The Grand Alliance Grand Attack

Jonathan_S wrote:

Zakharra wrote:Considerinf that Lacoon II was the military siezure of all wormhole terminus and junctions in known space, especially the ones on the north side of the SL (and it is only 60 light years from Beowulf), for the Visagoth wormhole to not be in GA hands would be very unusual.

If I recall correctly they used the qualifier "within reach". It's possible for strategic / political reasons the Visagoth wormhole was considered out of reach at the time the rest of the termini were seized.

Yep, here's the quote.

Mission of Honor: Chapter 26 wrote:that was the first phase of Lacoön. The second phase included active commerce raiding and the extension of de facto Manticoran control to every wormhole nexus within its reach, regardless of who that nexus nominally belonged to.

Thanks for the quote, that was what I was trying to remember in my reply to him. Although, we are all still waiting for the "active commerce raiding."

Rob

Rob

Jonathan_S wrote:

Zakharra wrote:Considerinf that Lacoon II was the military siezure of all wormhole terminus and junctions in known space, especially the ones on the north side of the SL (and it is only 60 light years from Beowulf), for the Visagoth wormhole to not be in GA hands would be very unusual.

If I recall correctly they used the qualifier "within reach". It's possible for strategic / political reasons the Visagoth wormhole was considered out of reach at the time the rest of the termini were seized.

It's possible. But they were willing to step pretty firmly on Solarian toes with Laocoon II. They may not have been eager to step on the toes of certain (suspected to be friendly) system governments - that's where I'd wonder that Visigoth may have been left alone.

Sheer distance isn't likely to have protected them - they're near Beowulf and Mesa is tolerably close to Lynx (even assuming there are no wormholes cutting that trip shorter), so getting at either end of that bridge is easy enough.

I remain puzzled that we didn't read anything about Laocoon touching or not touching either end of that connection. Even if they didn't want to prod Visigoth with a seizure of its terminus, prodding Mesa by seizing its end seems to be militarily easy enough and politically beyond tempting.

Jonathan_S wrote:

Zakharra wrote:Considerinf that Lacoon II was the military siezure of all wormhole terminus and junctions in known space, especially the ones on the north side of the SL (and it is only 60 light years from Beowulf), for the Visagoth wormhole to not be in GA hands would be very unusual.

If I recall correctly they used the qualifier "within reach". It's possible for strategic / political reasons the Visagoth wormhole was considered out of reach at the time the rest of the termini were seized.

Yep, here's the quote.

Mission of Honor: Chapter 26 wrote:that was the first phase of Lacoön. The second phase included active commerce raiding and the extension of de facto Manticoran control to every wormhole nexus within its reach, regardless of who that nexus nominally belonged to.

Within reach? That is completely within reach. The SEM was seizing wormholes hundreds of light years from Manticore. Visagoth is only 60 light years from Beowulf and Manticore controls that wormhole. So with flight time added in, Visagoth is only 60 light years from Manticore. That's completely within distance, especially since the objective of Lacoon II is to economically disrupt the SLs economy, no matter who system the wormholes are in. In ART the SEM was more than willing to trod all over the toes (albeit in a somewhat polite way) of systems that had wormhole junctions no matter how much the system government protested. Visagoth shouldn't be any different. So the SEM not being in control of the Visagoth wormhole when its so close to Beowulf would be extremely odd.

Zakharra wrote:

Jonathan_S wrote:If I recall correctly they used the qualifier "within reach". It's possible for strategic / political reasons the Visagoth wormhole was considered out of reach at the time the rest of the termini were seized.

Within reach? That is completely within reach. The SEM was seizing wormholes hundreds of light years from Manticore. Visagoth is only 60 light years from Beowulf and Manticore controls that wormhole. So with flight time added in, Visagoth is only 60 light years from Manticore. That's completely within distance, especially since the objective of Lacoon II is to economically disrupt the SLs economy, no matter who system the wormholes are in. In ART the SEM was more than willing to trod all over the toes (albeit in a somewhat polite way) of systems that had wormhole junctions no matter how much the system government protested. Visagoth shouldn't be any different. So the SEM not being in control of the Visagoth wormhole when its so close to Beowulf would be extremely odd.

That's why I was talking about strategic / political reasons; not simple distance. Yes that terminus is an easy hyper flight away, but that doesn't mean they might not have a good reason to temporarily leave it alone.

Here are a few (some already mentioned in this thread)
1) Seizing a terminus of a League member is an extra level of provocation they wanted to hold off on
2) Viewed Visagoth as a potential friendly, likely to split from the League and didn't want to screw that up
3) Wanted to avoid excessively panicking Mesa until somebody (IAN in the original plan) can drop by and search for the MAlign.

Nice analysis, Jonathan; just a couple of points I'll make below.

Jonathan_S wrote:That's why I was talking about strategic / political reasons; not simple distance. Yes that terminus is an easy hyper flight away, but that doesn't mean they might not have a good reason to temporarily leave it alone.

Here are a few (some already mentioned in this thread):

1) Seizing a terminus of a League member is an extra level of provocation they wanted to hold off on.

Well, blowing up or capturing 500 SD's, wrecking trade and economies across the SL by withdrawing their ships, and refusing to let the SL use their wormholes...I think that has probably been provocation enough (to SL eyes) so taking over SL member wormholes is just one more in what is becoming a large pile...

2) Viewed Visagoth as a potential friendly, likely to split from the League and didn't want to screw that up

Yeah, I can see that, especially if Beowulf is considered a 'friend' and has perhaps already talked to the Visigoth leadership (unaware that they are really part of the MAlignment....)

3) Wanted to avoid excessively panicking Mesa until somebody (IAN in the original plan) can drop by and search for the MAlign.

Ooh, I had not considered that, it would have made Mesa very nervous now, wouldn't it? And we would have heard about it in CoG, you would think.

So looks like Mike has a long road home to Talbott. Unless some type of deal is worked out with the Visigothers...

Interesting.

--snip--

Jonathan_S wrote:That's why I was talking about strategic / political reasons; not simple distance. Yes that terminus is an easy hyper flight away, but that doesn't mean they might not have a good reason to temporarily leave it alone....

-- end snip--

Agreed. Letting the RMN slap Admiral Tsang upside the face to defend "Manticoran and Beowulfan shared property", and broadcasting that they'd saved a bunch of SLN spacers by doing so is great PR to the Core worlds and even the rest of the SLN at large.

Strategically, going after the Visigoth from Beowulf, not so much, whether or not V. is ally or enemy at this point not even being known.

It strikes me as a 'really bad idea', because -- at least until Beowulf has withdrawn from the League fully -- it would really put Beowulf in a position of committing a traitorous act, aka an excuse grounds for the Mandarins to make that an excuse to try and use a big chunk of Battle Fleet to pound Beowulf's SDF forces flat before the referendum even occurs. [though how successful that attempt would be is up for grabs...]

One more question so I don't have to use a separate post... I thought "active commerce raiding" went out the window due to the Yawata Strike (?)...

Hutch wrote:Nice analysis, Jonathan; just a couple of points I'll make below.

Jonathan_S wrote:That's why I was talking about strategic / political reasons; not simple distance. Yes that terminus is an easy hyper flight away, but that doesn't mean they might not have a good reason to temporarily leave it alone.

Here are a few (some already mentioned in this thread):

1) Seizing a terminus of a League member is an extra level of provocation they wanted to hold off on.

Well, blowing up or capturing 500 SD's, wrecking trade and economies across the SL by withdrawing their ships, and refusing to let the SL use their wormholes...I think that has probably been provocation enough (to SL eyes) so taking over SL member wormholes is just one more in what is becoming a large pile...

2) Viewed Visagoth as a potential friendly, likely to split from the League and didn't want to screw that up

Yeah, I can see that, especially if Beowulf is considered a 'friend' and has perhaps already talked to the Visigoth leadership (unaware that they are really part of the MAlignment....)

3) Wanted to avoid excessively panicking Mesa until somebody (IAN in the original plan) can drop by and search for the MAlign.

Ooh, I had not considered that, it would have made Mesa very nervous now, wouldn't it? And we would have heard about it in CoG, you would think.

So looks like Mike has a long road home to Talbott. Unless some type of deal is worked out with the Visigothers...

Interesting.

Well she sent back word that she was going to take Mesa. If the GA had been holding off on Visagoth just for reason #3 (avoid panicking Mesa) then once they get the announcement that Mike's going to move they're free to seize the other end of the Mesa - Visagoth wormhole.

So Mike might very well get a courier soon-ish letting her know that the quick way home is secured and usable

Jonathan_S wrote:Well she sent back word that she was going to take Mesa. If the GA had been holding off on Visagoth just for reason #3 (avoid panicking Mesa) then once they get the announcement that Mike's going to move they're free to seize the other end of the Mesa - Visigoth wormhole....

Now that makes alot of sense. As soon as Henke talks with the "Torch people on the ground" and gets wind of the MA bugging out, that's exactly the direction she oughta send ships. While I think the textev implication is that the MA bugged out in multiple directions, you'd have to think that the MA could get a pretty good count of people out through that "neck of the woods" without necessarily attracting much attention, and that it would be a good source of tracking information...

Jonathan_S wrote:If I recall correctly they used the qualifier "within reach". It's possible for strategic / political reasons the Visagoth wormhole was considered out of reach at the time the rest of the termini were seized.

Jonathan_S wrote:

Zakharra wrote:
Within reach? That is completely within reach. The SEM was seizing wormholes hundreds of light years from Manticore. Visagoth is only 60 light years from Beowulf and Manticore controls that wormhole. So with flight time added in, Visagoth is only 60 light years from Manticore. That's completely within distance, especially since the objective of Lacoon II is to economically disrupt the SLs economy, no matter who system the wormholes are in. In ART the SEM was more than willing to trod all over the toes (albeit in a somewhat polite way) of systems that had wormhole junctions no matter how much the system government protested. Visagoth shouldn't be any different. So the SEM not being in control of the Visagoth wormhole when its so close to Beowulf would be extremely odd.

That's why I was talking about strategic / political reasons; not simple distance. Yes that terminus is an easy hyper flight away, but that doesn't mean they might not have a good reason to temporarily leave it alone.

Here are a few (some already mentioned in this thread)
1) Seizing a terminus of a League member is an extra level of provocation they wanted to hold off on
2) Viewed Visagoth as a potential friendly, likely to split from the League and didn't want to screw that up
3) Wanted to avoid excessively panicking Mesa until somebody (IAN in the original plan) can drop by and search for the MAlign.

Stupid quote limit.....

1. Not buying that. They are already pissing off the SL systems the wormhole terminals are in by seizing control of the junction. Visigoth isn't anymore important than any other SL system. The SEM policy seems to be to seize the wormhole itself and leave the system alone. So taking the junction wouldn't anger Visigoth anymore than any other system that has a junction in it.

2. Not buying that one either. The RMN took control of several wormholes of systems that were kind of friendly to them and from ones that weren't (officially friendly, the leaders dislikes what Manticore did). ART makes mention of that. Some of the systems (Idaho was one I believe) was reasonably friendly to the SEM, but its wormhole was still removed from their control for the specific purpose of removing SL commercial traffic from using it. Visigoth is a member of the SL as far as I remember so it should come under the same conditions of the rest of the wormholes being taken.

3. Not taking it when they are grabbing every wormhole elsewhere would look damned suspicious. Taking it hurts the SL economically and Mesa is going to be concerned anyways because it knows its a target no matter what. It's SDF would have been, should have been,m on high alert the moment the shooting started. Only an idiot on Mesa doesn't think they aren't a target by the SEM/GA which does enforce the genetic slavery laws.

Hi Zakharra,

I wholeheartedly agree. There is not a reason to avoid seizing the wormhole at Visagoth. Suggest that they leave the League and enter into a commercial treaty with the GA. Then give them back their wormhole with the qualifier that it continue to be denied to the Sollies.

Don