Dohlar and Destabilization

Something I've been thinking about for a while - and comments on another thread indicate it may be time to talk about it. What is going to happen to Dohlar?

The scenario I foresee is that Ahlverez manages to get the majority of the forces he has left out of Siddarmark, and marches west, where he finds he is now in disgrace for cowardice, desertion (of the Desnairian Army) and, supposedly, incompetence. All this, of course brought on by Kyr, Hennet and Hankey, from their own, obvious, if slightly different, motives. Hennet to cover his own ass for "getting lost." Kyr for revenge, and a bit to cover his posterior as well. Hankey, because he's just as short sighted as Harless was.

The bickering is also short sighted, because Clyntahn starts to distrust everyone in authority in Dohlar, except his own inquisitors, who likely will accept the accusations of the incompetent three as gospel.

Clyntahn, now experiencing two of his greatest losses at the hands of Dohlaran commanders, both in disgrace, decides to do something about it, and effectively has his inquisitors take over in Dohlar. The fear, administrative disruption, and shortages caused by this, as well as what I believe are soon-to-come reverses in the Gulf of Dohlar and in Silkiah and the North Watch causing severe economic and supply disruption, turn Dohlar into what the Balkans were turned into during WWII and its immediate aftermath.

I think Clyntahn will create his very own powderkeg, which likely will explode, not in his face, but in the face of the Inquisition.

Speculation can be such fun...!

[quote="XofDallas"]
I think Clyntahn will create his very own powderkeg, which likely will explode, not in his face, but in the face of the Inquisition.

Well put.
In addition, I think others in the "Gang" will see that Clytahn's actions will create that powder keg, and be unable to stop him. How fun!!

I think Ahlverez will be safe. He was not in overall command. His advice was repeatedly ignored. He was by far the strongest commander in the joint Desniarian/Dohlaran army. And he was able to preserve at least part of that force from utter destruction (at least as of the end of LAMA). Finally, the man who really was in command and who really is responsible is dead and unable to defend himself. I think that the recently deceased Duke Harless is going to be scapegoated.

Yes, and his Inquisitor approved of his retreat.

Henry Brown wrote:I think Ahlverez will be safe. He was not in overall command. His advice was repeatedly ignored. He was by far the strongest commander in the joint Desniarian/Dohlaran army. And he was able to preserve at least part of that force from utter destruction (at least as of the end of LAMA). Finally, the man who really was in command and who really is responsible is dead and unable to defend himself. I think that the recently deceased Duke Harless is going to be scapegoated.

Henry Brown wrote:I think Ahlverez will be safe. He was not in overall command. His advice was repeatedly ignored. He was by far the strongest commander in the joint Desniarian/Dohlaran army. And he was able to preserve at least part of that force from utter destruction (at least as of the end of LAMA). Finally, the man who really was in command and who really is responsible is dead and unable to defend himself. I think that the recently deceased Duke Harless is going to be scapegoated.

All that is true- WE know it.
But all his enemies are going to get the word out FIRST. Easy to spin- it was Ahlverez's spy that had us fooled. Ahlverez's infantry failed to break thru the Charisians- Alverez ran with his whole command. Ahlverez was always contrary and disruptive. By the time he gets back he will be soooo smeared and slimmed, he'll be weeks- months- getting the truth out.

tootall wrote:

Henry Brown wrote:I think Ahlverez will be safe. He was not in overall command. His advice was repeatedly ignored. He was by far the strongest commander in the joint Desniarian/Dohlaran army. And he was able to preserve at least part of that force from utter destruction (at least as of the end of LAMA). Finally, the man who really was in command and who really is responsible is dead and unable to defend himself. I think that the recently deceased Duke Harless is going to be scapegoated.

All that is true- WE know it.
But all his enemies are going to get the word out FIRST. Easy to spin- it was Ahlverez's spy that had us fooled. Ahlverez's infantry failed to break thru the Charisians- Alverez ran with his whole command. Ahlverez was always contrary and disruptive. By the time he gets back he will be soooo smeared and slimmed, he'll be weeks- months- getting the truth out.

This seems spot on to me, especially since Ahlverez is a fairly minor nobleman, while Harless is at the top of the heap. In terms of the Dohlaran politics-by-slander we've seen in the past (think Thirsk vs. Thorast), Ahlverez is badly outgunned.

Additionally, we don't know that Ahlverez will get back to Dohlar at all - he is stranded hundreds of miles away from any hope of resupply and badly outnumbered by the local ICA and RSA forces, after all. He could very well be killed or captured, in which case he's definitely getting blamed - remember that Thirsk is only able to avoid taking the blame for the Armageddon Reef campaign because he's been winning. Once Ahlverez loses, no one is going to defend him.

Dunno... Ahlverez is in a bit better position than Thirsk was. Harless, Hennett, Hankey, etc. are all Desnairians whom the Dohlarians don't like anyhow plus he has some of the same family connections as Malikai and Thorst. His inquisitor signed off on his retreat. More than three fourths of his force was lost so no one can accuse Ahlvarez of lacking fighting spirit. So... he could come out ok.

Don

n7axw wrote:Dunno... Ahlverez is in a bit better position than Thirsk was. Harless, Hennett, Hankey, etc. are all Desnairians whom the Dohlarians don't like anyhow plus he has some of the same family connections as Malikai and Thorst. His inquisitor signed off on his retreat. More than three fourths of his force was lost so no one can accuse Ahlvarez of lacking fighting spirit. So... he could come out ok.

Don

Clyntahn will need someone to send to the question. Doesn't much matter if its his best commander.

Personally, I think Ahlvarez is toast no matter what happens; as has been noted, he's the only one to get some of his troops out of a very bad situation,and he did it with his Inquisitor's approval- not that that will mean very bloody much to His Grand Festering Pustulence when it comes to finding a scapegoat for that whole debacle- and as much as he might like to, surrendering to the EoC is just not in the cards. Not that he would, mind you; he's very much the CoGA's man and probably realizes that his best option is to catch a bullet rather than submitting to the full Punishment- which is very likely what his fate will be if he gets back.Add to that the fact that his enemies (at least on the battlefield, not to mention the throne room) have very little sympathy for him. He's in a bad spot no matter what he does, and he knows it.

Thirsk is another matter. Agreed, he won't budge while his family is basically under house arrest, but IMO the bottom line is he's a good man doing his very best in a bad situation, and while Thorast has it in for him in a big way the Army's getting their gluteus handed to them will make him back off a bit for a while, at any rate. However, he does have some sympathy building among the Inner Circle; they know he really didn't have a choice about handing over the prisoners, and they know how he feels about being forsworn in the matter. Add to that is the fact that while he's dangerous to a point- look at the idea of the screw galley; not his idea, but he recognized a good idea when it was brought to him. He is, in my analysis, a fairly flexible individual and as time goes by and he sees more and more the hypocrisy of the CoGA, he'll find his trend toward Charis expanding.Get his family to safety and I think he'll seriously consider the idea that just maybe God isn't on his nation's or the CoGA's side and it would be a good time to decamp.

And yes, I really would like to see His Corpulence's reaction to that- catastrophic apoplexy, anyone?

More to the point, however, Dohlar is about done. Even with his navy's success, there just isn't enough manpower or money available even with the CoGA's backing- and that is starting to feel the strain as well.Desnair is about in the same situation, so it wont take too much to put the both of them down for the count.

BarryKirk wrote:

n7axw wrote:Dunno... Ahlverez is in a bit better position than Thirsk was. Harless, Hennett, Hankey, etc. are all Desnairians whom the Dohlarians don't like anyhow plus he has some of the same family connections as Malikai and Thorst. His inquisitor signed off on his retreat. More than three fourths of his force was lost so no one can accuse Ahlvarez of lacking fighting spirit. So... he could come out ok.

Don

Clyntahn will need someone to send to the question. Doesn't much matter if its his best commander.

Maybe. But I think Ahlvarez has better cover than Thirsk. Besides, the inquisition isn't going to have a lot of time before the EOC arrives. Besides, how are his troops going to react if Ahlvarez is scapegoated when they know no one else could have gotten them out of the jam they found themselves in? Armies can make their displeasure known more directly than navies can. Clynthan may well find himself bumping up against his limitations...

Don