Felix? They are also required to have intelligence on Mannerheim and the Renaissance Factor. Not just suspicions, so that would mean that they must have already acted on Mannerheim. It is true that does not mean that they aware of the threat environment, but it does mean that the Renaissance Factor might not be able to play a part anymore.

As tlb asks, the question you'd asked was "how can any navy hope to seize" but you didn't tell us why they'd want to do that in the first place.

If it's just some random survey ship that finds it and wants to hold it until they can ascertain who owns the system and try to buy it, surely they'll be destroyed without a trace (preferably before the survey ship goes back to its owners to report on the finding). So maybe the survey ship did get away too quickly for the MSDF to intervene, so now a foreign power comes in with a task force to claim the system.

In this case, the stealth ships would not come into play. The MSDF would reveal it had been there all along and was claiming the system. De jure they've been trying to acquire it for 15 years, and de facto already possess it by force of might. No need for the MAN to get involved and reveal that this is their transit into the galaxy. Instead, let the RF reap the economic benefits and keep the Alignment still in hiding.

Of course, this will bring attention to the Junction and would still deny the MAN its secret use. They'd still be able to use it, just not in secret any more. I'm sure the Inner Onion has a plan for what their response should be.

But a navy holding it, against the MSDF's wishes? That implies they know that this is the MAlign's wormhole and the Alignment has stealth ships. They may send a regular force to hold it from inside the hyperlimit, like in the Prime system, but I agree that force will be destroyed. That's when what I replied comes into play: don't try to hold it, just deny use.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:

tlb wrote:I still do not understand; if they are not aware of something, then why are they doing ANYTHING with Felix? They are also required to have intelligence on Mannerheim and the Renaissance Factor. Not just suspicions, so that would mean that they must have already acted on Mannerheim. It is true that does not mean that they aware of the threat environment, but it does mean that the Renaissance Factor might not be able to play a part anymore.

As tlb asks, the question you'd asked was "how can any navy hope to seize" but you didn't tell us why they'd want to do that in the first place.

If it's just some random survey ship that finds it and wants to hold it until they can ascertain who owns the system and try to buy it, surely they'll be destroyed without a trace (preferably before the survey ship goes back to its owners to report on the finding). So maybe the survey ship did get away too quickly for the MSDF to intervene, so now a foreign power comes in with a task force to claim the system.

In this case, the stealth ships would not come into play. The MSDF would reveal it had been there all along and was claiming the system. De jure they've been trying to acquire it for 15 years, and de facto already possess it by force of might. No need for the MAN to get involved and reveal that this is their transit into the galaxy. Instead, let the RF reap the economic benefits and keep the Alignment still in hiding.

Of course, this will bring attention to the Junction and would still deny the MAN its secret use. They'd still be able to use it, just not in secret any more. I'm sure the Inner Onion has a plan for what their response should be.

But a navy holding it, against the MSDF's wishes? That implies they know that this is the MAlign's wormhole and the Alignment has stealth ships. They may send a regular force to hold it from inside the hyperlimit, like in the Prime system, but I agree that force will be destroyed. That's when what I replied comes into play: don't try to hold it, just deny use.

I did not answer tlb's question because I thought the answer was obvious or it would become obvious. Sorry.

No navy worth its weight in cluster bombs will fail to analyze a war with its enemies. And this particular enemy, the MAN, is not only ran by a bunch of Alphas, but they have been planning their strategy for centuries. It is unthinkable to think that Darius would not expect to have to defend Felix at some point if the GA finds out their whereabouts.

The question becomes, how in the malignant centuries old scheme of things could the MAlignment fail to develop contingency plans for Felix? If indeed Felix is a strategic choke point for their operations. The MAlign have always been several chess moves ahead. They are Alphas. And a centuries long plan would not have left the Defense of Felix off the discussion board in the War Room. Since you know that one day it will be contested in some form or fashion, then plan for that day.

Having said that, discovering where your enemy is located is not synonymous with knowing their order of battle. The GA will not know about stealth warships unless the MAN has unleashed them upon the galaxy. At which point, seizing Felix will be a moot point by way of being the least of the GA's concerns.

So I place the ball back in your court. What would you expect the MAlign to do if Felix actually is their center of gravity?

Kzt's initial post notwithstanding, if Felix is not critical to their operations, the MAN can lure them into thinking that it is. Either way, the Battle of Felix promises to go down in history as one of the most important battles in galactic history.

And when a WH is the center of attention of an impending battle, there is always the Two Generals' Problem. This problem is normally solved by sending a dispatch boat through the junction to summon the cavalry. The SLN used a dispatch boat to summon Tsang. By the musings of certain RMN officers, I got the impression that the use of a dispatch boat is a common strategy.

But again, strategic and tactical doctrine is completely different by design for an invisible enemy. So the MAN will naturally have a problem coordinating forces through a junction. With quantum communication, their Two Generals' Problem is solved.

penny wrote:I did not answer tlb's question because I thought the answer was obvious or it would become obvious. Sorry.

No navy worth its weight in cluster bombs will fail to analyze a war with its enemies. And this particular enemy, the MAN, is not only ran by a bunch of Alphas, but they have been planning their strategy for centuries. It is unthinkable to think that Darius would not expect to have to defend Felix at some point if the GA finds out their whereabouts.

Obviously Felix is important and obviously it must be defended.

However Felix is even more important in a way you have chosen to ignore. If the Grand Alliance is trying to take control of this junction then everyone is in the endgame and there is no reason to assume that the MAN ships are as near to invisible as you would like. Why endgame? Because attacking Felix means that the Renaissance Factor has already been broken. There is no other reason to move in force into an obscure region of space that Mannerheim ships had been using as a maneuver area.

PS: This not the first time you have tried to push the idea of quantum communication through a wormhole. The answer then, as now, is we have no way of knowing. It is entirely up to the author.

If Felix is the wormhole Junction then that's one set of conditions and, so far as we know, the closest, most usable access to much of human space. Once anyone other than MSDF/RF Navy gets to see an incoming transit though the Felix Wormhole that is "inviable" or is a design such as described for Spider Drive ships, all bets are off. That would force the Alignment to use hyperspace to move ships etc anywhere and, we presume, add a considerable amount of time for any transit of people/messages/materials to where they could be used in the ongoing PLAN to take over the known galaxy by the Alignment.
It is POSSIBLE that Mannerheim could effectively argue that they had no idea that there was a wormhole by the Felix System if they weren't caught by it during a transit and the ship observing the operation got away to pass the info to the GA. On the other hand, once any information on how long MSDF had been actively using the Felix System for "training" comes to light, various people might soon suspect that there has been something going on and MSDF protests too much about not having notices an actively used terminus by the system.

If the Felix wormhole is "just" a terminus for the actual Junction adjacent to the system where Darius is located, then another set of conditions apply.

The Alignment can continue to use the Junction, excepting the Felix terminus, and will have to blockade the lanes from the Felix. That wold deny the Alignment the used of the Felix terminus to get into where they have been running their transports and dispatch shops but leaves them free to take other routes.

So, which is it. Option 1 becomes a major plot flaw if you want the Alignment to have good and secret access to it's various future targets.

tlb wrote:

penny wrote:I did not answer tlb's question because I thought the answer was obvious or it would become obvious. Sorry.

No navy worth its weight in cluster bombs will fail to analyze a war with its enemies. And this particular enemy, the MAN, is not only ran by a bunch of Alphas, but they have been planning their strategy for centuries. It is unthinkable to think that Darius would not expect to have to defend Felix at some point if the GA finds out their whereabouts.

Obviously Felix is important and obviously it must be defended.

However Felix is even more important in a way you have chosen to ignore. If the Grand Alliance is trying to take control of this junction then everyone is in the endgame and there is no reason to assume that the MAN ships are as near to invisible as you would like. Why endgame? Because attacking Felix means that the Renaissance Factor has already been broken. There is no other reason to move in force into an obscure region of space that Mannerheim ships had been using as a maneuver area.

At least the prelude to the end game. I agree. But why would that mean the RF has been broken? As readers, we don't even know what part the RF will play in an updated reformulated plan. What reason do you have that the MAN ships would not continue to be as invisible as the MAN thinks?

tlb wrote:PS: This not the first time you have tried to push the idea of quantum communication through a wormhole. The answer then, as now, is we have no way of knowing. It is entirely up to the author.

Of course. I even began the thread with quantum communication. Is there not enough handwavium left for the MA to be the first to develop quantum communication? A proof of concept that may have been obtained even now in the 21st century. There is just way too much of that SLN hubris.

The MAN might not be able to use a dispatch boat if a WH is the site of hostilities. That breakthrough would solve their problem, and it would be understandable that they would pursue quantum communication. Necessity is the mother of invention, and since we already might have a proof of concept, it wouldn't even require any handwavium. So, why not? I am not saying the author would adopt such an idea. I am just saying it is not only possible, but practical as far as this navy's doctrine. And given their strategic and tactical doctrine, it would be totally acceptable as a reader that they would be pursuing it.

Brigade XO wrote:If Felix is the wormhole Junction then that's one set of conditions and, so far as we know, the closest, most usable access to much of human space. Once anyone other than MSDF/RF Navy gets to see an incoming transit though the Felix Wormhole that is "inviable" or is a design such as described for Spider Drive ships, all bets are off. That would force the Alignment to use hyperspace to move ships etc anywhere and, we presume, add a considerable amount of time for any transit of people/messages/materials to where they could be used in the ongoing PLAN to take over the known galaxy by the Alignment.
It is POSSIBLE that Mannerheim could effectively argue that they had no idea that there was a wormhole by the Felix System if they weren't caught by it during a transit and the ship observing the operation got away to pass the info to the GA. On the other hand, once any information on how long MSDF had been actively using the Felix System for "training" comes to light, various people might soon suspect that there has been something going on and MSDF protests too much about not having notices an actively used terminus by the system.

If the Felix wormhole is "just" a terminus for the actual Junction adjacent to the system where Darius is located, then another set of conditions apply.

The Alignment can continue to use the Junction, excepting the Felix terminus, and will have to blockade the lanes from the Felix. That wold deny the Alignment the used of the Felix terminus to get into where they have been running their transports and dispatch shops but leaves them free to take other routes.

So, which is it. Option 1 becomes a major plot flaw if you want the Alignment to have good and secret access to it's various future targets.

Hmm... Brigade XO has just given another reason for the MAN to develop quantum communication. Stealthy platforms can stand watch on that side of the junction letting any ships wanting to transit know if there is any ship near enough to see a transit. IOW, a quantum communication to a stealthy buoy would answer the question, 'Is the coast clear?'

penny wrote:At least the prelude to the end game. I agree. But why would that mean the RF has been broken? As readers, we don't even know what part the RF will play in an updated reformulated plan. What reason do you have that the MAN ships would not continue to be as invisible as the MAN thinks?

What reason does the GA have for moving on Felix? I can only think of one: the fighting has been going on and the aura of neutrality about the Renaissance Factor has been pierced, including the importance of Felix. If the RF is now known to be tied to the Malign, then it does not matter what the reformulated plan intended for them. Further, if the fighting has been going on, then the Grand Alliance must already have encountered ships of the MAN. So if the GA is advancing a fleet so far out of their home space after having met ships of the MAN, then it must be the case that the GA has already developed countermeasures to either the spider drive or the stealth (if not both).

PS: we have NO proof of concept for communication through a wormhole. It will only happen in the Honorverse, if the author wants it to happen. Wanting and needing is not sufficient unless RFC believes it advances the story that he wants to tell. Wishes do not always come true.

tlb wrote:

penny wrote:At least the prelude to the end game. I agree. But why would that mean the RF has been broken? As readers, we don't even know what part the RF will play in an updated reformulated plan. What reason do you have that the MAN ships would not continue to be as invisible as the MAN thinks?

What reason does the GA have for moving on Felix? I can only think of one: the fighting has been going on and the aura of neutrality about the Renaissance Factor has been pierced, including the importance of Felix. If the RF is now known to be tied to the Malign, then it does not matter what the reformulated plan intended for them. Further, if the fighting has been going on, then the Grand Alliance must already have encountered ships of the MAN. So if the GA is advancing a fleet so far out of their home space after having met ships of the MAN, then it must be the case that the GA has already developed countermeasures to either the spider drive or the stealth (if not both).

PS: we have NO proof of concept for communication through a wormhole. It will only happen in the Honorverse, if the author wants it to happen. Wanting and needing is not sufficient unless RFC believes it advances the story that he wants to tell. Wishes do not always come true.

How does that follow? No fighting had been going on for the GA to move on Galton. Tidbits of information led them there. Why should it be any different? Staking out the WH would be the best bet instead of sticking your head through the meat grinder to see for sure.

I think Thinksmarkedly was the first to submit area denial as a possible GA tactic. I can agree with that tactic here. I just think it will be very costly. And it would certainly be in the MA's best interest to whittle the GA down outside of Darius. Defeat in detail.

It appears the GA has already developed countermeasures. It goes a little something like this. 'Wait for flaming datum and hope for the best'.

penny wrote:How does that follow?

So you really see nothing strange in the Grand Alliance sending ships a very long distance to invade the area patrolled by a neutral system?

tlb wrote:

penny wrote:How does that follow?

So you really see nothing strange in the Grand Alliance sending ships a very long distance to invade the area patrolled by a neutral system?

If their research has led them to the conclusion that the system contains a WH that is the route for criminal activity against the GA, then no?

What would you expect the GA to do in that case; accept abject pacifism? 'Nah, ain't nothing going on here.' And just swallow it hook, line and sinker?