The Alamo Contingency has already failed

Relax wrote:Funny thing about sensors and computers... they don't "look" and "feel about" ... they just send telemetry...

Agreed. Abigail proved that. And that is their weakness. They just send telemetry where they're pointed.

relax wrote:So, NO, no one needs to "know" where to look at 1 light second. This is a 0 or a 1. Sensors are fixed in place to obtain exceedingly accurate positioning data to send a light beam out to a target at said distance. There is no way you can "move" said sensors in reality other than say, LONG distance scans which are meant for Millions upon Millions of kilometers. Now maybe DW is talking about LONG distance scans which ***Can*** be obtained using a moving sensor in a search pattern. But why? If you already MUST have said fixed sensors for using your own GRASERS/PDLC's, who reach out that distance to target and destroy... what is the point of 1 light second? That is lower than NORMAL Grader targeting distance.

Now said computer can be programmed wrong to NOT give a positive feedback or the offensive/defensive guy can give out false signals and pretend to look like say... a LAC or something but as soon as they do that, the Good guys will know INSTANTLY YOU are NOT one of them as They already KNOW where all their ships are. And 1 second later you are dead as a Graser meant to go through sidewalls will utterly eviscerate any Spider based Propulsion unless they can also have a spherical sidewall themselves(I think they can)... Of course bringing up a sidewall or even the telltales of warming up the sidewall generators is EASILY seen at Millions of Kilometers, let alone 1 light second... So...

I disagree.

We have already beaten this dead horse beginning here...

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=10729&hilit=Scans+have+to+be+directed&start=617

but since the horse is still moving, I have no objections to beating it some more.

Once upon a time I was a horndog. I was dating a girl in Jr. High whose father didn't care for her dating. He installed a motion detector around his home, and it suspiciously covered the area of the yard leading up to his daughters' balcony. So I couldn't get her a message or communicate with her after hrs. So he thought. My parents had installed a motion detector as well.

Funny thing about those sensors. Even modern day motion detectors have to be directed at a specific area. Guess what? Above them is a blind spot. I used a glider to land love letters on her balcony. I tested a very modern motion detector several years ago. When you are installing them, you test them. You can hold your hand inches from it just above the sensors. It is "blind as a bat."

Space is huge. Mind boggling and scan boggling huge. Abigail Hearns already showed us that scans have to be directed. "Direct your scans in this area right … here."

Please refer to the previously beaten horse.

.

kzt wrote:

Relax wrote:
The ONLY way obtaining Down-the-throat shot of 3s is against ships with nodes cold, sidewalls offline: Ship NOT maneuvering.

Due to the wedge geometry a long open shot at the rear is much easier to obtain. The problem is that the the torp has to reach that position. Which is easy to do only against the recent RMN parking lot formations.

Which I predict they will continue to use until they get their asses kicked and lose most of a fleet.

Having written that, it occurs that the another time you have a decent ability to position a weapon where the rear of the ship will encounter it is when it is decelerating. Which ships do for quite a long time in the honorverse.

Interesting post kzt!

There is also the possibility of a stealthed MA ship launching torpedoes in a timed fashion on a perfect intercept course to cross the aft T of a formation. This would require a perfectly timed shot and the providence of lucky positioning of an MA ship.

But that only mimics what an LDs counterpart - the first submarines - had to do anyway. They had to input variables of target speed, missile speed, etc., to time the arrival of the torpedo. The difference here is that supercomputers can accomplish the feat autonomously and a direct hit is not needed. And HV torps can alter course like modern torpedoes.

Also, even if a target(s) is moving, it may not necessarily be maneuvering in time of peace. Even if it is maneuvering, a second launch from a second, or more, stealthed ship can input guestimates of its future position. As subs of yore had to do with what amounts to a bunch of slide rules compared to today's computers. Let alone HV computers.

Something else. What is the separation of HV ships? 500km at 600 gravities? With 3-second firing grasers, GA ships can literally fly into the hellfire. Or take each other out trying to avoid it.

penny wrote:I have an ongoing disagreement about that 1 light-second. That came about from the musings of the MA's own people using their own sensors to detect their own (a cut above) stealthy hardware. And they knew where to look and they knew they were there. And it wasn't in the middle of the heat of battle. And it wasn't an attack on a completely oblivious target in time of peace. And that light-second was not referring to the LD, was it? I just cannot jump on that bandwagon just yet. Like Honor, I'll take it with a grain of salt.

Indeed. During the heat of battle, LDs against GA sensors would be detected even further out.

They're bigger targets, so by definition they're harder to protect. They have a smaller area per volume ratio, so they would have a harder time dissipating heat. They have more spiders too.

GA sensors are probably better than MAlign ones. We don't know for sure, but it's likely. They may not know what to look for until the first time they actually get proper readings off a MAlign stealth ship, but once they do know how to program their sensors, I believe it's going to be more difficult for the MAlign to hide.

Finally, during the heat of battle, the GA formations will have a shell of recon drones outside a shell of LACs, outside of a shell of escort ships. There's no way that a MAlign stealth ship or torpedo can get within half a million km of a GA capital ship without being detected.

The only question is whether that is far enough. If a thousand torpedoes get to half a million km and fire, and they have aspects not blocked by wedge to fire at, then they will cause damage. The Alliance Eighth Fleet was stopping 11,000-missile salvoes dead way back at Operation Cutworm with just 2 Invictus SD(P)s, but they were seeing those missiles from millions of km out and the outer interception ratio started from at least 3x that half-million detection range. We probably got numbers on how many did get through to the PDLC interception range before firing. On the other hand, those thousands of missiles were coming past at 0.85c and that's why they were difficult to take down. Graser torpedoes are much larger and much slower, so they can be much more easily taken down if detected.

In other words, against a single GF battle squadron, the MAN would need to fire 20,000 graser torpedoes. Do they have that many?

The LDs will use a tactic to herd the faster wedges into an awaiting web. Says the Spider to the flies.

They would need to. The question is how.

penny wrote:I have an ongoing disagreement about that 1 light-second. That came about from the musings of the MA's own people using their own sensors to detect their own (a cut above) stealthy hardware. And they knew where to look and they knew they were there. And it wasn't in the middle of the heat of battle. And it wasn't an attack on a completely oblivious target in time of peace. And that light-second was not referring to the LD, was it? I just cannot jump on that bandwagon just yet. Like Honor, I'll take it with a grain of salt.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:Indeed. During the heat of battle, LDs against GA sensors would be detected even further out.

They're bigger targets, so by definition they're harder to protect. They have a smaller area per volume ratio, so they would have a harder time dissipating heat. They have more spiders too.

GA sensors are probably better than MAlign ones. We don't know for sure, but it's likely. They may not know what to look for until the first time they actually get proper readings off a MAlign stealth ship, but once they do know how to program their sensors, I believe it's going to be more difficult for the MAlign to hide.

Finally, during the heat of battle, the GA formations will have a shell of recon drones outside a shell of LACs, outside of a shell of escort ships. There's no way that a MAlign stealth ship or torpedo can get within half a million km of a GA capital ship without being detected.

It may be that Penny is only thinking about the detection of the Spider drive (which we have no reason to believe that the GA can detect), while others (including ThinksMarkedly and myself) are talking about detection based on the impossibility of maintaining stealth throughout all aspects of the sphere. The quotes that I supplied earlier show that the stealthy Malign ships will certainly be observed if recon drones can get to their bad side.

tlb wrote:It may be that Penny is only thinking about the detection of the Spider drive (which we have no reason to believe that the GA can detect), while others (including ThinksMarkedly and myself) are talking about detection based on the impossibility of maintaining stealth throughout all aspects of the sphere. The quotes that I supplied earlier show that the stealthy Malign ships will certainly be observed if recon drones can get to their bad side.

Indeed.

I am getting the feeling that the entire MAN military strategy is based on the flawed assumption of an enemy that is clueless, can't fight, and is on peace-time footing. That makes sense based on the weapons they've developed, the attacks we've seen by spider vehicles so far, the Inner Onion arrogance, and other clues. It fits with their mentality and we know RFC likes to drop hints like that. He said for example that the Peeps focused their intelligence services on political espionage and infiltration, thereby missing the actual military build up for what it was in Manticore. History could repeat itself here.

They did have a proper military in the Galton Navy. We know the original Plan was to pit Haven against the League and this was in place much earlier than the Streak or Spider Drives could have been developed, so I conclude the Galton Navy was supposed to be both the chaos-causing element and the source of stability through the Renaissance Factor (through technology transfer). But this is now off the board, so the entire know-how of how to fight traditionally is also likely gone.

penny wrote:I have an ongoing disagreement about that 1 light-second. That came about from the musings of the MA's own people using their own sensors to detect their own (a cut above) stealthy hardware. And they knew where to look and they knew they were there. And it wasn't in the middle of the heat of battle. And it wasn't an attack on a completely oblivious target in time of peace. And that light-second was not referring to the LD, was it? I just cannot jump on that bandwagon just yet. Like Honor, I'll take it with a grain of salt.

Thinksmarkedly wrote:Indeed. During the heat of battle, LDs against GA sensors would be detected even further out.

A very dangerous assumption. Especially in the heat of battle. At Galton, the GA was not under any pressure. Galton literally rolled over and played dead. Honor's ships were mostly never under attack until Galton's Hail Mary at the end. The GA was able to calmly search the waters for targets.

In the Darius System, GR drones will be eaten. That will only alert the GA that there are sharks in the water. Not Spiders. The GA will know something is eating RDs. But what? And where?

Thinksmarkedly wrote:They're bigger targets, so by definition they're harder to protect. They have a smaller area per volume ratio, so they would have a harder time dissipating heat. They have more spiders too.

I think we need to abandon the waste heat problem. It just does not exist as a problem in the HV as a variable that affects detection. As far as the LD goes, it could turn out that the Spider drive handles waste heat even better.

Thinksmarkedly wrote:GA sensors are probably better than MAlign ones. We don't know for sure, but it's likely.

That is illogic. It is a given that MA stealth is a cut above GA's stealth. It is logical that since the MA has a more stealthy object to detect that it will lead to better sensors. When one has better toys to play with, one develops better hardware. We have already seen the proof of that with the development of the ... Silver Bullet???

Thinksmarkedly wrote:They may not know what to look for until the first time they actually get proper readings off a MAlign stealth ship, but once they do know how to program their sensors, I believe it's going to be more difficult for the MAlign to hide.

Maybe. Perhaps. Unless those readings are a result of close proximity whereby GA sensors burn through the stealth. It does not necessarily follow it will happen again at range. Also, who is to say that a reading on a Ghost will be the same as a reading on an LD. OOPS!

Thinksmarkedly wrote:Finally, during the heat of battle, the GA formations will have a shell of recon drones outside a shell of LACs, outside of a shell of escort ships. There's no way that a MAlign stealth ship or torpedo can get within half a million km of a GA capital ship without being detected.

In the Darius System that is a moot point. The GA ain't gonna be able to waste recon drones sitting around the fleet. In the Darius System those recon drones will be taken out by massive launches. Use them or lose them will also apply to that shell of recon drones.

Thinksmarkedly wrote:The only question is whether that is far enough. If a thousand torpedoes get to half a million km and fire, and they have aspects not blocked by wedge to fire at, then they will cause damage.

A lot of damage if that fleet is moving at 600 gravities into grasers whose hellfire is lasting for 3-seconds. Heck, it seems that another tactic available to grasers is proximity kills. Fly into the hellfire GA! As I posited in the Attacking Darius thread, the GA will be forced to slow down and beat the jungle like our American forces on the ground in Viet Nam. Thus nullifying their speed advantage.

Thinksmarkedly wrote:The Alliance Eighth Fleet was stopping 11,000-missile salvoes dead way back at Operation Cutworm with just 2 Invictus SD(P)s, but they were seeing those missiles from millions of km out and the outer interception ratio started from at least 3x that half-million detection range.

No need to comment since you realize that the GA could see those missiles.

Thinksmarkedly wrote:We probably got numbers on how many did get through to the PDLC interception range before firing. On the other hand, those thousands of missiles were coming past at 0.85c and that's why they were difficult to take down. Graser torpedoes are much larger and much slower, so they can be much more easily taken down if detected.

That is another assumption and it disregards the fact that the GA will be focused on the MA's new missiles with wedges. It also does not allow for MA EW. At any rate - at least in the Darius System - massive launches of wedge based missiles will work in tandem with graser missiles and torps. When point defense is focusing on wedges, stealthy ordnance becomes even stealthier. Scotty "Guns" will be proud of the even more inherently inherent stealth.

Thinksmarkedly wrote:In other words, against a single GF battle squadron, the MAN would need to fire 20,000 graser torpedoes. Do they have that many?

The bidding starts beyond 20,000 in the Darius System. Remember, I pointed out some time ago that Attacking Darius won't be as easy as everyone thinks. The GA's recon drones will be eaten, and Darius won't be dependent on colliers and supplies.

In the MBS, that question makes more sense, if it weren't for the fact that surprise negates the amount of firepower needed. See Honor at Cerberus.



Since Spiders are ambush predators by nature

How much more stealthy would an LD be if it is sitting in space and not moving? How stealthy are wedge based ships with wedges shut down? Traditionally, submarines were even harder to detect while they are sitting on the ocean floor. While immobile, is that when the smart paint comes into play?

Manticore was producing over a thousand missile pods per day. So I ask you, how heavy do you think the defenses of Darius might be given the have been preparing for years? How

penny wrote:I think we need to abandon the waste heat problem. It just does not exist as a problem in the HV as a variable that affects detection. As far as the LD goes, it could turn out that the Spider drive handles waste heat even better.

That statement runs completely counter to the text I have provided which shows that the spider drive captain was very concerned with recon drones getting on the wrong side of his ship and making detection a certainty.

At Galton, there is NO evidence that the Ghost-Rider drones were detected at a high rate. So are you suggesting that there is more stuff which Darius refused to give to Galton? The only Malign technology we know was refused is the spider drive.

The success of the Silver Bullets at Beowulf does not demonstrate anything more than the planetary forces were not expecting a sneak attack.

kzt wrote:Manticore was producing over a thousand missile pods per day. So I ask you, how heavy do you think the defenses of Darius might be given the have been preparing for years? How

How? Easy. For years, I have been displaying a great big neon sign about how the MA can solve problems which only require time. Like getting those 100 LDs ready for their main showdown with the GA.

It is via pixie dust - delivered by literary authorial proxy - distributed throughout the HV via handwavium. It is the same magic that produced an entirely new MA system out of thin air. POOF! "Let there be Galton," the god of the HV decreed.

tlb wrote:

penny wrote:I think we need to abandon the waste heat problem. It just does not exist as a problem in the HV as a variable that affects detection. As far as the LD goes, it could turn out that the Spider drive handles waste heat even better.

That statement runs completely counter to the text I have provided which shows that the spider drive captain was very concerned with recon drones getting on the wrong side of his ship and making detection a certainty.

At Galton, there is NO evidence that the Ghost-Rider drones were detected at a high rate. So are you suggesting that there is more stuff which Darius refused to give to Galton? The only Malign technology we know was refused is the spider drive.

The success of the Silver Bullets at Beowulf does not demonstrate anything more than the planetary forces were not expecting a sneak attack.

Holy Smoke! The success of the Silver Bullets - and by relation all of the MA's tech - was and will be successful because the GA will not be expecting it??? Like I have been broadcasting for years? Even several times upstream? As in the opening attack on the MBS in a time of peace? By an ambush predator?

Not expected is the very definition of ambush predator.

LD = Spider = submarine = subterfuge = sneak attack

The point is that the Silver Bullets were not detected, and I am certain the GA was scanning the system. It isn't like they trusted the upstanding SLN.

Could you point me to the passage you posted about the spider drive captain again please?