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The Alamo Contingency has already failed

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Re: The Alamo Contingency has already failed
Post by penny   » Mon Sep 25, 2023 6:57 pm

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kzt wrote:If max range is a LS (which seems very optimistic) and you are moving at 80% C you have 0.8 sec. At 50,000 km it’s 0.2 sec and a much easier to target platform.

But you certainly are not fitting a CA class graser and PS in a 300ton missile. So your weapon probably won’t be made to operate for more and .5 sec once. But that seems challenging, grasers are will understand tech in the honorverse, so making one that small should be impossible.

That should be 1.6 seconds and .4 seconds respectively if the g-missiles can maintain target even while it passes. Even w/o an extended range.
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Re: The Alamo Contingency has already failed
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Mon Sep 25, 2023 10:06 pm

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penny wrote:That should be 1.6 seconds and .4 seconds respectively if the g-missiles can maintain target even while it passes. Even w/o an extended range.


We've already discussed this that the issue is the opening of the wedge. That's not thousands of km; it's merely a few hundred. Even if it is flying past at 0.1c, it will cross the 200 km from top to bottom of the wedge in 6.6 ms. And even if you add the fact that the ship can be seen inside said wedge from slightly before and slightly after the warhead has crossed the roof and floor of the wedge, it won't account for more than 13 ms.

The graser torpedo wasn't designed to fight GA ships that completely turn wedge-on to their foes and can still fight, controlling its own attack missiles, and defend themselves. It was designed to fight pre-Second War ships that did need to keep broadside-on, with just sidewalls to defend themselves. The g-torp would have a perfect view of such a ship and its 3-second shot would very likely burn through said sidewall, hitting the ship itself.

Or, even more likely, it was designed to attack unprepared targets that have not turned wedge-on or maybe even their said wedges. You know, sneakily and without a warning.
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Re: The Alamo Contingency has already failed
Post by penny   » Thu Sep 28, 2023 7:42 am

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ThinksMarkedly wrote:
penny wrote:That should be 1.6 seconds and .4 seconds respectively if the g-missiles can maintain target even while it passes. Even w/o an extended range.


We've already discussed this that the issue is the opening of the wedge. That's not thousands of km; it's merely a few hundred. Even if it is flying past at 0.1c, it will cross the 200 km from top to bottom of the wedge in 6.6 ms. And even if you add the fact that the ship can be seen inside said wedge from slightly before and slightly after the warhead has crossed the roof and floor of the wedge, it won't account for more than 13 ms.

I trust your calculations, but your premise is wrong. I was not referencing the time it takes to fly by, which would be more aptly applicable to GA missiles. GA missiles have to wait for optimum firing range since it can only fire for several ms at best.

I am specifically discussing the fact that g-missiles can begin to engage from their max range and continue firing even after it has passed, since it can fire for 3-seconds.


Thinksmarkedly wrote:The graser torpedo wasn't designed to fight GA ships that completely turn wedge-on to their foes and can still fight, controlling its own attack missiles, and defend themselves. It was designed to fight pre-Second War ships that did need to keep broadside-on, with just sidewalls to defend themselves. The g-torp would have a perfect view of such a ship and its 3-second shot would very likely burn through said sidewall, hitting the ship itself.

Or, even more likely, it was designed to attack unprepared targets that have not turned wedge-on or maybe even their said wedges. You know, sneakily and without a warning.


In one of my other threads, I suggested that g-torps (LDs) will attack simultaneously with traditional warships as a distraction. The GA (and GA sensors) will be focused on missiles with wedges, possible allowing stealthy g-torps to fly in "under the radar."

Thus, I see g-missiles as the precursors for that tactic. It would be akin to Honor's common tactic of "show the enemy exactly what they wish to see."
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Re: The Alamo Contingency has already failed
Post by Jonathan_S   » Thu Sep 28, 2023 10:41 am

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penny wrote:
ThinksMarkedly wrote:We've already discussed this that the issue is the opening of the wedge. That's not thousands of km; it's merely a few hundred. Even if it is flying past at 0.1c, it will cross the 200 km from top to bottom of the wedge in 6.6 ms. And even if you add the fact that the ship can be seen inside said wedge from slightly before and slightly after the warhead has crossed the roof and floor of the wedge, it won't account for more than 13 ms.

I trust your calculations, but your premise is wrong. I was not referencing the time it takes to fly by, which would be more aptly applicable to GA missiles. GA missiles have to wait for optimum firing range since it can only fire for several ms at best.

I am specifically discussing the fact that g-missiles can begin to engage from their max range and continue firing even after it has passed, since it can fire for 3-seconds.

But the extended firing isn't helpful against a target that has its wedge towards the missile -- the new default combat orientation for GA ships.

In that case, sure, it could fire for a 3-seconds on the way in; but all it'd be able to shoot at that target's wedge -- which would totally ignore the graser. (Well, I guess it could try to go after the target's keyholes; as those have to be well outside the wedge - and hardly need a 3-second burn to kill; assuming you can hit them in the first place)

Regardless of how long its warhead can duration an incoming missile attacking an alert GA ship can only engage it in the split second the missile overflys the ship - either passing ahead, astern, over, or under it because that's the only interval when the wedge isn't interposed between the missiles and the ship. At least unless you're lucky enough to catch the GA formation in a pincer and having missiles coming in from widely divergent bearings so they can't impose wedge against all of them simultaneously.

But in normal single bearing attacks where the wedge is rolled against them, at missile terminal velocities that overflight (before the far wedge interposes itself again) is far, far, shorter than 3-seconds; which makes the extended graser duration useless in that (most common) scenario.



Now the spider torps can, potentially, overcome that limitation because they're so stealthy, and generally moving so slowly, that they can be expected to sneak around to a position where they can use their entire 3-second warhead without the wedge interposing. But a g-missile doesn't have that luxury because the target can see it coming and roll wedge -- which, again, is now the normal GA tactic against any missiles.
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Re: The Alamo Contingency has already failed
Post by Theemile   » Thu Sep 28, 2023 11:12 am

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Jonathan_S wrote:<snip>

Now the spider torps can, potentially, overcome that limitation because they're so stealthy, and generally moving so slowly, that they can be expected to sneak around to a position where they can use their entire 3-second warhead without the wedge interposing. But a g-missile doesn't have that luxury because the target can see it coming and roll wedge -- which, again, is now the normal GA tactic against any missiles.


But that brings up the biggest tactical weakness of the G-Torp - it's 250G max acceleration. It simply can't run down any warship targets, and it can't reliably intercept a maneuvering formation, because the targeted formation can potentially create a delta V that the G-torp simply cannot match- Targets can simply run out of the G-torp's engagement boxes, without ever knowing that the Gtorp had been fired on them. (Invicti have been mentioned accelerating at 607g or almost 2.5x that of the Gtorp.)

Which is not to say that a properly spotted Gtorp cannot hit a moving target - but the target has to be sheparded into a very precise basket to be hit, and even at that, a cloud of Gtorps may be needed to cover the multitude of possible movement vectors, and most will miss even in the best of cases.
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Re: The Alamo Contingency has already failed
Post by penny   » Thu Sep 28, 2023 12:59 pm

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penny wrote:
ThinksMarkedly wrote:We've already discussed this that the issue is the opening of the wedge. That's not thousands of km; it's merely a few hundred. Even if it is flying past at 0.1c, it will cross the 200 km from top to bottom of the wedge in 6.6 ms. And even if you add the fact that the ship can be seen inside said wedge from slightly before and slightly after the warhead has crossed the roof and floor of the wedge, it won't account for more than 13 ms.

I trust your calculations, but your premise is wrong. I was not referencing the time it takes to fly by, which would be more aptly applicable to GA missiles. GA missiles have to wait for optimum firing range since it can only fire for several ms at best.

I am specifically discussing the fact that g-missiles can begin to engage from their max range and continue firing even after it has passed, since it can fire for 3-seconds.

Jonathan_s wrote:But the extended firing isn't helpful against a target that has its wedge towards the missile -- the new default combat orientation for GA ships.

You are in all likelihood correct about a rolled wedge. But that assumes the GA will have time to roll wedge by the time a stealthy attack is spotted. As you said, the GA's new doctrine is to roll wedge, but previously there has been occasion where sluggish ships didn't have time. But wedges cannot be rolled against a foe or attack that cannot be seen. Possibly until it is too late.

Jonathan_S wrote:In that case, sure, it could fire for a 3-seconds on the way in; but all it'd be able to shoot at that target's wedge -- which would totally ignore the graser. (Well, I guess it could try to go after the target's keyholes; as those have to be well outside the wedge - and hardly need a 3-second burn to kill; assuming you can hit them in the first place)

MA weapons may be able to "create" a shot down the throat of a wedge because it fires longer. IOW, I expect there to be a lot more "golden BBs". A lot-a-lot.

Jonathan_S wrote:Regardless of how long its warhead can duration an incoming missile attacking an alert GA ship can only engage it in the split second the missile overflys the ship - either passing ahead, astern, over, or under it because that's the only interval when the wedge isn't interposed between the missiles and the ship. At least unless you're lucky enough to catch the GA formation in a pincer and having missiles coming in from widely divergent bearings so they can't impose wedge against all of them simultaneously.

But in normal single bearing attacks where the wedge is rolled against them, at missile terminal velocities that overflight (before the far wedge interposes itself again) is far, far, shorter than 3-seconds; which makes the extended graser duration useless in that (most common) scenario.

I never imagined firing for 3-seconds on the way in, but perhaps 1.5-seconds on the way in and 1.5 seconds after it has passed and the sidewalls are faltering/weakened.

And again, as I also posited in another thread - like the LD's counterparts the submarines - they may attack in packs from different bearings AND from much closer in. Thus making interposing the wedge impossible. I also suggested, once upon a time, that attacking from as close as I posit the LDs and/or their stealthy torps and missiles can get before detection, might also not leave enough time to roll wedge.



Jonathan_S wrote:Now the spider torps can, potentially, overcome that limitation because they're so stealthy, and generally moving so slowly, that they can be expected to sneak around to a position where they can use their entire 3-second warhead without the wedge interposing. But a g-missile doesn't have that luxury because the target can see it coming and roll wedge -- which, again, is now the normal GA tactic against any missiles.

See above. The g-missiles are stealthy as well aren't they? How soon will they be detected? And do they have the hybrid ability to be launched as g-torps then cut in their wedges like I posited long ago.

Or vice versa. Starting out with wedges and then cutting in a spider drive with the same result as being invisible because they are now ballistic, but also with a spider drive activated.

Are we assuming that the large volume of the MA's weapons continues to be for the same reason? Or could the volume now be attributed to their new hybrid mode? These Alphas aren't just twiddling their thumbs in their garages. How much more deadly will their weapons be after breaking the secret of the mini Manty powerplant; where textev has witnessed they are close to doing.

Summary. Ships cannot roll wedge against targets they cannot see or, worse, against Spiders and Sharks that they aren't even aware are infesting the waters. Like the surprise opening attack in time of peace.

Again, the MA is the first opponent that actually has the tools for a "short victorious war." Because of the realities of this being the HV, I doubt it too. But I certainly expect there to be many short victorious battles that goes the MA way.
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Re: The Alamo Contingency has already failed
Post by Theemile   » Thu Sep 28, 2023 2:13 pm

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penny wrote:
Summary. Ships cannot roll wedge against targets they cannot see or, worse, against Spiders and Sharks that they aren't even aware are infesting the waters. Like the surprise opening attack in time of peace.

Again, the MA is the first opponent that actually has the tools for a "short victorious war." Because of the realities of this being the HV, I doubt it too. But I certainly expect there to be many short victorious battles that goes the MA way.


Ships under power are always "rolled" against some vector - their vulnerable angles are actually a thin band less then 15 degrees wide on average on the side, more in front and less in the back - almost 90% of the spherical direct LoS to the Ship is blocked by the wedge at any time. The only reason the wedge doesn't randomly block traditional ship to ship combat is traditionally combatants intentionally point their vulnerable openings TOWARDS their opponents in a fight, because that is the only way they can shoot back at their opponents. A random weapon fired out of the dark at an unsuspecting, blind target will hit it's wedge nearly 90% of the time.
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Re: The Alamo Contingency has already failed
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Thu Sep 28, 2023 6:09 pm

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Theemile wrote:Ships under power are always "rolled" against some vector - their vulnerable angles are actually a thin band less then 15 degrees wide on average on the side, more in front and less in the back


And in a battle formation, this is even worse because of the formations themselves. In a wall formation, only the ships near the edges will be vulnerable. Those in the middle will be blocked by the wedge of the other ships. It won't and can't be perfect -- that would require too much coordination and therefore might be too predictable -- but it will suffice to block the view of the inner ships' direct line of sight. Even if it doesn't, it will interfere with the torpedo's ability to sense where the inner ships are located.

A torpedo could attempt to hit more than one ship with its 3-second beam, but that sounds too unlikely. The ships aren't that near each other (separation must be in the order of a thousand km) and they will be randomly weaving around.

Though I need to correct myself on the time between wedges. I calculated it for something that just cleared it longitudinally, but there's no way the torpedo would ever pass that close. How close, we don't actually know. We know that GA missiles do get to within 50,000 km before firing: from that distance, a 15° aperture is 13100 km long, which a vehicle flying past at 0.1c would cross in 44 ms.

If I had to make g-torps work, I'd send them on courses that arc towards the target, so as to minimise the perpendicular velocity and maximise the time towards the target. Ideally that would be a circular course, which would produce zero perpendicular velocity, but that's impossible against a target that isn't cooperating. If such an arcing attack works, then the torpedo would have a lot of time seeing up the kilt or down the throat of the target ships to localise them before opening fire.

But there are many reasons why this may not work. First, the targets aren't sitting still and shouldn't be on a predictable course. The torpedoes' low acceleration may mean they can't react to sudden course changes and therefore could miss the target completely. The attackers would need to send a lot of torpedoes to cover a range of possibilities.

Second, we don't know from how far the torpedoes would be able to fire. How good are their sensors against capital ships in full battle readiness, escorted by smaller ships? We don't know and, crucially, the MAN doesn't know either. The moment they start firing, they will be engaged by the defences of the formation, so they have to be sure.

Third, we don't know how far along the torpedoes can afford to wait. We know the MAN couldn't detect their own ships at a full light-second, but we don't know when torpedoes' stealth would burn through against GA ships, with escorts and a cloud of recon drones. A stealth attack may not be possible at all; it would need to depend on speed which those torpedoes don't have, or a diversion.
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Re: The Alamo Contingency has already failed
Post by kzt   » Fri Sep 29, 2023 3:39 am

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penny wrote:
Summary. Ships cannot roll wedge against targets they cannot see or, worse, against Spiders and Sharks that they aren't even aware are infesting the waters. Like the surprise opening attack in time of peace.

Again, the MA is the first opponent that actually has the tools for a "short victorious war." Because of the realities of this being the HV, I doubt it too. But I certainly expect there to be many short victorious battles that goes the MA way.

The RMN, due to concern about node life, makes it a habit to have cold nodes when practical. See the fleet at Beowulf. This makes it obvious that they do not consider the threat of invisible graser wielding death machines as worth altering their SOP. So I would expect that some people might get fatally suprised.

And if you force them to run not just hot but wedge, sidewall and buckler up all the time I’d expect so very serious availability problems to follow in a few months.
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Re: The Alamo Contingency has already failed
Post by Relax   » Fri Sep 29, 2023 5:48 am

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penny wrote:
Jonathan_S wrote:In that case, sure, it could fire for a 3-seconds on the way in; but all it'd be able to shoot at that target's wedge -- which would totally ignore the graser. (Well, I guess it could try to go after the target's keyholes; as those have to be well outside the wedge - and hardly need a 3-second burn to kill; assuming you can hit them in the first place)

MA weapons may be able to "create" a shot down the throat of a wedge because it fires longer. IOW, I expect there to be a lot more "golden BBs". A lot-a-lot.


Penny, hello, welcome to board.
My kid is sick so, may as well post late at night!

You need this: https://infodump.thefifthimperium.com/e ... ton/100/1/

Down-the-throat, up-the-kilt shot having greater duration than 0.2s even at LONG ranges = impossible. Certainly not a second or 3.

Why: Wedge/Sidewall Geometry, Closing Velocities, stand off distance etc. Math.

Sidewalls extend forward/aft to wedge extremities.

Wedge is 300km on a side. Ship length? 1km. Sidewall distance from ship? 10km. A triangle 20km wide by 150km long.
Angle = ~7.6 DEGREES, or 3.8 degrees from zero. ~4 degrees

Using same missile tech:

1) Missiles ability to acquire, discern, aim, be it LASER or GRASER is identical. A label of Graser Torp does not magically change this.

2) Missiles Gravitic concentrating power(how dispersed the beam is). Unless we are going to claim MA has RMN gravitic lens tech... But for this exercise lets assume they do.

On big ships difference between GRASER/LASER is 500,000km/300,000km, or was it 400,000km for LASER? Lets call it 60% increase in range.

Missiles are Not ship based Grasers/Lasers. Their Stand off attack range: 30,000km was considered long in 1st Havenite War, where 30,000km is standard in 2nd Havenite war, so a nice 60% increase obtains 50,000km(RMN style and no one else), but lets assume the MA can do it :D Note the nice comparison to above numbers(Yes authors also like nice round numbers as well as it makes story time easier to write and readers to understand)

Tangential shot: Length of 7.5 degree @ 50,000km is? ~6500 km

Closing delta vel 0.1c (yea right) but lets give best... Time for "continuous" fire = ~0.2s. ... Not 3.

Closing Delta Vel 0.8c: "continuous" fire= ~0.03s... Not 3s

BEST SCENARIO: Chase. Assume: ships are not skewed more than 4degrees(why the Hell would they not be? Cosine of 4deg = 0.9976)

Assume Captain, Sir, Idiot McDUNCE, in chase scenario, and does NOT have a 4 degree skew to opponent :roll: . ONLY if one uses a Graser Torpedo as a ~mine with ZERO wedge/spider or acceleration towards ship and a closing delta V under 50,000km/3seconds = 17,000km/s closing Delta V could one POSSIBLY ever use the 3 second firing time. If there was even a 4 degree delta skew(or 4 degree delta Velocity not overcome by Graser Torps acceleration) between BOTH ships, this could never happen.

Personally, I think David Weber's 3second firing duration = fumble fingered OOPS moment where he actually meant to enter 0.3second. 0.3s is still 100X longer duration than a ~0.003s duration LASER.

So, will Graser Torps radically change warfare into "a lot a lot" of Down-the-throat shots? Sorry; No.

The ONLY way obtaining Down-the-throat shot of 3s is against ships with nodes cold, sidewalls offline: Ship NOT maneuvering.
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