The Grand Alliance Grand Attack

Relax: Very impressive post. I think we are in general agreement on most points, albeit there are a few differences I'd like to address. I do fully agree that the ISLN does not have long to live and that leaving the SDF's alone (unless they fire on GA ships) is the best policy and that in the end, this will be apolitical war as much as a military one, if Manticore/GA are to achieve their goals.

Regarding the "Home Fleets", you are right that the VSLN (that is the Vunerable Solarian League navy) are no threat, but the GA still faces the 'unknown' MAlignment and...each other--remember, we may be seeing them work together and Queen Elizabeth and Eloise making BFF sounds to each other (the worst dialogue ever by RFC, in AAC, IMHO), but they've just finished fighting a war for twenty years with literally millions of deaths and to expect all those billions of people (and the millions in military service) to suddenly begin trusting each other unconditionally is asking for a lot of development in human understanding and rationality in the next 2,000 years. Therefore, defense forces will remain for the near future.

I still think leaving Sol system alone is silly--giving the enemy a "Free Space" is just asking him to concentrate development there--but I've been-voted on that more than once. Still, here's a thought--what about the 'raid on Sol' conducted by SDF's that have split off from the SL?

I would also think that there will be some integration, that is, RMN units serving with RH taskforces, RH SD(P)'s accompanied by Grayson CLAC's, etc. That is what Honor is working at during the last chapter of CoG, IIRC (see quote below). So I don't think there will be individual task forces/fleets made up of only RH/SEM/Grayson units, as I think you allude too.

But in general, I am impressed by your data. Others, however, may question both of our sanities'.

Well, we shall see.

Oh, and the quote (italics mine):

The mere fact that Zilwicki had returned so unexpectedly and so much ahead of schedule had filled her with disquiet. She’d never been familiar with all of the details of his mission. There’d been no reason she should know, and she’d been rather preoccupied with her own duties—the ongoing process of fusing two navies which had been mortal enemies for the better part of seven T-decades into a smoothly integrated fleet undoubtedly qualified as one of the trickiest bits of cat-herding ever to come her way—when he actually departed. But she’d known its general parameters and that he shouldn’t have returned home this precipitously.

JeffEngel wrote:
The SLN would need to
(1) accept the tech disparity, which it is nearly done doing,
(2) develop or ape doctrine for using it, a practice for which it has no institutional experience,
(3) develop the FTL communications, tiny fusion plants, hollow-core podlayers, (probably) modern LAC's, Grayson-derived inertial compensators or their equivalent, specialized EW missiles, and FTL telemetry - and I'm sure I'm still missing something,
(4) design the ships to use all of that, or figure out how to do much of it with mere refits of existing ships,
(5) find, recruit, and train the crews for new builds and the Reserve Fleet (if it's something they could use or refit usefully, a very optimistic assumption)
(6) build/refit the ships - and note the SD(P)'s run around two years' build time (maybe, maybe they could go with smaller, more vulnerable pod-layers if they have MDM's from pods and support them with refitted wallers and hypothetical screen units with awesome point defense and shave a few months off that, for a clunky, vulnerable arrangement)
and (7) go win.

6 months will not do it. 12 months will not do it. 36 months and a few miracles would do it. The SLN does not have 36 months and I don't think it's got miracles coming. The Solarian League isn't going to be conquered in 36 months, but it's not going to remain a League for 36 months.

It's never been a star nation - it's a treaty organization that's been able to pretend it's a star nation for sheer size against the outside and for resting so very lightly on its members on the inside. The GA isn't honoring that bluff anymore, and in response, it's not going to be able to remain light on its members - who have started leaving the party. (Heck, the MA systems left it long ago and simply haven't let anyone know.) The SL is facing a fight in which its advantages no longer mean a thing and its disadvantages will tear it apart.

Very nice post, JeffEngle; I find myself in full agreement with your points above.

If I may add one more point; the Bureaucratic inertia that will exist after nearly a millenium of peace. I work for the US Government/DoD at a time where our military is engaged or has to be ready to engage, and the paperwork/approvals/contracting process is a nightmare. The only reason we stay ahead is that our opponents are even more messed up (either due to corruption or even denser bureaucracy than ours).

Now imagine a system with 1,000 years of 'doing the same-old same-old' and enough regulations to fill a building with data chips, and personnel sitting at desks they have occupied for 60-80 years (thanks to prolong), not even mentioning the corruption at all levels, and then try to get that machine operating at a 'wartime' pace.

Ain't going to happen.

IMHO as always. YMMV.

Hutch wrote:

JeffEngel wrote:
The SLN would need to
(1) accept the tech disparity, which it is nearly done doing,
(2) develop or ape doctrine for using it, a practice for which it has no institutional experience,
(3) develop the FTL communications, tiny fusion plants, hollow-core podlayers, (probably) modern LAC's, Grayson-derived inertial compensators or their equivalent, specialized EW missiles, and FTL telemetry - and I'm sure I'm still missing something,
(4) design the ships to use all of that, or figure out how to do much of it with mere refits of existing ships,
(5) find, recruit, and train the crews for new builds and the Reserve Fleet (if it's something they could use or refit usefully, a very optimistic assumption)
(6) build/refit the ships - and note the SD(P)'s run around two years' build time (maybe, maybe they could go with smaller, more vulnerable pod-layers if they have MDM's from pods and support them with refitted wallers and hypothetical screen units with awesome point defense and shave a few months off that, for a clunky, vulnerable arrangement)
and (7) go win.

6 months will not do it. 12 months will not do it. 36 months and a few miracles would do it. The SLN does not have 36 months and I don't think it's got miracles coming. The Solarian League isn't going to be conquered in 36 months, but it's not going to remain a League for 36 months.

It's never been a star nation - it's a treaty organization that's been able to pretend it's a star nation for sheer size against the outside and for resting so very lightly on its members on the inside. The GA isn't honoring that bluff anymore, and in response, it's not going to be able to remain light on its members - who have started leaving the party. (Heck, the MA systems left it long ago and simply haven't let anyone know.) The SL is facing a fight in which its advantages no longer mean a thing and its disadvantages will tear it apart.

Very nice post, JeffEngle; I find myself in full agreement with your points above.

If I may add one more point; the Bureaucratic inertia that will exist after nearly a millenium of peace. I work for the US Government/DoD at a time where our military is engaged or has to be ready to engage, and the paperwork/approvals/contracting process is a nightmare. The only reason we stay ahead is that our opponents are even more messed up (either due to corruption or even denser bureaucracy than ours).

Now imagine a system with 1,000 years of 'doing the same-old same-old' and enough regulations to fill a building with data chips, and personnel sitting at desks they have occupied for 60-80 years (thanks to prolong), not even mentioning the corruption at all levels, and then try to get that machine operating at a 'wartime' pace.

Ain't going to happen.

IMHO as always. YMMV.

JeffEngle, the SL is a star nation. All nations (and futuristic star nations) aren't really anymore stronger or bound together, potentially. Just like Haven or the new SEM aren't necessarily any stronger. They just have more effective governments atm. If the SL had a more effective constitution and government, would they be less of a star nation? Silesia was a star nation and it was even less effective and efficient than the SL is (it had rampant piracy and civil wars for how long before the SKM and Andermani forcibly annexed it?). Tpo say the SL isn't a nation is doing it a disservice.

Hutch, I'd say on the military side that is very doable. The SLN has/is receiving a very nasty surprise and its more competent commanders and enlisted are being faced with a situation that they -know- they have to improve and the old way of doing things isn't going to work. With the new CNO, who knows the SL/SLN is screwed if they don't do anything, there is a very strong top down push to redo things just to survive. On the civilian side, you're right though, but even there, there is a growing incentive to streamline and improve themselves somewhat.

Zakharra wrote: Hutch, I'd say on the military side that is very doable. The SLN has/is receiving a very nasty surprise and its more competent commanders and enlisted are being faced with a situation that they -know- they have to improve and the old way of doing things isn't going to work. With the new CNO, who knows the SL/SLN is screwed if they don't do anything, there is a very strong top down push to redo things just to survive. On the civilian side, you're right though, but even there, there is a growing incentive to streamline and improve themselves somewhat.

Oh, I do not argue that the Military side (at least the competent ones) are waking up and will try to shake things up. Might even be several Base Commanders/Shipyard Commanders will take some rather drastic action to improve things.

But never ever underestimate the power of bureaucratic inertia. It is the true "Force" that binds the Universe together..in Red Tape, of course....

Hutch wrote:

Zakharra wrote: Hutch, I'd say on the military side that is very doable. The SLN has/is receiving a very nasty surprise and its more competent commanders and enlisted are being faced with a situation that they -know- they have to improve and the old way of doing things isn't going to work. With the new CNO, who knows the SL/SLN is screwed if they don't do anything, there is a very strong top down push to redo things just to survive. On the civilian side, you're right though, but even there, there is a growing incentive to streamline and improve themselves somewhat.

Oh, I do not argue that the Military side (at least the competent ones) are waking up and will try to shake things up. Might even be several Base Commanders/Shipyard Commanders will take some rather drastic action to improve things.

But never ever underestimate the power of bureaucratic inertia. It is the true "Force" that binds the Universe together..in Red Tape, of course....

Heh. Very true, but we do have evidence that there are some competent civilians leaders. The Maya sector OFS governor and his military attache for example. There could very well be others on the other side of the SL, but RFC hasn't focused on that. He's just focused on the area near Manticore (and its annexed territories) and Haven and the areas to the north/northwest of the SL. It wouldn't surprise me if there were more competent officials, or ones that replace the incompetent ones , whether by forcing them out of office or by killing them.

I do like the point you make at the top of this page: remember, we may be seeing them work together and Queen Elizabeth and Eloise making BFF sounds to each other (the worst dialogue ever by RFC, in AAC, IMHO), but they've just finished fighting a war for twenty years with literally millions of deaths and to expect all those billions of people (and the millions in military service) to suddenly begin trusting each other unconditionally is asking for a lot of development in human understanding and rationality in the next 2,000 years. Therefore, defense forces will remain for the near future.

People seriously keep ignoring this. There is nothing that says that the SEM and RH won't be adversaries again. Especially since the RH is a democracy with a fully elected government. Even with treecats the SEM will never be able to tell who is elected and who isn't and they would do well to keep their hands out from meddling with the RH political system. The SKM/SEM and RH have been in a shooting war for 20 years, a cold war for over 50; as you point out, there should still be a lot of hard feelings on both sides, in the civilian and military structures. Yet they are sharing their cutting edge military tech with their greatest enemy. An enemy-now-friend that could very well be an enemy again.

Yet the SEM -won't- treat with the SL? Somehow the SL, which has done far less to Manticore than the RH has ever done, is so fiendish and evil that it literally has to be broken up. Kind of strange..

Zakharra wrote:
Heh. Very true, but we do have evidence that there are some competent civilians leaders. The Maya sector OFS governor and his military attache for example. There could very well be others on the other side of the SL, but RFC hasn't focused on that. He's just focused on the area near Manticore (and its annexed territories) and Haven and the areas to the north/northwest of the SL. It wouldn't surprise me if there were more competent officials, or ones that replace the incompetent ones , whether by forcing them out of office or by killing them.

I do like the point you make at the top of this page: remember, we may be seeing them work together and Queen Elizabeth and Eloise making BFF sounds to each other (the worst dialogue ever by RFC, in AAC, IMHO), but they've just finished fighting a war for twenty years with literally millions of deaths and to expect all those billions of people (and the millions in military service) to suddenly begin trusting each other unconditionally is asking for a lot of development in human understanding and rationality in the next 2,000 years. Therefore, defense forces will remain for the near future.

People seriously keep ignoring this. There is nothing that says that the SEM and RH won't be adversaries again. Especially since the RH is a democracy with a fully elected government. Even with treecats the SEM will never be able to tell who is elected and who isn't and they would do well to keep their hands out from meddling with the RH political system. The SKM/SEM and RH have been in a shooting war for 20 years, a cold war for over 50; as you point out, there should still be a lot of hard feelings on both sides, in the civilian and military structures. Yet they are sharing their cutting edge military tech with their greatest enemy. An enemy-now-friend that could very well be an enemy again.

Yet the SEM -won't- treat with the SL? Somehow the SL, which has done far less to Manticore than the RH has ever done, is so fiendish and evil that it literally has to be broken up. Kind of strange..

Correction: Manticore has been in a shooting war for twenty years and a cold war for fifty with the People's Republic of Haven. Not the Republic of Haven. This distinction is critical. The Manticoran war with the Republic was a war no one wanted and a carryover from the People's Republic. Remember, both sides wanted to stop it well before the Second War began; it was meddling by Giancola and Mesa, plus the utter disaster that was the High Ridge government, that kickstarted the resumption of hostilities. Manticore most certainly isn't sharing technological secrets with its longtime enemy, because that enemy doesn't exist anymore.

I'm not saying there won't be mistrust and suspicion on both sides; frankly, I'd be disappointed if there weren't. It's bound to happen, after the toll the war has taken on both star nations. But it's highly unlikely that Haven and Manticore will turn on each other again, for the simple reason that they only turned on each other in the first place because of Mesa and the Alignment. There are far more advantages to an alliance than there are to a shooting war, and that goes for both nations; cold-blooded cost-benefit analysis alone means that they're almost certainly going to stay allies, even if they weren't already developing a warmer relationship. The "interstellar Athens" that Haven once was - and, I believe, will be again - is a natural ally for Manticore, being a strong, stable democracy who detests the slave trade. They are good for each other in every way - economically, militarily, and diplomatically. They have no reason to turn on each other, and every reason in the world to hang together.

And one more correction: Manticore isn't setting out to break up the Solarian League because it's evil and must be destroyed. The Solarian League is already falling apart. They're accelerating a process that is going to happen anyway, and they're doing it because the Alignment is using the SLN against them and they want to make sure the MAlign can't do that any more.

Granted, I'm well known on these boards as a Havenite partisan, so you're welcome to take my analysis with a grain of salt, but I believe in Haven, I believe in Eloise Pritchart, and I believe in the Grand Alliance.

And I believe that the future of the Honorverse will bear me out.

Zakharra wrote: Yet the SEM -won't- treat with the SL? Somehow the SL, which has done far less to Manticore than the RH has ever done, is so fiendish and evil that it literally has to be broken up. Kind of strange..

Who said that Manticore won't treat with the Solarian League? They've been trying to treat with the Solarian League for close on to a year now. The League's response so far has been to shoot at Manticoran ships, seize Manticoran citizens, ignore legitimate protests, engineer the suppression of Solarian voices who spoke in favor of negotiation, and send yet more ships at Manticoran territories.

The Queen and her advisors, including Harrington, guessed early on that none of their diplomatic efforts would work, and that they would be forced to respond with force. They have held a firm line, and refused to let the League push them around. They planned on what they would have to do if it came to war. But Manticore has most definitely been trying to reach diplomatic settlement with the League. They activated Lacoon I, and later Lacoon II, only after repeated failures to get any useful response from the League.

roseandheather wrote:Correction: Manticore has been in a shooting war for twenty years and a cold war for fifty with the People's Republic of Haven. Not the Republic of Haven. This distinction is critical. The Manticoran war with the Republic was a war no one wanted and a carryover from the People's Republic. Remember, both sides wanted to stop it well before the Second War began; it was meddling by Giancola and Mesa, plus the utter disaster that was the High Ridge government, that kickstarted the resumption of hostilities. Manticore most certainly isn't sharing technological secrets with its longtime enemy, because that enemy doesn't exist anymore.

I'm not saying there won't be mistrust and suspicion on both sides; frankly, I'd be disappointed if there weren't. It's bound to happen, after the toll the war has taken on both star nations. But it's highly unlikely that Haven and Manticore will turn on each other again, for the simple reason that they only turned on each other in the first place because of Mesa and the Alignment. There are far more advantages to an alliance than there are to a shooting war, and that goes for both nations; cold-blooded cost-benefit analysis alone means that they're almost certainly going to stay allies, even if they weren't already developing a warmer relationship. The "interstellar Athens" that Haven once was - and, I believe, will be again - is a natural ally for Manticore, being a strong, stable democracy who detests the slave trade. They are good for each other in every way - economically, militarily, and diplomatically. They have no reason to turn on each other, and every reason in the world to hang together.

And one more correction: Manticore isn't setting out to break up the Solarian League because it's evil and must be destroyed. The Solarian League is already falling apart. They're accelerating a process that is going to happen anyway, and they're doing it because the Alignment is using the SLN against them and they want to make sure the MAlign can't do that any more.

Granted, I'm well known on these boards as a Havenite partisan, so you're welcome to take my analysis with a grain of salt, but I believe in Haven, I believe in Eloise Pritchart, and I believe in the Grand Alliance.

And I believe that the future of the Honorverse will bear me out.

Strong opinions indeed. Also a very cogent analysis of the situation. Historically there are precedents for what you are saying. True democracies rarely initiate a war. As an example, in the 75 year period from 1870-1945 there were three major wars between France and Germany. In the 70 years since there have been none. The major difference is that subsequent to 1945, the Allies imposed a democratic government on Germany, and stayed long enough to ensure that it got well established. Granted, the inclusion of Germany in the economic system of Europe helped immensely, as the Germans have very little incentive now to attempt to expand using military means.

Another example - in the 1840's there was an ongoing dispute between the UK and the US over the northern boundary of the US/southern boundary of Canada west of the Misissippi - one popular campaign slogan in the US was "54-40 or Fight", which would put the northern US border well up into what is not British Columbia. The UK was looking to hang onto most of what is now Oregon and Washington. Instead of going to war, a comprise was reached which set the border whee it is today.

There are many other examples, but a general rule of thumb is the autocracies tend to regard military action to defend their honor as a first course of action, democracies tend to talk first.

Tying Manticore and Haven together via trade and alliance will help to alleviate some of those hard feelings, and build the reservoir of trust that may well be required in the future. Certainly if you can make it more costly to go to war then to talk about your problems (not just for the governments, but for the merchants and citizens), then in a democracy talk will tend to get done first.

SWM wrote:

Zakharra wrote: Yet the SEM -won't- treat with the SL? Somehow the SL, which has done far less to Manticore than the RH has ever done, is so fiendish and evil that it literally has to be broken up. Kind of strange..

Who said that Manticore won't treat with the Solarian League? They've been trying to treat with the Solarian League for close on to a year now. The League's response so far has been to shoot at Manticoran ships, seize Manticoran citizens, ignore legitimate protests, engineer the suppression of Solarian voices who spoke in favor of negotiation, and send yet more ships at Manticoran territories.

The Queen and her advisors, including Harrington, guessed early on that none of their diplomatic efforts would work, and that they would be forced to respond with force. They have held a firm line, and refused to let the League push them around. They planned on what they would have to do if it came to war. But Manticore has most definitely been trying to reach diplomatic settlement with the League. They activated Lacoon I, and later Lacoon II, only after repeated failures to get any useful response from the League.

From what I've heard and been quoted about what is now called the Harrington Doctrine on these forums, the SEM is done trying to negotiate. it's goal now, is, as lined out in the plan Honor Harrington laid out is the break up of the SL, by force, until it is small enough that no one part of it can threaten the SEM ever again. That was emphasized quite strongly in the quotes. From what it sounded like, they were no longer interested in working with the SL, but are committed to its destruction, albeit on and for a different reason than the MAlign is. Another implication was that even if the SL sued for peace and accepted fault for what's happened, the SEM would not accept for any reason. Even if the leadership of the SL changed, it would still not be accepted because the SL is so large that if it did become a threat again, it would crush the SEM because now it has been awakened to the fact its military is pathetic and weak. The SL's destruction by the SEM is going to happen because of the threat they pose now (current leadership) and because of potential threats it might pose later if left intact (ignoring that the RH could be an enemy again).

The implication is also that the SEM/RMN will not allow -any- part of the SL to remain intact if the SEM thinks it might be a danger to the SEM. ie if some of the SL manages to survive the initial collapse intact or reforms into a state the SEM feels uncomfortable with, the SEM will rip it apart by any means, militarily, economic, politically until the SEM is satisfied with the result. The SEM is setting up itself as the overseer of what size and kind of nations that emerge from the current growing chaos. Not the people/systems in the SL, but Manticore is going to be the decider here.

Zakharra wrote: JeffEngle, the SL is a star nation. All nations (and futuristic star nations) aren't really anymore stronger or bound together, potentially. Just like Haven or the new SEM aren't necessarily any stronger. They just have more effective governments atm. If the SL had a more effective constitution and government, would they be less of a star nation? Silesia was a star nation and it was even less effective and efficient than the SL is (it had rampant piracy and civil wars for how long before the SKM and Andermani forcibly annexed it?). Tpo say the SL isn't a nation is doing it a disservice.

I think "failed state" would be the term to use for the Silesian Confederacy - it's not clear from my recollection of text that they'd aimed at a serious central government and a unified national policy and failed, or if they (like the SL) just wanted to tie essentially sovereign nations together by a treaty arrangement with some related service organizations. Either way, it certainly didn't work out and the Sillies didn't retain an ability to control their own space with national or even (in most cases) system authorities, or to become a locus for effective patriotism.

The Solarian League never had an effective elected, constitutional government. The every-planet-has-a-veto stipulation assured that, or close to it. Maybe a political culture could have developed in which no one would use that veto but the threat of it would make for routine, effective compromises, but that's not how they went. They went with an elected body with the legislative authority that provided a cabinet government - that was forever toothless and ineffective. The "real" government is just the bureaucracy, being allowed to kinda govern through regulation on dubious authority but plenty of tradition. People have put up with it just because the system governments haven't minded; they haven't minded because the SL barely touches them.

If you want to call that a star nation, you're welcome to. But if it's going to be a term that implies being effectively able to exercise sovereign authority - and I submit that's an assumption people will make if you do use it - then it's going to be misleading in the case of the League. I'll grant you this represents some controversial political science. If you really want to stick to some thinner notion of 'star nation' under which the poor SL counts, you're welcome to it. I doubt fussing back and forth about those definitions would be edifying. I'd hope we could agree that the SL is at least a fragile mess.

Hutch, I'd say on the military side that is very doable. The SLN has/is receiving a very nasty surprise and its more competent commanders and enlisted are being faced with a situation that they -know- they have to improve and the old way of doing things isn't going to work. With the new CNO, who knows the SL/SLN is screwed if they don't do anything, there is a very strong top down push to redo things just to survive. On the civilian side, you're right though, but even there, there is a growing incentive to streamline and improve themselves somewhat.

They've certainly got the wake-up call by now, on the military and civilian sides. On the other hand... so have Beowulf, the Renaissance Factor, and Maya. The emperor has no clothes. A really energized military and bureaucracy could do wonders - if they had enough time, if they didn't have so very much work to do, and if they were willing to recognize the constitutional crisis or deal reasonably with Manticore.

They're not. The government by bureaucracy and tradition isn't up for direct taxes or an undeclared war on this scale; they cannot bear to lose the face honest diplomacy would require; they cannot bear to try to make the actual elected government try to work; and the actual elected government isn't up to asserting authority over the bureaucrats. Every option that isn't stumbling toward armageddon is unacceptable, even unthinkable, to anyone who would have the place and power to take it.