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Solarian Military Catchup Attempts

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Re: Solarian Military Catchup Attempts
Post by Dafmeister   » Thu Dec 04, 2014 8:28 am

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drothgery wrote:Stuff like this is why I tend to think the ineffectiveness of SLN intelligence is more enemy action than incompetence. Manticore is a critical transportation and financial hub. It's one jump away from a core League member. It's been at war for the last two decades, with someone they had been expecting war with for decades before that (and everyone paying the slightest bit of attention knew all of this).

Many of the battles in the Havenite wars were observed by neutral reporters. The debates in the Manticoran Parliament about what to build (and what to scrap or suspend production of) was largely public. If you didn't know warfare had been revolutionized, you were not paying the slightest bit of attention, or actively being diverted.


The debates aren't as public as you might think, a lot of the detail would be concealed even from members of Parliament. For example, the first Medusa-class ships were listed in the Naval Estimates as a new flight of the Gryphon-class to preserve security around the SD(P)s and Ghost Rider.

In addition, it's really impossible to overestimate the institutional and cultural superiority complex of the Solarian League. No report of improved capability, no report of combat effectiveness has any validity. The reaction of the League as a whole, and particularly the SLN, basically amounts to "Oh look, this bunch of fuzzy-wuzzies has longer spears than that bunch of fuzzy-wuzzies. How droll!" *SLN goes back to polishing its Maxim gun.*
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Re: Solarian Military Catchup Attempts
Post by drothgery   » Thu Dec 04, 2014 11:51 am

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Dafmeister wrote:The debates aren't as public as you might think, a lot of the detail would be concealed even from members of Parliament. For example, the first Medusa-class ships were listed in the Naval Estimates as a new flight of the Gryphon-class to preserve security around the SD(P)s and Ghost Rider.
I'm mostly talking about the period between the first and second war here. When Hamish Alexander and Honor Harrington were the most important members of the opposition in the Manticoran House of Lords on the Naval Affairs committee.
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Re: Solarian Military Catchup Attempts
Post by Valen123456   » Thu Dec 04, 2014 3:40 pm

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drothgery wrote:
Dafmeister wrote:The debates aren't as public as you might think, a lot of the detail would be concealed even from members of Parliament. For example, the first Medusa-class ships were listed in the Naval Estimates as a new flight of the Gryphon-class to preserve security around the SD(P)s and Ghost Rider.
I'm mostly talking about the period between the first and second war here. When Hamish Alexander and Honor Harrington were the most important members of the opposition in the Manticoran House of Lords on the Naval Affairs committee.


To quote one Sollie character I cannot remember "How good does one Neo-Barb have to be to beat up on another batch of Neo-Barb's?" That was pretty much the extend of their thinking on that at that point. Manticore was a prominent and rather uppity blip on the far distant and unimportant horizon as far the the League was concerned. Even Haven's early expansions and unprovoked territory grabs where dismissed as a "hehehe! look at that little one over there, isn't its mindless little ambitious aggression cute" kind of thought.

Manticore and Haven just were not important to the Leagues movers and shakers, a fact that they are now (since Case Laocoon) learning to their cost, though they would never had admitted that at the time, and even now say it with clenched teeth. And the period during and after the First Havenite war was only really soured by the fact the Manticore had exercised its economic muscles and extradited the policy against tech transfers to Haven at the time. But that slap in the face was still not considered important since the Mandarins would much rather keep everything "business as usual", and trying to use some of the more underhanded methods normally used by OFS in the Protectorates would not have worked on a system like Manticore which was too strong and well connected to be absorbed quietly.

Manticore and others would also never have actually done anything to directly provoke the League if it were not for the Mesan Alignment starting to stir up the pot, with them as the ideal target for the Leagues key opponent. Until then as far as the League and its military were concerned they were free to ignore it. Their own little in-house power-games and political/financial maneuvers were more important to them at the time.

Now as we all know ... that's bitten/biting them very hard!
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Re: Solarian Military Catchup Attempts
Post by drothgery   » Thu Dec 04, 2014 4:35 pm

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Valen123456 wrote:To quote one Sollie character I cannot remember "How good does one Neo-Barb have to be to beat up on another batch of Neo-Barb's?" That was pretty much the extend of their thinking on that at that point. Manticore was a prominent and rather uppity blip on the far distant and unimportant horizon as far the the League was concerned. Even Haven's early expansions and unprovoked territory grabs where dismissed as a "hehehe! look at that little one over there, isn't its mindless little ambitious aggression cute" kind of thought.
The thing is that was an absurd attitude. Manticore had been a major, major shipping and finance nexus for centuries. It's a junction transit from a deep core world in Beowulf (which is to say it wasn't out off in the middle of nowhere; it was effectively right next door). It's pretty certain lots of League citizens have been there, and know quite well the base level of civilian tech on Manticore is as good as anywhere in the League. Meanwhile, Haven was, by far, the largest and wealthiest (even if it was spending more than it had) star nation outside the League. Heck, I think a Haven-League war would have been all but inevitable if the PRH had defeated Manticore, and surely some people in the SLN intelligence ought to be at least as paranoid as I am.
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Re: Solarian Military Catchup Attempts
Post by kzt   » Thu Dec 04, 2014 6:18 pm

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drothgery wrote:Heck, I think a Haven-League war would have been all but inevitable if the PRH had defeated Manticore, and surely some people in the SLN intelligence ought to be at least as paranoid as I am.

Not when the director of personnel was an MA agent....
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Re: Solarian Military Catchup Attempts
Post by stewart   » Thu Dec 04, 2014 11:47 pm

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Armed Neo-Bob wrote:I don't recall any time in history when a devolution into general warfare left anyone around who was "reasonable" -- more likely, it will be just another, different group of idiots.

Rob


-------------------------

At the beginning of WWII, Stalin "eliminated" his senior General Staff when the Germans violated the secret agreements in their Pacts; Pierre and St. Just did the same with gusto at the start of the first war.
We have already seen 2 or 3 evidences of the SLN chain of command beaching anyone who questions SLN capabilities.

The current crop of "reasonable" SLN officers are keeping their heads down, and will be for a good while until the senior leadership is wholesale changed.

At that point it will be too late for the SL as a current whole.
The current "reasonable" SLN officers WILL be a major asset for the revised (smaller) League.

-- Stewart
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Re: Solarian Military Catchup Attempts
Post by Draken   » Fri Dec 05, 2014 3:09 am

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drothgery wrote:
Dafmeister wrote:The debates aren't as public as you might think, a lot of the detail would be concealed even from members of Parliament. For example, the first Medusa-class ships were listed in the Naval Estimates as a new flight of the Gryphon-class to preserve security around the SD(P)s and Ghost Rider.
I'm mostly talking about the period between the first and second war here. When Hamish Alexander and Honor Harrington were the most important members of the opposition in the Manticoran House of Lords on the Naval Affairs committee.

Make that session secret or not invite any newsies.
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Re: Solarian Military Catchup Attempts
Post by lyonheart   » Fri Dec 05, 2014 8:16 am

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Hi Valen123456,

We don't know the full depth of MAlign penetration, but some centuries of effort have paid off, and promoting the incompetent for generations has born its fruit.

We had this discussion regarding this hole in intel back at the bar several years ago.

Given the natural human interest in the military where are all the various types of military hobbyists [out of 11-13 trillion in the league alone, there would be at least 11-13 billion], many ex solarian military with family and friends still in the various services, with their magazines, vids, blogs etc; who would be fascinated by the first war; the most modern fought in memory with both sides having real "walls" for once, especially its 10 year length that hints that the RMN has some tech advantages besides managing to balance an industrial base outnumbered around 8 or 10-1 by Haven.

Various posters described all sorts of ways such 'hobbyists' could get all sorts of information from many sources, not just the pre-war parliamentary naval budget debates [or the pre 2nd war debates Honor and Hamish starred in] but the sources that Jaynes purportedly uses, the newsies, company brochures, port visits etc.

I thought the arguments were more than convincing, but RFC said nope, Nada; despite human nature, not this time.

It's his universe, we have to live with it.

L


Valen123456 wrote:
drothgery wrote:
SNIPPED 4 BREVITY

To quote one Sollie character I cannot remember "How good does one Neo-Barb have to be to beat up on another batch of Neo-Barb's?" That was pretty much the extend of their thinking on that at that point. Manticore was a prominent and rather uppity blip on the far distant and unimportant horizon as far the the League was concerned. Even Haven's early expansions and unprovoked territory grabs where dismissed as a "hehehe! look at that little one over there, isn't its mindless little ambitious aggression cute" kind of thought.

Manticore and Haven just were not important to the Leagues movers and shakers, a fact that they are now (since Case Laocoon) learning to their cost, though they would never had admitted that at the time, and even now say it with clenched teeth. And the period during and after the First Havenite war was only really soured by the fact the Manticore had exercised its economic muscles and extradited the policy against tech transfers to Haven at the time. But that slap in the face was still not considered important since the Mandarins would much rather keep everything "business as usual", and trying to use some of the more underhanded methods normally used by OFS in the Protectorates would not have worked on a system like Manticore which was too strong and well connected to be absorbed quietly.

Manticore and others would also never have actually done anything to directly provoke the League if it were not for the Mesan Alignment starting to stir up the pot, with them as the ideal target for the Leagues key opponent. Until then as far as the League and its military were concerned they were free to ignore it. Their own little in-house power-games and political/financial maneuvers were more important to them at the time.

Now as we all know ... that's bitten/biting them very hard!
Any snippet or post from RFC is good if not great!
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Re: Solarian Military Catchup Attempts
Post by Dafmeister   » Fri Dec 05, 2014 8:51 am

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drothgery wrote:The thing is that was an absurd attitude. Manticore had been a major, major shipping and finance nexus for centuries. It's a junction transit from a deep core world in Beowulf (which is to say it wasn't out off in the middle of nowhere; it was effectively right next door). It's pretty certain lots of League citizens have been there, and know quite well the base level of civilian tech on Manticore is as good as anywhere in the League. Meanwhile, Haven was, by far, the largest and wealthiest (even if it was spending more than it had) star nation outside the League. Heck, I think a Haven-League war would have been all but inevitable if the PRH had defeated Manticore, and surely some people in the SLN intelligence ought to be at least as paranoid as I am.


You're underestimating the sheer size of the League. Yes, Manticore was a major financial centre and Haven was the biggest non-League state we know of. However, compared to the League both are tiny - comparing Manticore to the League is like comparing a prosperous Iron Age trading city to the Roman Empire.
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Re: Solarian Military Catchup Attempts
Post by drothgery   » Fri Dec 05, 2014 4:12 pm

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Dafmeister wrote:You're underestimating the sheer size of the League. Yes, Manticore was a major financial centre and Haven was the biggest non-League state we know of. However, compared to the League both are tiny - comparing Manticore to the League is like comparing a prosperous Iron Age trading city to the Roman Empire.
I think you're underestimating how big the PRH was (and RFC has said straight out that the PRH was the biggest non-League polity by a large margin). The PRH at its peak claimed over 400 systems. The League has about 2000 full members. Those numbers are not directly comparable (many of the systems the PRH claimed were empty, and many that were occupied were very marginal), but it's still roughly comparable to the relative sizes of, say, the UK vs the US today. The present-day Republic of Haven is somewhat smaller (it only claims ~150 systems), but is still by far the biggest non-League entity out there.

And you're forgetting that most Solarians think of themselves as citizens of Sol or Beowulf or whatever first, not the League... and Manticore's economic power is certainly well known to be comparable to Sol or Beowulf (and considerably greater than most League members).
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