Thesmar

I think I have to go back and re-read MT&T to discover what the actual goal of that army was. You don't send an army that size off to simply reinforce a fixed position such as Fort Tairys, and which was not, at the time of the launching of the army required.

However, whatever their goals were, they certainly failed to achieve them. By failing to take Thesmar, they left an open wound behind them before they took off on a 1,000 mile march. I know that the army has been renamed "The Army of Shiloh" which certainly indicates that it's area of operations is to be the province of Shiloh and thus it needs to be there, which means either passing through Ft. Tairys or the southern end of the Shingle mountains.

The goal of all of the Temple-affiliated armies is (or, was) to conquer Siddarmark before Stohnar can recruit and retrain Siddarmark army, and before Charisians can send more troops and also send weapons to Siddarmarkian troops.

To that end, they wanted to cover as much ground - as many provinces - as possible.

And that was their essential problem - the farther they went, the supply chain would become more and more stretched. But Harless, obviously, did not quite understand that... partly because of his own superiority complex, partly because Desnair never in history had a chance to go that deep in. (In fact, after Siddarmarkians started using pikes, Desnairians had to be worried about Siddarmark expanding in their direction)

If they stayed at Thesmar, a lot of their people would have died. Even if they managed to take Thesmar, so many would have died in that assault that they would not have a functional army any more, and all it would do would be to give more time to Stohnar and Cayleb to prepare more troops.

Also, the Harchong army was coming from behind, so perhaps Harless thought that he might as well leave that tough nut for them to crack their teeth on...

Aethor wrote:Also, the Harchong army was coming from behind, so perhaps Harless thought that he might as well leave that tough nut for them to crack their teeth on...

The Harchongese were headed NORTH on the Holy Langhorne when the Great Canal Raid forced Duchairn to leave them in the southern border states, and unfortunately, get quite a lot of rifles for them, as well as Temple guardsmen to train them so that they'll be less like cannon fodder. Unfortunately they'll still be like a swarm of locusts wherever they might be if their supply lines are cut, and a bit hard on the local population as Duchairn pointed out, especially the local population's daughters.

BGV will have to deal with them, or perhaps some will be diverted southward toward Cliff Peak and Glacierheart where an even warmer greeting than DE gave Kaitswyrth is waiting for them. They could continue to ship them south towards Thesmar, assuming that CoGA forces still control the Daivyn River by that time, but it's going to take a long time for any Harchongese to get to Thesmar by barge, and the ironclads will make sure they have to walk from the first set of locks on the Sheridan river.

It might be quicker to march them overland to Selyk in West March, but that's about 500-600 miles in country where they can't forage, plus all the locals are supposed to be "friendlies," although the outrage the average TL father would feel after his his wife and daughters have been "visited" by the Harchongese as they pass by - for several five-days would probably be enough to turn Clyntahn into a raving Reformist!

The easiest solution if Magwair wants Harchongese troops attacking Thesmar is to barge them back to the Gulf of Dohlar and ship them to Dairnyth, and then on the Dairnyth - Alyksberg canal, then south until they run into Charisian and/or Siddarmarkan forces. There's just one little complication in trying that - in a few months the ironclad Rottweilers and the fleet accompanying them will be more than happy to sink any transport ships they find, and the Bay of Bess will be a Charisian lake for all practical purposes.

Thirsk may think he can sally with his fleet now that he has exploding shells, and he would do tremendous damage to any ICN flotilla he managed to gang up on at better than 2-1 odds, and those odds are required since the ICN fires much bigger shells. The Rottweilers also out-range anything afloat at the moment, although the poor accuracy of firing at ships on a heaving ocean reduces that advantage quite a bit. But they fire BIG shells, so half a dozen hits (or less) from them would toast any of Thirsk's ships. No ship of the ICN will ever surrender again either, so it will broadsides, boarding pikes, swords, boots to the groin, and teeth until every single Charisian is dead. The new pistols would be quite useful in boarding actions...

Thesmar is likely to be the launching point for the eventual invasion of western Dohlar, or at the very least to send dragoons to constantly blow the locks on the Sheryl - Sheridahn canal and cut off the supply lines to Evrytyn, which will give the Dohlarans currently dug in there no option but to retreat, even if Alvarez gets there without being caught and having his surviving troops decimated. The ironclads will cut off the lower end of the Sheridahn river, so any attack of Thesmar is going to require a long walk. If the ironclads can get into Lake Somyr, they'll drop the bridge over the Somyr river and play havoc with any further Desnairan ventures northward.

Frankly, considering the high number of nobles who died when the AoS was destroyed, there's going to be some serious political repercussions back in Desnair, and it may be out of the war in Siddarmark. Considering the fun the ICN is currently having in the Gulf of Jahras with a little guidance from "Merlin's spies," along with Dohlar's refusal to give Desnair's troops landing rights or to carry them in its own (soon to be sunk) transport ships makes moving troops and supplies from Desnair to Siddarmark extremely difficult It's highly unlikely that Desnair will be able to field another army the size of the AoS again.

That being the case, the Salthar canal is likely to be very high on Charis' wish list. Cutting 20,000 miles off the voyage to supply its fleet in the Gulf of Dohlar would be a gift from the Archangels. Literally! Thanks for building it Shan-wei!

I can't wait for the Haarahld VIIs to arrive in Gorath Bay! Wanna lay bets on whether King Ronnie escapes? Will Thirsk jump sides if his family is rescued from the tender mercies of the Inquisition? Will he surrender what remains of his fleet when he's confronted by the Haarahld VIIs, which will be able to run down and destroy anything Thirsk has, while his ships can't even dent them!

Good times. I can't wait to see how Clyntahn handles all the bad news. Maybe he'll finally have that stroke we've been expecting for a few years now.

McGuiness wrote:

Aethor wrote:Also, the Harchong army was coming from behind, so perhaps Harless thought that he might as well leave that tough nut for them to crack their teeth on...

The Harchongese were headed NORTH on the Holy Langhorne when the Great Canal Raid forced Duchairn to leave them in the southern border states, and unfortunately, get quite a lot of rifles for them, as well as Temple guardsmen to train them so that they'll be less like cannon fodder. Unfortunately they'll still be like a swarm of locusts wherever they might be if their supply lines are cut, and a bit hard on the local population as Duchairn pointed out, especially the local population's daughters.

BGV will have to deal with them, or perhaps some will be diverted southward toward Cliff Peak and Glacierheart where an even warmer greeting than DE gave Kaitswyrth is waiting for them. They could continue to ship them south towards Thesmar, assuming that CoGA forces still control the Daivyn River by that time, but it's going to take a long time for any Harchongese to get to Thesmar by barge, and the ironclads will make sure they have to walk from the first set of locks on the Sheridan river.

It might be quicker to march them overland to Selyk in West March, but that's about 500-600 miles in country where they can't forage, plus all the locals are supposed to be "friendlies," although the outrage the average TL father would feel after his his wife and daughters have been "visited" by the Harchongese as they pass by - for several five-days would probably be enough to turn Clyntahn into a raving Reformist!

The easiest solution if Magwair wants Harchongese troops attacking Thesmar is to barge them back to the Gulf of Dohlar and ship them to Dairnyth, and then on the Dairnyth - Alyksberg canal, then south until they run into Charisian and/or Siddarmarkan forces. There's just one little complication in trying that - in a few months the ironclad Rottweilers and the fleet accompanying them will be more than happy to sink any transport ships they find, and the Bay of Bess will be a Charisian lake for all practical purposes.

Thirsk may think he can sally with his fleet now that he has exploding shells, and he would do tremendous damage to any ICN flotilla he managed to gang up on at better than 2-1 odds, and those odds are required since the ICN fires much bigger shells. The Rottweilers also out-range anything afloat at the moment, although the poor accuracy of firing at ships on a heaving ocean reduces that advantage quite a bit. But they fire BIG shells, so half a dozen hits (or less) from them would toast any of Thirsk's ships. No ship of the ICN will ever surrender again either, so it will broadsides, boarding pikes, swords, boots to the groin, and teeth until every single Charisian is dead. The new pistols would be quite useful in boarding actions...

Thesmar is likely to be the launching point for the eventual invasion of western Dohlar, or at the very least to send dragoons to constantly blow the locks on the Sheryl - Sheridahn canal and cut off the supply lines to Evrytyn, which will give the Dohlarans currently dug in there no option but to retreat, even if Alvarez gets there without being caught and having his surviving troops decimated. The ironclads will cut off the lower end of the Sheridahn river, so any attack of Thesmar is going to require a long walk. If the ironclads can get into Lake Somyr, they'll drop the bridge over the Somyr river and play havoc with any further Desnairan ventures northward.

Frankly, considering the high number of nobles who died when the AoS was destroyed, there's going to be some serious political repercussions back in Desnair, and it may be out of the war in Siddarmark. Considering the fun the ICN is currently having in the Gulf of Jahras with a little guidance from "Merlin's spies," along with Dohlar's refusal to give Desnair's troops landing rights or to carry them in its own (soon to be sunk) transport ships makes moving troops and supplies from Desnair to Siddarmark extremely difficult It's highly unlikely that Desnair will be able to field another army the size of the AoS again.

That being the case, the Salthar canal is likely to be very high on Charis' wish list. Cutting 20,000 miles off the voyage to supply its fleet in the Gulf of Dohlar would be a gift from the Archangels. Literally! Thanks for building it Shan-wei!

I can't wait for the Haarahld VIIs to arrive in Gorath Bay! Wanna lay bets on whether King Ronnie escapes? Will Thirsk jump sides if his family is rescued from the tender mercies of the Inquisition? Will he surrender what remains of his fleet when he's confronted by the Haarahld VIIs, which will be able to run down and destroy anything Thirsk has, while his ships can't even dent them!

Good times. I can't wait to see how Clyntahn handles all the bad news. Maybe he'll finally have that stroke we've been expecting for a few years now.

Nice analysis. I agree that Desnair is out of the war. They can still raise the manpower, but probably not equip a modern army. If things go as I ecpect, Howard will soon be cut off from Haven anyway and Desnair will be isolated and out of it.

Don

n7axw wrote:
Nice analysis. I agree that Desnair is out of the war. They can still raise the manpower, but probably not equip a modern army. If things go as I ecpect, Howard will soon be cut off from Haven anyway and Desnair will be isolated and out of it.

Don

I don't think they're completely out of the war. They still control the Salthar Canal and despite the ICN rampaging in the Gulf of Jahras they're still sending out privateers. My guess is that the Alliance will take the canal and extend Silkiah south to the north shore of the Gulf. But after that happens I agree with you - Desnair will be a bit like Delferahk - nominally a combatant but strategically irrelevant.

After the war, I think that Desnair may be to Dohlar as India was to Britain. Assuming Dohlar still exists, of course.

jms

Desnair is going to have one last stand in Silkiah. And THEN they are out of the war.

once desnair is pushed out of silkiah, the only involvement in the war is target practise, when charis takes out their ports and coatal setllements to keep them in line.

Direwolf18 wrote:Desnair is going to have one last stand in Silkiah. And THEN they are out of the war.

A last stand? A last stand with what? They don't have anything left in Haven to make a last stand with. They've already lost their field army north of the Saltash Canal...

Dohlar, on the other hand, still has about 90,000 troops on their own turf. Teamed up with Ahlvarez's survivors, could number as high as 120,000 men. If they could arm and equip those men, that could still get dicey. We'll see.

Don

n7axw wrote:

Direwolf18 wrote:Desnair is going to have one last stand in Silkiah. And THEN they are out of the war.

A last stand? A last stand with what? They don't have anything left in Haven to make a last stand with. They've already lost their field army north of the Salthar Canal...

Dohlar, on the other hand, still has about 90,000 troops on their own turf. Teamed up with Ahlvarez's survivors, could number as high as 120,000 men. If they could arm and equip those men, that could still get dicey. We'll see.

Don

I concur that Desnair is out of the war in Siddarmark. Whether the EoC could take the Salthar canal in Silkiah and prevent the TLs from blowing the locks is a very dicey proposition. 400 miles of canal to protect, and blowing a single set of locks would make it unusable for weeks.

The wildcard that nobody ever mentions is the attitude toward the jihad, the CoGA,and especially the Go4 in Silkiah. For now it's keeping its head down to avoid a SoS, but it happily violated the embargo, which should give us a hint about Reformist sentiment there. Should the ICA try to take the Salthar canal, which way Silkiah jumps (or what its local TLs do) would have meaningful effects on the EoC seizing and keeping the Salthar canal operational.

I don't think it's possible to take the canal intact. The locks are probably already set with charges, with orders to blow them the second a Charisian attack occurs. A feint to make it appear that the ICA intends to seize the canal would be eminently worthwhile if that's the case, since the canal would immediately be disabled and unavailable for the CoGA - and it's currently being used as the main shipping route for Desnairan supplies.

Sort of a reverse take on Shannon Foraker's famous "Oops!"

The Dohlaran position at Evrytyn can be easily broken by blowing the locks on the Sheryl - Sheridahn canal to the west of it. That would leave the Dohlaran troops in an untenable position with their supplies cut off, and at that point they'd either have to wait out a siege in hopes of it being broken by whatever church forces could reach them in time - probably a large Harchongese force, but I think the logistics of moving enough troops to chase off the besieging forces are seriously threatened by the ICN in the Gulf of Dohlar.

So Ahlverez should order an immediate retreat from Everytyn if he manages to get there without being intercepted by Hanth's forces. (Who could really benefit from a visit by seijin Ahbraim right now.) Make Hanth a member of the inner circle YESTERDAY!!!!!

Thirsk cannot stop the Rottweilers, and the ICN would be more than happy to let him try! If they get into the Gulf of Bess and blockade Dairynth, any reinforcements will have to come through the border states or from Dohlar itself, which has a great deal(or possibly most) of its remaining army at Everytyn.

The clock is ticking before the Haarahld VIIs are completed and head for Gorath with some long unfinished payback to deliver... and Thirsk may not have much of a fleet left for them to destroy when they arrive!

Hi MacGuiness,

Taking the locks might be more possible than you think. In LAMA read about BVG's attack on Maiyam. Those locks were set with explosives but taken anyway. It would probably depend on being able to arrange a surprise. They are deep enough in enemy territory that the guard probably wouldn't be too heavy.

As for holding the canal, really what you would have to do is hold the locks and then convoy any stuff through with calvary on either bank. Other than the locks, the basic thing would be to put a blocking force in place to keep Desnair penned in Howard.

My only other comment to your post would be that most of what Harchong has is strung out up north along the Langhorne canal. They could probably raise more to relieve the Dohlarians, but how would they arm them? Only about have of what they have already raised is armed with anything you could conceivably take into combat against an Alliance army. Being unable to effectively equip their forces rather than raising more manpower is also the thing that will prevent Desnair from reentering the war.

Don