Dohlar and Destabilization

Zakharra wrote:

XofDallas wrote:Something else to consider with respect to the Harchongese Army is how it possibly can be effective. No one alive on Safehold (and certainly no one in Harchong) has ever dealt with an army this large, and they don't have the Corps structure (Corps being self-sufficient army units with their own support cadres) that Weber mentioned somewhere in LAMA. How will they be fed on the march, for example? How fast can it actually move?

Quantity has a quality all its own - but only if you can get it in somewhere near the right place and pointed somewhat in the right direction at something near the right time.

I think there's a good chance the Harchong armies will start to live off the land. The nobles will have absolutely no problem with their men pillaging the locals and adding in some other war crimes in the looting too. That might lead to some of the nobles running the HE armies to decide to take over the local area (cities) as their own private fiefdom (or as an expansion of the Harchong Empire), and to try and get the support of the Church Inquisitors with them. It's likely to not work, but I can see the Harchong nobles being arrogant enough to try it in some places. And some sufficiently bribed Inquisitors allowing it if it looks like the local rulers seem insufficiently motivated to support the Army of God.

There is a serious limit to how well an army of that size can live off the land. They would need a substantial fraction of their men just gathering supplies every single day, and if they stayed in any one place more than a couple days, they'd strip every bit of food within reach.

They might try living off the land, but I concurr with previous poster as to how well that would work out.

As for "private fiefdoms? Nah... They aren't going to be around as a coherrent force long enough for that to work out.

Don

Zakharra wrote:I think there's a good chance the Harchong armies will start to live off the land. The nobles will have absolutely no problem with their men pillaging the locals and adding in some other war crimes in the looting too. That might lead to some of the nobles running the HE armies to decide to take over the local area (cities) as their own private fiefdom (or as an expansion of the Harchong Empire), and to try and get the support of the Church Inquisitors with them. It's likely to not work, but I can see the Harchong nobles being arrogant enough to try it in some places. And some sufficiently bribed Inquisitors allowing it if it looks like the local rulers seem insufficiently motivated to support the Army of God.

I'm not at all sure this will happen - but it definitely could. And if it does...

First, It's not something that could be sustained for very long at all. Even assuming the HA is free to do this, I doubt it will be able to move fast enough to get to new territories to strip bare.

Second, the gloves really will come off with respect to the HA, the CoGA and, specifically, the Order of Schueler. It will be CoGA-controlled lands the HA will be marching through, and the aristocracy of those lands definitely will not be amused. By this time they'll have been tithed to ruin, their people will have been conscripted, and now they'll be feeding an army to the point their own citizens face starvation. The aristocracy in the border states may be forced to turn a blind eye to it, but they won't forget it.

Third, if this happens, CoGA also will face the very real possibility the citizenry in the affected border states will react in exactly the same way the affected citizenry of Siddarmark reacted. Not saying it won't happen, because it definitely could. But the consequences for the Church might give rise to one of those "inescapable truths" Clyntahn ignores, to his eventual, not-insignificant, detriment.

PeterZ wrote:As it stands now, Rychtyr fell back to Evrytyn. He'd be an idiot to let anyone bypass him along Sheryl-Seridahn Canal. He has to fall back. The question then becomes, will he leave the locks intact? I would think that he and his Intendants would destroy the locks as they fell back.

Will they do it?

If Rychtyr destroys the locks on the Sheryl-Seridahn Canal that may actually play to Alliance's advantage. It destroys the main path for armies into or OUT OF Dohlar. That could make it safer to bypass Dohlar and go for Dairnyth.

jms

I wonder if they might send the harcbhong army to bolster the dohlar forces, with the canals into the republic broken, they are stuck doing nothing. a few hundred thousand could be sent to keep the borders.

Hi PeterZ,

There's always got to be a first time.

While I expect DE or whoever advances will bypass Evrytyn as Thirsk confirms, targeting the lock sets behind him would compel him to attempt to protect them with obviously even smaller forces until his reserve supply is adequate when he has to abandon them and retreat.

The odds of that happening may depend on how smart his intendant is; young but wise like Wyrshym's or a stupid zealot like Kaitswyrth's?

I suspect he is of the wise type, Rychtyr having some luck and influence or being taught by experience the way Father Sulyvyn Fyrmyn was, Rychtyr personally helping the education process along.

Who knows perhaps he will have some of his most zealous intendants posted to blow up the locks so the scout snipers bet a bonus when they slip in and take them.

Then there's the question of how long it will take the ICA engineers to repair the locks temporarily as Duchairn is; I suspect they will do it better and faster, in part because those nefarious Charisian spies stole the plans years before the schism!

L

PeterZ wrote:As it stands now, Rychtyr fell back to Evrytyn. He'd be an idiot to let anyone bypass him along Sheryl-Seridahn Canal. He has to fall back. The question then becomes, will he leave the locks intact? I would think that he and his Intendants would destroy the locks as they fell back.

Will they do it?

Hi Zakharra,

That's going to be a bit difficult especially as they advance into the republic.

One reason for advancing via the canals is that the supplies required can be assembled and sent far more easily, than getting all the dragons and wagons.

We have RFC's figure that a foraging army can only travel about 20 miles a day in order for the foragers to get back with the food and fodder, ie halving the rate of march, at a time, enabling the alliance to react even faster.

While RFC may have some tricks to enable some armies [like Ahlverez's] to move and forage faster [he may already have half the food he needs etc], that 20 miles per day has a lot of historical experience backing it up.

Keep in mind most European armies were vastly smaller than the MHoGatA, and even the reputed huge Asian armies like the Persians, Mongols, Indian, Mogul or Chinese etc were probably much smaller than their enemies claimed on simple logistic grounds.

If the MHoGatA is only 1.6 million men strong, that's 2400 tons per day of food which a barge or two can handle, but requires 89-119 dragons [and wagons at 27-20.25 tons @] each way; while fodder for 400,000 horses requires 6000 tons per day or at least 3 barges every day.

For an army that size marching overland without arranging the food and fodder well ahead of time could be an excellent way to starve the army.

On the march, across 5 miles on each side, a 20 miles per day advance means they pass some 128,000 acres per day and must average 37.5 pounds of food per acre per day, while the required fodder is 93.75 pounds per acre per day, keeping in mind food and fodder are not raised on the same acre.

Given the experience of the AoS starving while marching through an area that was capable of at least two crops a year, if not more, ought to make the IHA and Go4 planners recognise there will be very little food or fodder available for foraging in northern Siddarmark this spring, so movement by canal will be required.

I expect one IHA sub-army (at least a quarter but possibly a third) to be sent directly across Jhurlahnk from the Langhorne Bedard river junction to the Charayn Canal to replace Kaitswyrth's after Symkyn destroys it soon.

One sub-army will head up the Langhorne to replace Wyrshym's which I've previously dubbed army group north, while another heads down the Sabana River to Dairnyth etc to replace Harless's AoS that I've designated army group south, the middle one obviously being army group center.

It may be that between them Duchairn and Magwair can recognise the advantages of an 'army group' or corps organization [without seeing what the ICA has done] in handling such large forces.

Safehold's history of sieges, mentioned in the textev by Ahlverez, proves the besieging army will eat out what ever is within 5day's of the siege.

Keep in mind the other half [~250,000 troops] of the AoG is policing the conquered territory and would take a very dim view of someone else claiming power and control over what they fought for.

Unless the inquisitors were all Harchong aristocrats, because the bureaucrats would also take a dim view of aristocrats getting away from their control, which from the textev about keeping the priests and inquisitors moving to keep any such close relationships from happening is very unlikely, I don't think even Clyntahn is going to let stand, especially if they don't have his permission in the first place.

L


[quote="Zakharra"][quote="XofDallas"]Something else to consider with respect to the Harchongese Army is how it possibly can be effective. No one alive on Safehold (and certainly no one in Harchong) has ever dealt with an army this large, and they don't have the Corps structure (Corps being self-sufficient army units with their own support cadres) that Weber mentioned somewhere in LAMA. How will they be fed on the march, for example? How fast can it actually move?

Quantity has a quality all its own - but only if you can get it in somewhere near the right place and pointed somewhat in the right direction at something near the right time.[/quote]


I think there's a good chance the Harchong armies will start to live off the land. The nobles will have absolutely no problem with their men pillaging the locals and adding in some other war crimes in the looting too. That might lead to some of the nobles running the HE armies to decide to take over the local area (cities) as their own private fiefdom (or as an expansion of the Harchong Empire), and to try and get the support of the Church Inquisitors with them. It's likely to not work, but I can see the Harchong nobles being arrogant enough to try it in some places. And some sufficiently bribed Inquisitors allowing it if it looks like the local rulers seem insufficiently motivated to support the Army of God.[/quote]

SYED wrote:I wonder if they might send the harcbhong army to bolster the dohlar forces, with the canals into the republic broken, they are stuck doing nothing. a few hundred thousand could be sent to keep the borders.

I don't know if they would do that, Syed. If they did it probably wouldn't work very well. Eastshare, et. al. seem to be pretty hard on the heels of the retreating Dohlarians and it is doubtful that the Harchongese could get there in time to matter.

The other thing that should worry the Harchongese about such an idea is how much more mobile and better armed the EOC/Siddarmarkan forces are. They would probably get themselves chewed up and defeated in detail.

Don

lyonheart wrote:. . . .

If the MHoGatA is only 1.6 million men strong, that's 2400 tons per day of food which a barge or two can handle, but requires 89-119 dragons [and wagons at 27-20.25 tons @] each way; while fodder for 400,000 horses requires 6000 tons per day or at least 3 barges every day.

For an army that size marching overland without arranging the food and fodder well ahead of time could be an excellent way to starve the army.

On the march, across 5 miles on each side, a 20 miles per day advance means they pass some 128,000 acres per day and must average 37.5 pounds of food per acre per day, while the required fodder is 93.75 pounds per acre per day, keeping in mind food and fodder are not raised on the same acre.

Given the experience of the AoS starving while marching through an area that was capable of at least two crops a year, if not more, ought to make the IHA and Go4 planners recognise there will be very little food or fodder available for foraging in northern Siddarmark this spring, so movement by canal will be required.

I expect one IHA sub-army (at least a quarter but possibly a third) to be sent directly across Jhurlahnk from the Langhorne Bedard river junction to the Charayn Canal to replace Kaitswyrth's after Symkyn destroys it soon.

One sub-army will head up the Langhorne to replace Wyrshym's which I've previously dubbed army group north, while another heads down the Sabana River to Dairnyth etc to replace Harless's AoS that I've designated army group south, the middle one obviously being army group center.

Hey, Lyonheart, a good post, and well reasoned. It gives rise to several thoughts.

First, I did a little research, and found out the average river barge can transport 1500 tons of materials. good call there. I do think with food being lighter than normal barge materials (and thus taking up more space), the IHA may require 2 to 3 times that number, or 4 to 6 barges per day. It would be a nightmare for the CoGA and IHA quartermasters, but it really might be doable... by boat.

By land, I'd say, difficult to impossible. The biggest problem is that the "transportation," namely, the dragons, will consume a lot of food too.

Thus, your designated Army Group North could make it up the Bedard, then Langhorne, canals, until either they run into the enemy, or they run out of workable canal.

Army Group Center, however, would have to go overland to the Charayn Canal, a straight line distance of about 750 miles. It would take them the better part of a month and a half (let's say, 9 fivedays), at a minimum. They might have a serious problem doing that, especially if Charis can figure out a way to mess with their supply situation.

Army Group South, to get to Dairnyth, would have to go overland through Faralas, or by boat through the Gulf of Tanshar. If they go by boat, I can see the ICN blowing their transports out of the water. If they go by land, it'll be a march of a thousand miles, and will take even longer. In addition, I don't think they'd be able to keep supplied by boat, as the ICN probably will control that Gulf by then. So, call it a 12 fivedays march, assuming no mud, weather delays, etc. I easily can see the ICN making this march next to impossible.

Following this reasoning, if the IHA really is split up into army groups for the purposes described, Group North would have the easiest, and fastest, time getting to some point where it could be effective.

Army Group Center will have problems - significant ones. Assuming it makes it to the Charayn Canal, it won't do so before May, and it will have its own supply and starvation issues to contend with, as well as having left a lot of ill will in its wake.

Army Group South, I expect will try to go by boat, and will be annihilated by the ICN. Or it will go by land, with the intent to be supplied by boat. No way it makes it to Dairnyth by water. Difficult to impossible for it to do it overland. I don't think it will make it to Dairnyth.

Interesting thoughts, I'm enjoying the exercise of following through on the various scenarios mentioned.

Thanks!

Hi XofDallas,

I've noted the high volume of food in past posts, but its good to keep in mind, although the new northern canals are rather capacious [barges gross weight near 3000 tons and over 96,000 cubic feet according to HFaF when building the first ironclads] so once through the Langhorne it might be smart to transfer to the larger barges, depending on their availability after the GCR [Cayleb's 'great canal raid'].

Dragons consume around 580-600 pounds of vegetable matter when they can get it, but apparently can get by on much less.

In explaining the logistic problem in HFaF, a dragon can deliver 75% of its 27 ton payload, or 20.25 tons 500 miles away in 16 days, ie consuming 13,500 pounds itself over 32 days for the round trip means 421.875 pounds per day.

Given Fort Tairys was 900 miles from Thesmar, no one on their right mind would have considered the losing proposition of a 2 stage supply system; only the Desnari would consider such a lame brain idea and think it could ever work.

Barges are easier to come up with than hundreds or thousands of dragons, at least where the CoGA needs dragons [and wagons], but over a campaign season of around 120 days it does add up.

Making 4 quarter Harchong 'army groups' reduces the direct demands to 1500 tons of fodder and 600 tons of food per day, so the AGC might start having its supplies sent up the Fairmyn to be arrive at the northwestern curve of the Charayn Canal by the time they get there.

Since most of the march is through the Border States, the food and fodder along the way can be coordinated ahead of time so the MHoGatA doesn't have to forage, thus marching around 40 miles per day.

If, as I've posted before, there isn't a road between the Sabana river and the Charayn canal now, then 300,000 infantry and 100,000 cavalry will make one by the time they get to the canal.

For AGS, it would take too long to assemble all the shipping needed besides the loading and unloading time for marching less than 800 miles, when the MHoGatA has already marched several times than distance from Harchong.

It would be much easier to deliver any further supplies the locals can't by sea before Sharpfield ever showed up, but that can be raided by ICN schooners, while the rest of the fleet remains concentrated in case Thirsk tries something.

Yes, it is fascinating, isn't it.

L


[quote="XofDallas"][quote="lyonheart"]
. . . .

If the MHoGatA is only 1.6 million men strong, that's 2400 tons per day of food which a barge or two can handle, but requires 89-119 dragons [and wagons at 27-20.25 tons @] each way; while fodder for 400,000 horses requires 6000 tons per day or at least 3 barges every day.

For an army that size marching overland without arranging the food and fodder well ahead of time could be an excellent way to starve the army.

On the march, across 5 miles on each side, a 20 miles per day advance means they pass some 128,000 acres per day and must average 37.5 pounds of food per acre per day, while the required fodder is 93.75 pounds per acre per day, keeping in mind food and fodder are not raised on the same acre.

Given the experience of the AoS starving while marching through an area that was capable of at least two crops a year, if not more, ought to make the IHA and Go4 planners recognise there will be very little food or fodder available for foraging in northern Siddarmark this spring, so movement by canal will be required.

I expect one IHA sub-army (at least a quarter but possibly a third) to be sent directly across Jhurlahnk from the Langhorne Bedard river junction to the Charayn Canal to replace Kaitswyrth's after Symkyn destroys it soon.

One sub-army will head up the Langhorne to replace Wyrshym's which I've previously dubbed army group north, while another heads down the Sabana River to Dairnyth etc to replace Harless's AoS that I've designated army group south, the middle one obviously being army group center.

[/quote]

Hey, Lyonheart, a good post, and well reasoned. It gives rise to several thoughts.

First, I did a little research, and found out the average river barge can transport 1500 tons of materials. good call there. I do think with food being lighter than normal barge materials (and thus taking up more space), the IHA may require 2 to 3 times that number, or 4 to 6 barges per day. It would be a nightmare for the CoGA and IHA quartermasters, but it really might be doable... by boat.

By land, I'd say, difficult to impossible. The biggest problem is that the "transportation," namely, the dragons, will consume a lot of food too.

Thus, your designated Army Group North could make it up the Bedard, then Langhorne, canals, until either they run into the enemy, or they run out of workable canal.

Army Group Center, however, would have to go overland to the Charayn Canal, a straight line distance of about 750 miles. It would take them the better part of a month and a half (let's say, 9 fivedays), at a minimum. They might have a serious problem doing that, especially if Charis can figure out a way to mess with their supply situation.

Army Group South, to get to Dairnyth, would have to go overland through Faralas, or by boat through the Gulf of Tanshar. If they go by boat, I can see the ICN blowing their transports out of the water. If they go by land, it'll be a march of a thousand miles, and will take even longer. In addition, I don't think they'd be able to keep supplied by boat, as the ICN probably will control that Gulf by then. So, call it a 12 fivedays march, assuming no mud, weather delays, etc. I easily can see the ICN making this march next to impossible.

Following this reasoning, if the IHA really is split up into army groups for the purposes described, Group North would have the easiest, and fastest, time getting to some point where it could be effective.

Army Group Center will have problems - significant ones. Assuming it makes it to the Charayn Canal, it won't do so before May, and it will have its own supply and starvation issues to contend with, as well as having left a lot of ill will in its wake.

Army Group South, I expect will try to go by boat, and will be annihilated by the ICN. Or it will go by land, with the intent to be supplied by boat. No way it makes it to Dairnyth by water. Difficult to impossible for it to do it overland. I don't think it will make it to Dairnyth.

Interesting thoughts, I'm enjoying the exercise of following through on the various scenarios mentioned.

Thanks![/quote]