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Dohlar and Destabilization

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Re: Dohlar and Destabilization
Post by n7axw   » Fri Sep 19, 2014 4:26 pm

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Weird Harold wrote:
lyonheart wrote:Hi Tootall,

First, what proof will Clyntahn have to blame Ahlverez?

The fact he survived certainly doesn't mean he's cowardly, the fact he brought almost 48,000 troops out with him, unlike Hennet, speaks volumes; even Clyntahn isn't that stupid.


A very rational analysis, but your whole argument hinges on Clyntahn being rational too. IMHO, Clyntahn is anything but rational. He doesn't need "proof" beyond the mere fact of Ahlvarez' survival; that is proof enough that he lacks sufficient faith to die for the Church's glory.


Hi Harold,
I pretty much agree with your point. There are two things I would mention that seem pertinet, however. One is that Clyntahn is soon going to be preoccupied in other directions...like with what is about to happen to the Army of God, for example. Secondly, I wouldn't be surprised to see Dohlar under military pressure that will encourage inquisitors interested in keeping their heads to start looking for safer pastures.

The universe Clyntahn has created for himself where he can play God is about to experience rapid shrinkage.

Don
When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: Dohlar and Destabilization
Post by jmseeley   » Fri Sep 19, 2014 8:41 pm

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lyonheart wrote:Hi JMSeeley,

Kudos for restating the relationship between Desnar and Dohlar, and Desnar's reaction to any Desnari charges.

Clyntahn arresting Ahlverez after he's become the CoGA's biggest hero, NTM Dohlar and Desnar's [the 13,000 infantry have to have some relatives] would be the cherry on top of all his doozy mistakes. :lol:

Rychtyr has another army though we don't know its size, or that of its reinforcements yet.

Yet against an apparent foe well over 100,000 men strong, even 30-40,000 men pales trying to defend a border 900+ miles long is obviously doomed.

So regarding options 1 and 2;

A Sherman's style march through Dohlar might satisfy the republic's desire for revenge, but would be bad long term especially if it had to be broken off to deal with TMHoGatA or some large contingent thereof, and Dohlar feels its been saved by divine providence or TMHoGatA, either of them even if later defeated would make Dohlarans more intransigent.

Taking Dairnyth if Symkyn is slow destroying Kaitswyrth, would certainly tick off Clyntahn, but it would also bury all of Clyntahn's machinations subverting Allayn's authority, which I don't think is going to happen for some reason. ;)

Either can spell plenty of trouble for the Jihad, but given the King Haarahld' VII's won't arrive in the Gulf of Dohlar until late July or August, Dairnyth seems the more probable, because its more effective for the time period while DE's 70,000 men can't control or guard his logistics that deep into Dohlar, though he might consider destroying or demolishing most of the old border defenses as he moves toward Dairnyth. :D

L



Main attack routes seem to stay pretty close to rivers and canals to keep supplies moving. That's why the Dohlarans are reinforcing Evrytyn - the Sheryl-Seridahn canal into Dohlar connects to the Seridahn river. I think they'll try to fortify the hell out of it since the big lesson of LAMA is that a strong fortification can break an attacking army. How well that would work against the Charisians remains to be seen.

The Dohlarans have to be eliminated as an offensive force to secure the Alliance's flank. If Ahlverez realizes that he might decide that preserving his forces by retreating back into Dohlar could be more effective that standing and fighting in Evrytyn. Of course Clyntahn will want them to stand to protect Kaitswyrth. The difference in priorities could could cause a serious rift between the Church and Dohlar.

Once Evrytyn is secure, I agree that going for Dairnyth is more likely. It cuts Kaitswyrth's supply line, It's part of the goal of expelling invading forces from Siddarmark, and it also has potential as a Charisian port deep in the Gulf of Dohlar. Once the KHVIIs arrive, it could be a coaling station.

I was toying with the idea of 'Eastshare's march to Gorath', but I think that a strong raiding force based Evrytyn (assuming they take it) is more realistic. Something that can keep any remaining Dohlaran forces off balance, smashing defenses, and destroying any manufactories in the vicinity.

As the Sword of Schueler goes into reverse (as it were) I only see Chyntahn becoming more assertive and vicious. I think that his control will be unquestioned in the areas the Inquisition can reach, but that area is going to start to shrink. Once the ICN effectively closes the Gulf it may only be a matter of time before hatred of the Inquisition overcomes fear of it in Dohlar and in Howard as a whole, especially if Clyntahn is seen as sacrificing Dohlar for his own ends.

jms
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Re: Dohlar and Destabilization
Post by 6L6   » Fri Sep 19, 2014 9:28 pm

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If Clyntahn were to send his inquisitors to arrest Ahlverez there is allways the chance that Ahlverezes troops would just shoot every one of them.
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Re: Dohlar and Destabilization
Post by n7axw   » Fri Sep 19, 2014 10:45 pm

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jmseeley wrote:
lyonheart wrote:Hi JMSeeley,

Kudos for restating the relationship between Desnar and Dohlar, and Desnar's reaction to any Desnari charges.

Clyntahn arresting Ahlverez after he's become the CoGA's biggest hero, NTM Dohlar and Desnar's [the 13,000 infantry have to have some relatives] would be the cherry on top of all his doozy mistakes. :lol:

Rychtyr has another army though we don't know its size, or that of its reinforcements yet.

Yet against an apparent foe well over 100,000 men strong, even 30-40,000 men pales trying to defend a border 900+ miles long is obviously doomed.

So regarding options 1 and 2;

A Sherman's style march through Dohlar might satisfy the republic's desire for revenge, but would be bad long term especially if it had to be broken off to deal with TMHoGatA or some large contingent thereof, and Dohlar feels its been saved by divine providence or TMHoGatA, either of them even if later defeated would make Dohlarans more intransigent.

Taking Dairnyth if Symkyn is slow destroying Kaitswyrth, would certainly tick off Clyntahn, but it would also bury all of Clyntahn's machinations subverting Allayn's authority, which I don't think is going to happen for some reason. ;)

Either can spell plenty of trouble for the Jihad, but given the King Haarahld' VII's won't arrive in the Gulf of Dohlar until late July or August, Dairnyth seems the more probable, because its more effective for the time period while DE's 70,000 men can't control or guard his logistics that deep into Dohlar, though he might consider destroying or demolishing most of the old border defenses as he moves toward Dairnyth. :D

L



Main attack routes seem to stay pretty close to rivers and canals to keep supplies moving. That's why the Dohlarans are reinforcing Evrytyn - the Sheryl-Seridahn canal into Dohlar connects to the Seridahn river. I think they'll try to fortify the hell out of it since the big lesson of LAMA is that a strong fortification can break an attacking army. How well that would work against the Charisians remains to be seen.

The Dohlarans have to be eliminated as an offensive force to secure the Alliance's flank. If Ahlverez realizes that he might decide that preserving his forces by retreating back into Dohlar could be more effective that standing and fighting in Evrytyn. Of course Clyntahn will want them to stand to protect Kaitswyrth. The difference in priorities could could cause a serious rift between the Church and Dohlar.

Once Evrytyn is secure, I agree that going for Dairnyth is more likely. It cuts Kaitswyrth's supply line, It's part of the goal of expelling invading forces from Siddarmark, and it also has potential as a Charisian port deep in the Gulf of Dohlar. Once the KHVIIs arrive, it could be a coaling station.

I was toying with the idea of 'Eastshare's march to Gorath', but I think that a strong raiding force based Evrytyn (assuming they take it) is more realistic. Something that can keep any remaining Dohlaran forces off balance, smashing defenses, and destroying any manufactories in the vicinity.

As the Sword of Schueler goes into reverse (as it were) I only see Chyntahn becoming more assertive and vicious. I think that his control will be unquestioned in the areas the Inquisition can reach, but that area is going to start to shrink. Once the ICN effectively closes the Gulf it may only be a matter of time before hatred of the Inquisition overcomes fear of it in Dohlar and in Howard as a whole, especially if Clyntahn is seen as sacrificing Dohlar for his own ends.

jms


I agree that the area controlled by the inquisition is going to shrink.

I would point out, however, that if Eastshare enters Dohlar, his supply lines do lengthen out, but once the riverclads get into the Gulf of Dohlar, Eastshare can be supplied by sea.

Don
When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: Dohlar and Destabilization
Post by SYED   » Sat Sep 20, 2014 12:40 am

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They must sent weapons and men to the land border immeadiatly, but their armories were emptied to army the harchongs, and their avaiable men are in the navy. The only way to quickly reinforce the border is to strip men and weaponry from the nazy on a large scale.
DO they even have the canal boats to move the men, and what is the capacity of hteir canal system? That would be an issue concerning how many men and weapons can be sen the quickest. IT would take longer to simply march the men.

The allied forces are concentrating on two things, chasing the enemy, and removing their logistics and fortifications. While it is possible that the retreating army may out run their pursuers. Can they get to Evrytyn before te advancing forces, while a ruin, any advance in or out of dohlar depends on that canal access, so will be a priority. i doubt they could hold back the enemy, they have little or no supplies left, so escape is possible not really in them for another holding action.
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Re: Dohlar and Destabilization
Post by lyonheart   » Sat Sep 20, 2014 5:21 pm

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Hi Don,

Its possible, once the new river ironclads arrive, that DE can advance down the canals into Dohlar quickly , the ironclads protecting the few barge loads he will need, since one barge will probably last him a whole 5day, while being towed up to 200 miles per day means he could have up a month's supplies near his canal head, while his engineers ought to keep the locks in good repair.

L


n7axw wrote:
jmseeley wrote:*quote="lyonheart"*Hi JMSeeley,

Kudos for restating the relationship between Desnar and Dohlar, and Desnar's reaction to any Desnari charges.

Clyntahn arresting Ahlverez after he's become the CoGA's biggest hero, NTM Dohlar and Desnar's [the 13,000 infantry have to have some relatives] would be the cherry on top of all his doozy mistakes. :lol:

Rychtyr has another army though we don't know its size, or that of its reinforcements yet.

Yet against an apparent foe well over 100,000 men strong, even 30-40,000 men pales trying to defend a border 900+ miles long is obviously doomed.

So regarding options 1 and 2;

A Sherman's style march through Dohlar might satisfy the republic's desire for revenge, but would be bad long term especially if it had to be broken off to deal with TMHoGatA or some large contingent thereof, and Dohlar feels its been saved by divine providence or TMHoGatA, either of them even if later defeated would make Dohlarans more intransigent.

Taking Dairnyth if Symkyn is slow destroying Kaitswyrth, would certainly tick off Clyntahn, but it would also bury all of Clyntahn's machinations subverting Allayn's authority, which I don't think is going to happen for some reason. ;)

Either can spell plenty of trouble for the Jihad, but given the King Haarahld' VII's won't arrive in the Gulf of Dohlar until late July or August, Dairnyth seems the more probable, because its more effective for the time period while DE's 70,000 men can't control or guard his logistics that deep into Dohlar, though he might consider destroying or demolishing most of the old border defenses as he moves toward Dairnyth. :D

L

*quote*

Main attack routes seem to stay pretty close to rivers and canals to keep supplies moving. That's why the Dohlarans are reinforcing Evrytyn - the Sheryl-Seridahn canal into Dohlar connects to the Seridahn river. I think they'll try to fortify the hell out of it since the big lesson of LAMA is that a strong fortification can break an attacking army. How well that would work against the Charisians remains to be seen.

The Dohlarans have to be eliminated as an offensive force to secure the Alliance's flank. If Ahlverez realizes that he might decide that preserving his forces by retreating back into Dohlar could be more effective that standing and fighting in Evrytyn. Of course Clyntahn will want them to stand to protect Kaitswyrth. The difference in priorities could could cause a serious rift between the Church and Dohlar.

Once Evrytyn is secure, I agree that going for Dairnyth is more likely. It cuts Kaitswyrth's supply line, It's part of the goal of expelling invading forces from Siddarmark, and it also has potential as a Charisian port deep in the Gulf of Dohlar. Once the KHVIIs arrive, it could be a coaling station.

I was toying with the idea of 'Eastshare's march to Gorath', but I think that a strong raiding force based Evrytyn (assuming they take it) is more realistic. Something that can keep any remaining Dohlaran forces off balance, smashing defenses, and destroying any manufactories in the vicinity.

As the Sword of Schueler goes into reverse (as it were) I only see Chyntahn becoming more assertive and vicious. I think that his control will be unquestioned in the areas the Inquisition can reach, but that area is going to start to shrink. Once the ICN effectively closes the Gulf it may only be a matter of time before hatred of the Inquisition overcomes fear of it in Dohlar and in Howard as a whole, especially if Clyntahn is seen as sacrificing Dohlar for his own ends.

jms


I agree that the area controlled by the inquisition is going to shrink.

I would point out, however, that if Eastshare enters Dohlar, his supply lines do lengthen out, but once the riverclads get into the Gulf of Dohlar, Eastshare can be supplied by sea.

Don
Any snippet or post from RFC is good if not great!
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Re: Dohlar and Destabilization
Post by lyonheart   » Sat Sep 20, 2014 6:15 pm

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Hi SYED,

Canals are the nearest thing Safehold has at the moment to a high speed route of advance, as RFC has said.

You're quite right that Dohlar can't rearm another army Ahlverez's size immediately, since their rifle production may only be a thousand per month, but they do have some backlog from shipping what TMHoGatA required, which should have been sent a couple month's ago, but what they did have was already sent to Rychtyr.

Stripping the navy would help but not enough fast enough; if Thirsk has 75 war galleons with 200 rifles each (we're not sure he does) that's only 15,000 [~13 regiments] and still several 5days away from helping Rychtyr, Ahlverez or fortifying some place behind them.

Logistically, I'm pretty sure Dohlar has enough barges etc, but not enough time since Evrytyn is 1250 miles away as the wyvern flies, closer to 2000 miles by canal and river assuming connecting high roads, so marching directly might actually be faster.

But that's complicated by the fact there seems to be no canal link between Gorath City or its river and and the border canals, a remarkably glaring error that could hurt Dohlar, possibly mortally.

While it might be a defensive measure, such a deliberate failure has hurt the Dohlaran economy for centuries and is rather surprising, so it might be just a glitch in the map.

DE won't assault Evrytyn, but sidestep and threaten its supply line, while Ahlverez won't attempt to attack Hanth from the rear unless he wants to lose most of what's left of his army.

I doubt Ahlverez will go south because Somyr has been destroyed, but the semaphore route through Silkiah mike be the means to letting Gorath and Zion know he made it; so marching east south of the Seridahn river then north to Evrytyn makes the most sense to me.

Such a long route could mean DE makes it to Evrytyn sooner, and by taking control of the locks in Rychtyr's rear using cavalry and scout snipers etc, compel him to surrender or retreat before Ahlverez can 'reinforce' him.

At which point, Dohlar might surrender or seek terms to avoid being sliced into worthless indefensible pieces.

Now that would tick Clyntahn off. 8-)

L


SYED wrote:They must sent weapons and men to the land border immeadiatly, but their armories were emptied to army the harchongs, and their avaiable men are in the navy. The only way to quickly reinforce the border is to strip men and weaponry from the nazy on a large scale.
DO they even have the canal boats to move the men, and what is the capacity of hteir canal system? That would be an issue concerning how many men and weapons can be sen the quickest. IT would take longer to simply march the men.

The allied forces are concentrating on two things, chasing the enemy, and removing their logistics and fortifications. While it is possible that the retreating army may out run their pursuers. Can they get to Evrytyn before te advancing forces, while a ruin, any advance in or out of dohlar depends on that canal access, so will be a priority. i doubt they could hold back the enemy, they have little or no supplies left, so escape is possible not really in them for another holding action.
Any snippet or post from RFC is good if not great!
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Re: Dohlar and Destabilization
Post by PeterZ   » Sat Sep 20, 2014 7:43 pm

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I am reading this thread but cannot seriously consider that Dohlar has a snowball's chance in hell of surviving intact. No matter what Rychtair or Ahlvarez attempt, they are hosed. All High Mount or Eastshare need to do to defeat Rychtair is barrage Evyrtyn with their 6" angles and have enough mobile forces to crush his Burt if he leaves the city. The remaining forces available to DE follows Ahlvarez into Dohlar. I believe Ahlvarez makes it home while DE and HM mops up the Desnari forces and bottles up Rychtair. Rychtair can't fight his way home. His is facing too many soldiers with far to much mobility and flexibility. He either stays put and forces DE to divert troops away from chasing Ahlvarez or he leaves and loses his force PDQ.

Dohlar can only mount a guerrilla campaign against an invading ICA. They don't have the firepower to meet the ICA in the field and the ICA doesn't need to assault RDA fixed positions. Bombardment of powerfully defended positions will break any Dohlaran force. Back that up with enough infantry to gut any counter attacks while mobile forces control the countryside and Dohlar is toast. Heck, that is duty RSA equipped with muzzle loaders can do. After all the BLs either have been sent to Harchong or are with the forces inside the fortified positions.

The only thing that remains for Dohlar is the salvage some vestige central authority.
Last edited by PeterZ on Sun Sep 21, 2014 12:25 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Dohlar and Destabilization
Post by jmseeley   » Sat Sep 20, 2014 8:40 pm

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Posts: 107
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n7axw wrote:
I agree that the area controlled by the inquisition is going to shrink.

I would point out, however, that if Eastshare enters Dohlar, his supply lines do lengthen out, but once the riverclads get into the Gulf of Dohlar, Eastshare can be supplied by sea.

Don


I don't see a full-scale invasion into Dohlar, more like brigade-scale raids to make it harder for the Dohlarans to reconstitute an army capable of taking the offense. And even that is predicated on a defense of Evrytyn that leave Dohlaran forces gutted. That leaves Eastshare's left flank reasonably secure, while his right flank is guarded by the Snake Mountains.

If he goes as far as Dairnyth he can be supplied from Thesmar via the Seridahn River and the Dairnyth-Alyksberg Canal. Remember that Dairnyth is the bit of Siddarmark that's on the Gulf of Dohlar. It IS a long way out, but the strategic advantages may be worth it.

Once again, though - this depends on completely eliminating the RDAs offensive capability. And I think that that turns on how stubbornly the RDA tries to hold Evrytyn, And I think that may depend on Ahlverez remaining forces getting there.

jms
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Re: Dohlar and Destabilization
Post by 6L6   » Sat Sep 20, 2014 10:07 pm

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The Empire needs to capture the canal first, then send the river boats to destroy the Dohlarian Navy I think it is too dangerous to send the larger ironclades inshore. Then the navy could move up the rivers sowing destruction in their wake while the army raids inland. I think that most of the pouplation would be centered along the shores and rivers. Dohlar could loose it's industrial base and be knocked out of the war.
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