Honorverse ramblings and musings

cthia wrote:Aside:
By the way. Does any of the unread books on my list contain Earth's ugly years? Pre-diaspora I suppose? That would make for an interesting meat&potatoes read.

Beginnings, called "By the book"" IIRC has one on a highly integritable officer related to the financial collapse that triggered events that resulted in the Diaspora.

SharkHunter wrote:

cthia wrote:Aside:
By the way. Does any of the unread books on my list contain Earth's ugly years? Pre-diaspora I suppose? That would make for an interesting meat&potatoes read.

Beginnings, called "By the book"" IIRC has one on a highly integritable officer related to the financial collapse that triggered events that resulted in the Diaspora.

'Why, thank you my good fellow,' in Houseman's best drawl while twisting the end of my (minimal) moustache.

cthia wrote:I'm aware that most League member states want to "succeed from the union." After all, that, in no small part, is what Alexander-Harrington is counting on. However, I cannot believe that there are not any member states out of the very huge League that aren't loyal. Remember, the League is huge. In that vastness, there should be a "core" of loyal member states. It is this core in which I refer. And as large as the League is, a small core would still represent a large enough sample against the upstart neobarbs and enough to start the impetus rolling. It is what I was thinking anyways. If I am wrong, then what the hell was all of the initial worry from Harrington&Co? And more importantly, how did ONI miss such an important fact? In fact, how is it that the entire Honorverse isn't aware of such dissention? It doesn't seem realistic that that sort of hatred within your own constituents could remain hidden. Now I'm aware of Frontier Security's heavy hand in controlling that, and the fear factor that controlled many. But there aren't any loyal enough core worlds?

It's not so much that the various systems of the League have been itching for an excuse to dissolve. It seems to me that it's more that they've mostly not thought about it and just drifted along on inertia. Yeah, they know the League has problems, but none of those are affecting them all that much, and everything's going along satisfactorily enough.

But now things are getting ugly and their governments and people are having to confront a change. So suddenly they're wondering which is better:
1) digging in for a long, hard, fight to stick up for a flawed system that seems to have gone out of its way to bring this trouble down on itself (and all the members). or
2) Cutting their losses, pulling out, and making a separate peace with Manticore so they can get back to their nice boring existence with trade restored and their economy not crashing.


ONI definitely knew that there were potential fracture lines in the League. But what everyone was worried about was that the standing SLN was big enough that if they'd misjudged the tech edge that it didn't matter if the League systems were interested in a long war or not; the SLN could roll over anybody simply on the say-so of the Mandarins with basically zero impact on League members.
Up until 15-30 years ago that 'everybody' included the RMN. If Raging Justice [edit to fix name] had come in, even with the same level of advanced warning, at the beginning of the first war the League Navy would have been dictating terms from Manticoran Orbit - despite all the same latent flaws existing within the League. Those flaws would never have been exposed to stress because their Navy was big enough that it's routine peacetime strength, was sufficient to overwhelm pretty much any opponent.

It just didn't matter that politically it might have been centuries since it had staying power, since it would win any fight in a first (or maybe second) round knockout. And that's extra scary; because it doesn't require that they sell the necessity of the war to an involved populace - it could almost happen at a whim.

Jonathan_S wrote:

cthia wrote:I'm aware that most League member states want to "succeed from the union." After all, that, in no small part, is what Alexander-Harrington is counting on. However, I cannot believe that there are not any member states out of the very huge League that aren't loyal. Remember, the League is huge. In that vastness, there should be a "core" of loyal member states. It is this core in which I refer. And as large as the League is, a small core would still represent a large enough sample against the upstart neobarbs and enough to start the impetus rolling. It is what I was thinking anyways. If I am wrong, then what the hell was all of the initial worry from Harrington&Co? And more importantly, how did ONI miss such an important fact? In fact, how is it that the entire Honorverse isn't aware of such dissention? It doesn't seem realistic that that sort of hatred within your own constituents could remain hidden. Now I'm aware of Frontier Security's heavy hand in controlling that, and the fear factor that controlled many. But there aren't any loyal enough core worlds?

It's not so much that the various systems of the League have been itching for an excuse to dissolve. It seems to me that it's more that they've mostly not thought about it and just drifted along on inertia. Yeah, they know the League has problems, but none of those are affecting them all that much, and everything's going along satisfactorily enough.

But now things are getting ugly and their governments and people are having to confront a change. So suddenly they're wondering which is better:
1) digging in for a long, hard, fight to stick up for a flawed system that seems to have gone out of its way to bring this trouble down on itself (and all the members). or
2) Cutting their losses, pulling out, and making a separate peace with Manticore so they can get back to their nice boring existence with trade restored and their economy not crashing.


ONI definitely knew that there were potential fracture lines in the League. But what everyone was worried about was that the standing SLN was big enough that if they'd misjudged the tech edge that it didn't matter if the League systems were interested in a long war or not; the SLN could roll over anybody simply on the say-so of the Mandarins with basically zero impact on League members.
Up until 15-30 years ago that 'everybody' included the RMN. If Raging Thunder had come in, even with the same level of advanced warning, at the beginning of the first war the League Navy would have been dictating terms from Manticoran Orbit - despite all the same latent flaws existing within the League. Those flaws would never have been exposed to stress because their Navy was big enough that it's routine peacetime strength, was sufficient to overwhelm pretty much any opponent.

It just didn't matter that politically it might have been centuries since it had staying power, since it would win any fight in a first (or maybe second) round knockout. And that's extra scary; because it doesn't require that they sell the necessity of the war to an involved populace - it could almost happen at a whim.

Raging Thunder? I had to think about that one for a minute... It was Rolling Thunder and Raging Justice...Glad the Republic hadn't gotten together with the League!

Don

Jonathan_S wrote:

cthia wrote:I'm aware that most League member states want to "succeed from the union." After all, that, in no small part, is what Alexander-Harrington is counting on. However, I cannot believe that there are not any member states out of the very huge League that aren't loyal. Remember, the League is huge. In that vastness, there should be a "core" of loyal member states. It is this core in which I refer. And as large as the League is, a small core would still represent a large enough sample against the upstart neobarbs and enough to start the impetus rolling. It is what I was thinking anyways. If I am wrong, then what the hell was all of the initial worry from Harrington&Co? And more importantly, how did ONI miss such an important fact? In fact, how is it that the entire Honorverse isn't aware of such dissention? It doesn't seem realistic that that sort of hatred within your own constituents could remain hidden. Now I'm aware of Frontier Security's heavy hand in controlling that, and the fear factor that controlled many. But there aren't any loyal enough core worlds?

It's not so much that the various systems of the League have been itching for an excuse to dissolve. It seems to me that it's more that they've mostly not thought about it and just drifted along on inertia. Yeah, they know the League has problems, but none of those are affecting them all that much, and everything's going along satisfactorily enough.

But now things are getting ugly and their governments and people are having to confront a change. So suddenly they're wondering which is better:
1) digging in for a long, hard, fight to stick up for a flawed system that seems to have gone out of its way to bring this trouble down on itself (and all the members). or
2) Cutting their losses, pulling out, and making a separate peace with Manticore so they can get back to their nice boring existence with trade restored and their economy not crashing.


ONI definitely knew that there were potential fracture lines in the League. But what everyone was worried about was that the standing SLN was big enough that if they'd misjudged the tech edge that it didn't matter if the League systems were interested in a long war or not; the SLN could roll over anybody simply on the say-so of the Mandarins with basically zero impact on League members.
Up until 15-30 years ago that 'everybody' included the RMN. If Raging Thunder had come in, even with the same level of advanced warning, at the beginning of the first war the League Navy would have been dictating terms from Manticoran Orbit - despite all the same latent flaws existing within the League. Those flaws would never have been exposed to stress because their Navy was big enough that it's routine peacetime strength, was sufficient to overwhelm pretty much any opponent.

It just didn't matter that politically it might have been centuries since it had staying power, since it would win any fight in a first (or maybe second) round knockout. And that's extra scary; because it doesn't require that they sell the necessity of the war to an involved populace - it could almost happen at a whim.

n7axw wrote:Raging Thunder? I had to think about that one for a minute... It was Rolling Thunder and Raging Justice...Glad the Republic hadn't gotten together with the League!

Don

Funny Don. It threw me off as well, then I recognized what he meant.

However, I thank Johnathan for making a very important point regarding my understanding and take on things. And that is the fact that the RMN initially underestimated their tech advantage. They had no way of knowing how outclassed the League would ultimately be when Alexander-Harrington&Co. were formulating their plan to splinter the League. Very profound point Johnathan-along with your others.

If they had been aware of their absolute tech advantage, would the plan have taken on a totally different shape?

Jonathan_S wrote:

cthia wrote:I'm aware that most League member states want to "succeed from the union." After all, that, in no small part, is what Alexander-Harrington is counting on. However, I cannot believe that there are not any member states out of the very huge League that aren't loyal. Remember, the League is huge. In that vastness, there should be a "core" of loyal member states. It is this core in which I refer. And as large as the League is, a small core would still represent a large enough sample against the upstart neobarbs and enough to start the impetus rolling. It is what I was thinking anyways. If I am wrong, then what the hell was all of the initial worry from Harrington&Co? And more importantly, how did ONI miss such an important fact? In fact, how is it that the entire Honorverse isn't aware of such dissention? It doesn't seem realistic that that sort of hatred within your own constituents could remain hidden. Now I'm aware of Frontier Security's heavy hand in controlling that, and the fear factor that controlled many. But there aren't any loyal enough core worlds?

It's not so much that the various systems of the League have been itching for an excuse to dissolve. It seems to me that it's more that they've mostly not thought about it and just drifted along on inertia. Yeah, they know the League has problems, but none of those are affecting them all that much, and everything's going along satisfactorily enough.

But now things are getting ugly and their governments and people are having to confront a change. So suddenly they're wondering which is better:
1) digging in for a long, hard, fight to stick up for a flawed system that seems to have gone out of its way to bring this trouble down on itself (and all the members). or
2) Cutting their losses, pulling out, and making a separate peace with Manticore so they can get back to their nice boring existence with trade restored and their economy not crashing.


ONI definitely knew that there were potential fracture lines in the League. But what everyone was worried about was that the standing SLN was big enough that if they'd misjudged the tech edge that it didn't matter if the League systems were interested in a long war or not; the SLN could roll over anybody simply on the say-so of the Mandarins with basically zero impact on League members.
Up until 15-30 years ago that 'everybody' included the RMN. If Raging Thunder had come in, even with the same level of advanced warning, at the beginning of the first war the League Navy would have been dictating terms from Manticoran Orbit - despite all the same latent flaws existing within the League. Those flaws would never have been exposed to stress because their Navy was big enough that it's routine peacetime strength, was sufficient to overwhelm pretty much any opponent.

It just didn't matter that politically it might have been centuries since it had staying power, since it would win any fight in a first (or maybe second) round knockout. And that's extra scary; because it doesn't require that they sell the necessity of the war to an involved populace - it could almost happen at a whim.

But with the vast majority of the SL member systems having a small SDF, they may be frightened of going it alone. I know that in RL, the vast majority of civilians don't understand the military and what they can and can't do. I would expect the same from the SL. A member system is a part of the 8 kiloton gorilla that is the Solarian League, no matter that the gorilla has weaknesses. They will want the SLN to find a way to crush the GA. Especially, if Cpt al-Fanudahi (Storm From the Shadows) is right that the SL is caught up in R&D with the Manties and the SLN hasn't taken advantage of it yet.

n7axw wrote:Raging Thunder? I had to think about that one for a minute... It was Rolling Thunder and Raging Justice...Glad the Republic hadn't gotten together with the League!

Don

Um, wow. Not sure how I did that one. But yeah, adding that would be a bad teamup.

There is R&D available that the SLN hasn't taken advantage of, but not to the point where it would put the SLN on a competitve field with the RMN.

What is true is that there are League worlds with an overall tech base as good as Manticore's. Where Manticore is lightyears ahead due to the pressurized atmosphere of survival and war is naval R&D.

Don

cthia wrote:However, I thank Johnathan for making a very important point regarding my understanding and take on things. And that is the fact that the RMN initially underestimated their tech advantage. They had no way of knowing how outclassed the League would ultimately be when Alexander-Harrington&Co. were formulating their plan to splinter the League. Very profound point Johnathan-along with your others.

If they had been aware of their absolute tech advantage, would the plan have taken on a totally different shape?

Well maybe, maybe not.

Though even when I think we first heard about their contingency plans against the League (which was after opening the Talbott Quadrant, and after Oyster Bay) the main concern didn't seem to be that the SLN would roll over them. It rather seemed to be they'd be enough of a missile sponge that after rebuffing them the RMN might run short if they had to keep fighting a 2 front war against the SLN and Haven. (Plus of course having to divert their finite supply of hulls away from Haven right after they'd temporarily lost the ability to build more wouldn't have been great). So by that point ONI seemed to have known that in a straight-up head to head fight that the RMN should have been able to take anything the SLN was likely to be able to pull together. (And even then they underestimated the advantage by a significant amount - because the SLN's ships and doctrine lag behind what their basic military tech base could do. Haven did much better applying SL warship tech than the SLN did)

But even if they'd known exactly how badly a modern Apollo SD(P) could outclass anything the League built, I'm not sure it changes to broad strokes of the strategy all that much. The strategy was already built around the assumption that the RMN could win the tactical fights, but could never successfully occupy the League over the long term. I don't see that that's really changed just because the missiles are even more deadly than you thought.

The boots on the ground occupation and inspection is always a hard, man-power intensive, problem. So if you still need to avoid it (and I think they do) then you still need to do your best to encourage systems to make peace with you and stand aside from the fight. And to do that, you need to keep the moral high ground, and try to frame it as much as possible as a fight between an out-of-control Navy/bureaucracy against an alliance that would much rather have friendly relations with you. Taking your tactical advantages and using them for aggressive raiding doesn't fit into that narrative and risks ticking off the systems; potentially causing them to double down on supporting the League Navy.

It took Rome a long time to fall. That was split into two parts, the Western Empire which was centered around Rome and then the second stage which was the Eastern Empire around Byzantiam. Step back from the tons of detail and you find an empire racked with civil wars, unable to deal with what should have been managable external threats (the tribes around the boarders which it tried to co-opt as mercenaries) and a long list of lesser problems.

We have already seen more problems for the SL than the 20+% of members voting to not "investigate" Beowulf. We are seeing heavy duty trade and business corporations moving to try and bring back things they are loosing because of Lacoon II etc. The family of the guy who is the President of the League is getting hammered big time with the loss of Manticorian transports. It is not "just business", it is the entire system of business as far as manufactring and interstellar trade which has been crippled even if we have not seen the actual impact beyond the couple of shots related to Lacoon II, the conversation with the President and the Mandarin's discussion on the projection in loss of revenue.

Remember, we have had a lot of discussion about the impact of Lacoon II but not reallly more than broad detail of what is going to happen.

There are a lot more than Transtellars that are going to be hurting and looking for ways out of the problems they are now getting deeply into. No mater what the ultimate outcome of the Beowulf vote (and whatever the Mardarins are going to do or try to do about it) there are a lot of systems (all those who voted in support of Beowulf are the small side of the numbers) who are going to have to change policies and tactics to deal with the comming storm.

Just wait until problems like piracy and shooting disputes between Star Nations start to do more than trade diplomatic notes. The SLN is not going to be able to sit on those and attempt to deal with the GA at the same time.