The Grand Alliance Grand Attack

For some reason it doesn't appear the SEM has chosen to try to seize a fortified WHJ. This may be because there are none, or because they have chosen to not try to seize a fortified WHJ. I would tend to doubt that the only people in the entire universe who fortify the WHJ is the SEM.

Jonathan_S wrote:
That's why I was talking about strategic / political reasons; not simple distance. Yes that terminus is an easy hyper flight away, but that doesn't mean they might not have a good reason to temporarily leave it alone.

Here are a few (some already mentioned in this thread)
1) Seizing a terminus of a League member is an extra level of provocation they wanted to hold off on
2) Viewed Visagoth as a potential friendly, likely to split from the League and didn't want to screw that up
3) Wanted to avoid excessively panicking Mesa until somebody (IAN in the original plan) can drop by and search for the MAlign.

Zakharra wrote: Stupid quote limit.....

1. Not buying that. They are already pissing off the SL systems the wormhole terminals are in by seizing control of the junction. Visigoth isn't anymore important than any other SL system. The SEM policy seems to be to seize the wormhole itself and leave the system alone. So taking the junction wouldn't anger Visigoth anymore than any other system that has a junction in it.

Zakharra, the systems seized in ART were NOT member systems of the League--they are independents who serve the logistics network. Manticore reduces the number of future enemies by limiting attacks to federal agencies like OFS and the SLN; the economic hardships are going to get blamedeventually, on the Mandarins. Even if only as scapegoats. The GA will make as much as they can over the fact that they are at war with the League, not the individual systems; it will encourage defections.

Zakharra wrote: 2. Not buying that one either. The RMN took control of several wormholes of systems that were kind of friendly to them and from ones that weren't (officially friendly, the leaders dislikes what Manticore did). ART makes mention of that. Some of the systems (Idaho was one I believe) was reasonably friendly to the SEM, but its wormhole was still removed from their control for the specific purpose of removing SL commercial traffic from using it. Visigoth is a member of the SL as far as I remember so it should come under the same conditions of the rest of the wormholes being taken.

Do you think the systems that were known to Kolokoltzov as considering their own secession referendums, systems near to Beowulf, would not be communicating with Beowulf?

Whether the junction at Visigoth has any economic value depends on where its other termini go--which we, as readers, still don't know.

And no, Idaho is a member of the Manticore Alliance, and likely in the GA, albeit a minor system. Manticore did not seize it, they have been assisting with it for 20 years.

3. Not taking it when they are grabbing every wormhole elsewhere would look damned suspicious. Taking it hurts the SL economically and Mesa is going to be concerned anyways because it knows its a target no matter what. It's SDF would have been, should have been,m on high alert the moment the shooting started. Only an idiot on Mesa doesn't think they aren't a target by the SEM/GA which does enforce the genetic slavery laws.

Well, I didn't hear anything about Asgard; or Erewhon.

It won't help the League economically to have one or two pieces of the network intact if they lack the shipping to use it. Depends a lot on where it goes, besides Mesa. But this is about the politics of crafting successor states in the solarian territory--the wormhole holding systems are in the Verge or League periphery.

Rob

kzt wrote:For some reason it doesn't appear the SEM has chosen to try to seize a fortified WHJ. This may be because there are none, or because they have chosen to not try to seize a fortified WHJ. I would tend to doubt that the only people in the entire universe who fortify the WHJ is the SEM.

Since most of them are run by the League or those allied, who (before now) would have been stupid enough to attack them?

Rob

n7axw wrote:Hi Zakharra,

I wholeheartedly agree. There is not a reason to avoid seizing the wormhole at Visagoth. Suggest that they leave the League and enter into a commercial treaty with the GA. Then give them back their wormhole with the qualifier that it continue to be denied to the Sollies.

Don

Visigoth is a Beowulf colony, some people are saying. I don't know about that; but if they were one of the systems opposed to "investigating" Beowulf for "treason", and if they are already quietly talking to Beowulf, might be a reason. They may be part of the MAlign --at least their leaders-- but they are also among the most visible anti-slavery, anti-Manpower systems.

Encourage them to defect. FORCING them to defect gets you a friend who will look for a way to stab you later.

Rob

Armed Neo-Bob wrote:Whether the junction at Visigoth has any economic value depends on where its other termini go--which we, as readers, still don't know.

http://honorverse.wikia.com/wiki/Visigo ... e_Junction - referring to Torch of Freedom, makes that out as Ghatotkacha in the Gupta Sector of the Solarian League. The links from there in the wiki don't tell much of anything about where it is or is near. It's described as "a rather isolated sector of space".

So, we've got a label that amounts very nearly to knowing nothing.

And no, Idaho is a member of the Manticore Alliance, and likely in the GA, albeit a minor system. Manticore did not seize it, they have been assisting with it for 20 years.

3. Not taking it when they are grabbing every wormhole elsewhere would look damned suspicious. Taking it hurts the SL economically and Mesa is going to be concerned anyways because it knows its a target no matter what. It's SDF would have been, should have been,m on high alert the moment the shooting started. Only an idiot on Mesa doesn't think they aren't a target by the SEM/GA which does enforce the genetic slavery laws.

Well, I didn't hear anything about Asgard; or Erewhon.

It won't help the League economically to have one or two pieces of the network intact if they lack the shipping to use it. Depends a lot on where it goes, besides Mesa. But this is about the politics of crafting successor states in the solarian territory--the wormhole holding systems are in the Verge or League periphery.

Rob

Asgard can be left alone - it's not helpful to Solarian shipping without Manticore, and marginally then. Erewhon could be critical to Solarian shipping, but I imagine Erewhon can be counted on at this point to decline to have SLN forces charging through, and smaller scale stuff is livable without irking Erewhon (again).

So not hearing anything about them is independently plausible.

Armed Neo-Bob wrote:Since most of them are run by the League or those allied, who (before now) would have been stupid enough to attack them?
Rob

That's why nobody in the league has a large modern SDF?

Armed Neo-Bob wrote:

Jonathan_S wrote:
That's why I was talking about strategic / political reasons; not simple distance. Yes that terminus is an easy hyper flight away, but that doesn't mean they might not have a good reason to temporarily leave it alone.

Here are a few (some already mentioned in this thread)
1) Seizing a terminus of a League member is an extra level of provocation they wanted to hold off on
2) Viewed Visagoth as a potential friendly, likely to split from the League and didn't want to screw that up
3) Wanted to avoid excessively panicking Mesa until somebody (IAN in the original plan) can drop by and search for the MAlign.

Zakharra wrote: Stupid quote limit.....

1. Not buying that. They are already pissing off the SL systems the wormhole terminals are in by seizing control of the junction. Visigoth isn't anymore important than any other SL system. The SEM policy seems to be to seize the wormhole itself and leave the system alone. So taking the junction wouldn't anger Visigoth anymore than any other system that has a junction in it.

Zakharra, the systems seized in ART were NOT member systems of the League--they are independents who serve the logistics network. Manticore reduces the number of future enemies by limiting attacks to federal agencies like OFS and the SLN; the economic hardships are going to get blamedeventually, on the Mandarins. Even if only as scapegoats. The GA will make as much as they can over the fact that they are at war with the League, not the individual systems; it will encourage defections.

Laccoon I and II was the seizure (I was temporary, II permanently atm) of -all- wormhole termini/unctions regardless of who owned them. Visigoth is definitely close enough to the SEM to be on the target list, since the main purpose of Laccoon II is to hurt the SL economically. Letting some wormholes remain unseized in the SL defeats that purpose

Armed Neo-Bob wrote:

Zakharra wrote: 2. Not buying that one either. The RMN took control of several wormholes of systems that were kind of friendly to them and from ones that weren't (officially friendly, the leaders dislikes what Manticore did). ART makes mention of that. Some of the systems (Idaho was one I believe) was reasonably friendly to the SEM, but its wormhole was still removed from their control for the specific purpose of removing SL commercial traffic from using it. Visigoth is a member of the SL as far as I remember so it should come under the same conditions of the rest of the wormholes being taken.

Do you think the systems that were known to Kolokoltzov as considering their own secession referendums, systems near to Beowulf, would not be communicating with Beowulf?

Whether the junction at Visigoth has any economic value depends on where its other termini go--which we, as readers, still don't know.

And no, Idaho is a member of the Manticore Alliance, and likely in the GA, albeit a minor system. Manticore did not seize it, they have been assisting with it for 20 years.

There were many systems, including at least one (and probably more) daughter colony of Beowulf's that had voted to investigate Beowulf's actions as treasonous. So just because a system is a daughter colony wouldn't be reason enough to think it is friendly.

Until the referendum was going to happen what those systems thought didn't mean anything. The RMN's plan was to take the wormholes regardless of who owned them. There was no way that the SEM could expect or plan that Beowulf would hold a referendum on secession or not.

If Visigoth has a vibrant economy, then a fair amount of traffic flows through it. So far in the Honorverse, the presence of a wormhole means a noticeable increase in economic activity and prosperity. Look at how the Talbot Cluster reacted to the Manticore Junction wormhole that was found to end up there. For most of the systems it was instant plans for a better future because of the traffic that wormhole could bring (and likely accelerated the SL's plans to assimilate the area), so to say that the wormhole wasn't a boon to Visigoth's economy is contrary to the Honorverse Economic Law.

Armed Neo-Bob wrote:

3. Not taking it when they are grabbing every wormhole elsewhere would look damned suspicious. Taking it hurts the SL economically and Mesa is going to be concerned anyways because it knows its a target no matter what. It's SDF would have been, should have been,m on high alert the moment the shooting started. Only an idiot on Mesa doesn't think they aren't a target by the SEM/GA which does enforce the genetic slavery laws.

Well, I didn't hear anything about Asgard; or Erewhon.

It won't help the League economically to have one or two pieces of the network intact if they lack the shipping to use it. Depends a lot on where it goes, besides Mesa. But this is about the politics of crafting successor states in the solarian territory--the wormhole holding systems are in the Verge or League periphery.

Rob

RFC doesn't include everyone's reaction either. He just includes the people important to the plot, otherwise his books would be monsters. Asgard and Erewhon aren't important to the story so little mention is made of them. This likely happens to a lot of the systems that would have been affected simply to keep the books flowing well. As it is, Erewhon is allied to Haven to is it tentatively already a member of the GA. If the SL tried something, they'd be tangling with the RHN. Asgard is one end of the Manticore Wormhole junction, so the RMN already has control of it. It seems to be a SEM policy to control both sides of a wormhole that leads to the Manticore system. Plus Asgerd/Asgard is outside of even the outer Verge area the SL might have been slowly assimilating.

The plan was to cripple the League economically, leaving even a few wormhole bridges intact helps it limp along however haltingly. Removing even just one end of a bridge cripples the area. So taking the Visigoth end would cripple any trade to and from Mesa and the SL that might have passed through it.

Zakharra wrote: 3. Not taking it when they are grabbing every wormhole elsewhere would look damned suspicious. ...

And casting suspicions on Visigoth would be bad, because...?

Not usurping control of a wormhole owned by a daughter colony of secessionist Beowulf that espouses many policies similar to Manticore's would make it look as if Visigoth was collaborating if not actively conspiring with the GA. A hostile reaction by the Mandarins and/or SLN to the perception of 'treason' would give Visigoth a reason to turn the perception into reality.

Zakharra wrote: Laccoon I and II was the seizure (I was temporary, II permanently atm) of -all- wormhole termini/unctions regardless of who owned them. Visigoth is definitely close enough to the SEM to be on the target list, since the main purpose of Laccoon II is to hurt the SL economically. Letting some wormholes remain unseized in the SL defeats that purpose

Nit: Lacoon I did not involve seizing any wormholes. Lacoon II did involve seizing control of wormholes, but there is no evidence that the plan is or was to hold them permanently.

RFC doesn't include everyone's reaction either. He just includes the people important to the plot, otherwise his books would be monsters. Asgard and Erewhon aren't important to the story so little mention is made of them. This likely happens to a lot of the systems that would have been affected simply to keep the books flowing well. As it is, Erewhon is allied to Haven to is it tentatively already a member of the GA. If the SL tried something, they'd be tangling with the RHN. Asgard is one end of the Manticore Wormhole junction, so the RMN already has control of it. It seems to be a SEM policy to control both sides of a wormhole that leads to the Manticore system. Plus Asgerd/Asgard is outside of even the outer Verge area the SL might have been slowly assimilating.

Nit: Erewhon has a defensive treaty with Haven, in which either party would help defend the other if it were directly attacked. That does not automatically make Erewhon a party to any other treaty that Haven makes, and it does not include defending Haven when Haven voluntarily joins a war in which Haven had not been a target. If Erewhon wants to join the Grand Alliance, they will have to sign their own treaty with Manticore. Erewhon's treaty with Haven does not in any way force Erewhon to refuse passage to Solarian naval ships, and Erewhon would be hard-pressed to find any excuse to refuse passage, unless it openly chose sides.

This doesn't directly alter your other points, but I wanted to correct these things before they became part of the underlying assumptions.

I can understand the logic behind leaving the Visigoth wormhole alone. But and I don't agree with it. There is no textev to support it; indeed what textev we do have implies the contrary.

Unless persuaded by textev to the contrary, my own assumption will be that Manticore controls both sides of that wormhole...

for what that's worth... which is just barely short of nothing.

Don