Dohlar and Destabilization

Dairnyth to Alyksberg looks to be about 500 miles. Even if it's less, That's a lot of frontier to protect, if one is going to keep Dohlar and the Temple Lands from supporting each other.

Even assuming personnel, supplies and arms could be interdicted effectively, communications could only be slowed or hampered - they could not be stopped.

How does this factor into the various strategies and theories that have been suggested?

XofDallas wrote:Dairnyth to Alyksberg looks to be about 500 miles. Even if it's less, That's a lot of frontier to protect, if one is going to keep Dohlar and the Temple Lands from supporting each other.

Even assuming personnel, supplies and arms could be interdicted effectively, communications could only be slowed or hampered - they could not be stopped.

How does this factor into the various strategies and theories that have been suggested?

Actually you really can't physically seal the two areas off completely. But there are two things that you can do to prevent effective cooperation.

First you destroy the semaphore system connecting them along with creating blocking points along roads and canals they might use. You can't seal things shut that way, but you can make it much more difficult to cooperate effectively with each other.

The second thing you do is keep both sides sufficiently busy tending their own knitting that neither will have time or resouces to commit to pooling their efforts against you. That is the biggest reason to knocking Dohlar out of the war by either negotiation or military defeat as soon as possible.

Don

They need only block any possible desnair advance, and get that port city to the north that links to the republic canal system. Once they have that port, they can easiy ship supplies for logistics for activities in the gulf of dohlar.
a secure supply line would make long term suppression of the region much easier.

Hi Don,

Dairnyth seems to be the major semaphore junction for Dohlar and Howard, that alone would make it worth taking to stretch the communications loop to the temple from Dohlar from several hours one-way to a day or two round trip, which easily be might be more than long enough that the Go4 actions are increasingly based on obsolete data, and rapidly become irrelevant and obsolete in deciding or determining Dohlar's future.

Dohlar couldn't restore the semaphore network, and fending off at least one of the alliance armies could certainly keep Dohlar occupied, even a quarter Harchong army will require more than that to keep it from advancing on Dairnyth.

L

n7axw wrote:

XofDallas wrote:Dairnyth to Alyksberg looks to be about 500 miles. Even if it's less, That's a lot of frontier to protect, if one is going to keep Dohlar and the Temple Lands from supporting each other.

Even assuming personnel, supplies and arms could be interdicted effectively, communications could only be slowed or hampered - they could not be stopped.

How does this factor into the various strategies and theories that have been suggested?

Actually you really can't physically seal the two areas off completely. But there are two things that you can do to prevent effective cooperation.

First you destroy the semaphore system connecting them along with creating blocking points along roads and canals they might use. You can't seal things shut that way, but you can make it much more difficult to cooperate effectively with each other.

The second thing you do is keep both sides sufficiently busy tending their own knitting that neither will have time or resouces to commit to pooling their efforts against you. That is the biggest reason to knocking Dohlar out of the war by either negotiation or military defeat as soon as possible.

Don

lyonheart wrote:
I'm sure that "quality has a quantity" of its own is precisely what the temple and the Harchongese are thinking.

But less than half are armed even with rifles. If they ever manage to get at you, that Army ant mentality could make things interesting. But they are spread out for miles in their encampment, vulnerable to flanking attacks by Alliance forces from both north and south. And how well do they fare when their supply lines get cut and rations get short or nonexistent?

To sum up, think of the dragon whose brain tells its tail what to do and the tail responds with the action 10 minutes later. I think that 1.3 million Harchongese are going to find themselves in a world of hurt when they start trying to come to grips with agile alliance armies.

Don

MHO is that the forces will be split in three and the harchong contingents will head East toward North Land and South East toward Cliff Peak and South toward Dohlar. Each Army will meet different difficulties but the one going to support Dohlar will Bounce off of the Siddermark and Charisian forces. Not able to go back or into South March they will be turned into Dohlar.

What a Pretty Picture that is!

I do not believe Dohlar will be Occupied by the Alliance, but that will have a mess so grand they will not be a concern - No Army, No Navy and a armed group of Harchongese to deal with

dwileye13 wrote:

lyonheart wrote:
I'm sure that "quality has a quantity" of its own is precisely what the temple and the Harchongese are thinking.

But less than half are armed even with rifles. If they ever manage to get at you, that Army ant mentality could make things interesting. But they are spread out for miles in their encampment, vulnerable to flanking attacks by Alliance forces from both north and south. And how well do they fare when their supply lines get cut and rations get short or nonexistent?

To sum up, think of the dragon whose brain tells its tail what to do and the tail responds with the action 10 minutes later. I think that 1.3 million Harchongese are going to find themselves in a world of hurt when they start trying to come to grips with agile alliance armies.

Don

MHO is that the forces will be split in three and the harchong contingents will head East toward North Land and South East toward Cliff Peak and South toward Dohlar. Each Army will meet different difficulties but the one going to support Dohlar will Bounce off of the Siddermark and Charisian forces. Not able to go back or into South March they will be turned into Dohlar.

What a Pretty Picture that is!

I do not believe Dohlar will be Occupied by the Alliance, but that will have a mess so grand they will not be a concern - No Army, No Navy and a armed group of Harchongese to deal with

Your scenario makes good sense if you assume that they wait for the campaigning season in the spring to do it.

My speculation, however, is that they don't get the chance to do that. I think the combination of Sharpfield and Eastshire knocks Dohlar out of the war long before spring and that Harchongese will find themselves subject to flanking attacks from Eastshare in the south and possibly BVG in the North along with having their supply lines cut.

Only my speculation, though. We shall see how Safehold's creator rules...

Don

Hi Don,

I've figured on 4 quarter Harchong armies for years I guess, what RFC does will be fascinating, especially the various ways they will be whittled down, which I've suggested include river ironclads, doubling up the alliance armies, starvation via cutting supply lines, rockets, and taking advantage of the MHoGatA's poor command and control for such huge animals;which you pointed out; the dragon is too bid to protect itself.

L


[quote="n7axw"][quote="dwileye13"]*quote="lyonheart"*

I'm sure that "quality has a quantity" of its own is precisely what the temple and the Harchongese are thinking.

But less than half are armed even with rifles. If they ever manage to get at you, that Army ant mentality could make things interesting. But they are spread out for miles in their encampment, vulnerable to flanking attacks by Alliance forces from both north and south. And how well do they fare when their supply lines get cut and rations get short or nonexistent?

To sum up, think of the dragon whose brain tells its tail what to do and the tail responds with the action 10 minutes later. I think that 1.3 million Harchongese are going to find themselves in a world of hurt when they start trying to come to grips with agile alliance armies.

Don*quote*

MHO is that the forces will be split in three and the harchong contingents will head East toward North Land and South East toward Cliff Peak and South toward Dohlar. Each Army will meet different difficulties but the one going to support Dohlar will Bounce off of the Siddermark and Charisian forces. Not able to go back or into South March they will be turned into Dohlar.

What a Pretty Picture that is!

I do not believe Dohlar will be Occupied by the Alliance, but that will have a mess so grand they will not be a concern - No Army, No Navy and a armed group of Harchongese to deal with [/quote]

Your scenario makes good sense if you assume that they wait for the campaigning season in the spring to do it.

My speculation, however, is that they don't get the chance to do that. I think the combination of Sharpfield and Eastshire knocks Dohlar out of the war long before spring and that Harchongese will find themselves subject to flanking attacks from Eastshare in the south and possibly BVG in the North along with having their supply lines cut.

Only my speculation, though. We shall see how Safehold's creator rules...

Don[/quote]

Something else to consider with respect to the Harchongese Army is how it possibly can be effective. No one alive on Safehold (and certainly no one in Harchong) has ever dealt with an army this large, and they don't have the Corps structure (Corps being self-sufficient army units with their own support cadres) that Weber mentioned somewhere in LAMA. How will they be fed on the march, for example? How fast can it actually move?

Quantity has a quality all its own - but only if you can get it in somewhere near the right place and pointed somewhat in the right direction at something near the right time.

As it stands now, Rychtyr fell back to Evrytyn. He'd be an idiot to let anyone bypass him along Sheryl-Seridahn Canal. He has to fall back. The question then becomes, will he leave the locks intact? I would think that he and his Intendants would destroy the locks as they fell back.

Will they do it?

XofDallas wrote:Something else to consider with respect to the Harchongese Army is how it possibly can be effective. No one alive on Safehold (and certainly no one in Harchong) has ever dealt with an army this large, and they don't have the Corps structure (Corps being self-sufficient army units with their own support cadres) that Weber mentioned somewhere in LAMA. How will they be fed on the march, for example? How fast can it actually move?

Quantity has a quality all its own - but only if you can get it in somewhere near the right place and pointed somewhat in the right direction at something near the right time.

I think there's a good chance the Harchong armies will start to live off the land. The nobles will have absolutely no problem with their men pillaging the locals and adding in some other war crimes in the looting too. That might lead to some of the nobles running the HE armies to decide to take over the local area (cities) as their own private fiefdom (or as an expansion of the Harchong Empire), and to try and get the support of the Church Inquisitors with them. It's likely to not work, but I can see the Harchong nobles being arrogant enough to try it in some places. And some sufficiently bribed Inquisitors allowing it if it looks like the local rulers seem insufficiently motivated to support the Army of God.