Honorverse ramblings and musings

stewart wrote:There ARE other sectors that will willingly break away. It will likely start with the Beowulf colony systems and those that voted with Beowulf, and the Verge sectors (like Maya) that have managed to prepare while keeping their SL central government masters in the dark.

-- Stewart

The response(s) to Beowulf's Secession vote will go a long way towards determining whether the Solarian League is a "sleeping giant" or a "herd of cats." Personally, I expect a "herd of cats" reaction.

Weird Harold wrote:

stewart wrote:There ARE other sectors that will willingly break away. It will likely start with the Beowulf colony systems and those that voted with Beowulf, and the Verge sectors (like Maya) that have managed to prepare while keeping their SL central government masters in the dark.

-- Stewart

The response(s) to Beowulf's Secession vote will go a long way towards determining whether the Solarian League is a "sleeping giant" or a "herd of cats." Personally, I expect a "herd of cats" reaction.

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Keeping in mind that some of those break-away sectors might also be MA / Renaissance Factor systems/sectors as well.
Only time (and MWW/RFC) will tell and RFC's stock answer is tum-te-tum-tum....

-- Stewart

crewdude48 wrote:I see one small problem with your analysis. Very few people consider themselves "Solarians." The vast vast majority of people who live in the SL consider themselves Beowulfers or Visigoths or citizens of what ever planet they are from. There is no "patriotic pride, duty and a sense of the 'Red, White and Blue'" For most people in the Honorverse, watching the League fall would be analagus to most of us watching the United Nations or NATO fall apart. The League has exactly as much influence on a Solly's life as the UN has on most Terran's today. Not much.

Why would somebody willingly stand up to fight and die for something that they don't consider themselves a part of? Why would a system government be willing to give infinitely more money than they give now to shore up a treaty organization?
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Or like the League of Nations effectively going into abeyance in the run up to World War II. Nobody seemed to be heartbroken over that. And only had te embarasment of being passively ineffective. Unlike the SL witch can't stop shooting itself in to foot militarily.

They had in effect an invincible fleet of muzzle-loading ironclads and keep picking fights, out on the frontiers, with steel pre-dreadnoughts. 20-30 years earlier and that navy would have been an unstoppable tide. But then they coasted. (I'd have said pre-dreds picking fights with dreadnaughts, but that understates the disparity) but now it's kind of an embarasment; at least if they have to go back and explain why the member systems should give up money and a measure of autonomy to find a new fleet.

I'm reminded of the fall of Rome. That didn't happen in a day. In fact the decline and fall took hundreds of years. Corruption and decay set in as the decline set in expressed in a multitude of ways. Eventually the greatness was hollowed out and the thing died.

When it happened, people couldn't believe it. It couldn't happen. Rome was eternal. Yet it did. Today what is left is memory, preserved upon the pages of history books.

Sound like anything we've been reading and thinking about lately?

Don

stewart wrote:Keeping in mind that some of those break-away sectors might also be MA / Renaissance Factor systems/sectors as well.

There are twelve Rennaisance Factor systems, plus Darius. I don't recall for certain whether Mesa is included, but I think not.

That means there are at least eleven systems primed for immediate secession once Beowulf's secession passes and the SLN attacks. That should start the rats heading for the gunwales and anchor ropes.

Weird Harold wrote:

stewart wrote:Keeping in mind that some of those break-away sectors might also be MA / Renaissance Factor systems/sectors as well.

There are twelve Rennaisance Factor systems, plus Darius. I don't recall for certain whether Mesa is included, but I think not.

That means there are at least eleven systems primed for immediate secession once Beowulf's secession passes and the SLN attacks. That should start the rats heading for the gunwales and anchor ropes.

Don't count Darius as that is the MAlign secret colony. Mesa is not included in the 12 RF systems, as most, if not all, of the RF systems were anti-slavery.

The question of how long it will take the SL to fall apart is a good one, but I agree that until the books come out, we will get tum te tum tum from RFC.

Kizarvexis wrote:Don't count Darius as that is the MAlign secret colony. Mesa is not included in the 12 RF systems, ...

I wasn't counting Darius and, on further consideration, wouldn't have counted Mesa even if it was part of the RF -- Mesa isn't a league member.

Weird Harold wrote:The response(s) to Beowulf's Secession vote will go a long way towards determining whether the Solarian League is a "sleeping giant" or a "herd of cats." Personally, I expect a "herd of cats" reaction.

I figure "giant herd of sleeping cats". When it wakes up, there will be a whole lot of yowling, hissing, and scattering.

Weird Harold wrote:

stewart wrote:Keeping in mind that some of those break-away sectors might also be MA / Renaissance Factor systems/sectors as well.

There are twelve Rennaisance Factor systems, plus Darius. I don't recall for certain whether Mesa is included, but I think not.

That means there are at least eleven systems primed for immediate secession once Beowulf's secession passes and the SLN attacks. That should start the rats heading for the gunwales and anchor ropes.

Yes and no, I think... Mannerheim is supposed to be the biggest "outside of Darius" space naval force, and the RMN would wipe them in a single battle. If I'm reading the tea leaves right, Darius was likely intended to supply the arsenal for all of the RF entities, plus the invasion forces to take out whomever in the Haven Sector. They're the tiger (not a paper tiger) but they can't show up too far ahead of time or they turn into an enemy conquistador force in the minds of other SL systems themselves.

If that is true, then as long as there's no imminent battles, most SL systems would probably be more politically likely to act more like "rats hiding in the gunwales" than heading off ship.

Yes / no / what think ye?

crewdude48 wrote:I see one small problem with your analysis. Very few people consider themselves "Solarians." The vast vast majority of people who live in the SL consider themselves Beowulfers or Visigoths or citizens of what ever planet they are from. There is no "patriotic pride, duty and a sense of the 'Red, White and Blue'" For most people in the Honorverse, watching the League fall would be analagus to most of us watching the United Nations or NATO fall apart. The League has exactly as much influence on a Solly's life as the UN has on most Terran's today. Not much.

Why would somebody willingly stand up to fight and die for something that they don't consider themselves a part of? Why would a system government be willing to give infinitely more money than they give now to shore up a treaty organization?

I suspect that the reason the SLN is able to recruit the numbers of people it has is not because of any sence of "League pride," but because of the benefits it offers (something akin to the GI Bill, steady pay, etc.) and the fact that it is probably one of the safest jobs in explored space.

In the first two years of the US war in Iraq, approximately 5,500 US troops deserted, a more than 5000% increase over the two years prior to the start of the war. And this is in a military that constantly has small scale conflicts and still has veterans alive from WWII, Korea, Vietnam, and The Gulf War. People don't join the SLN to fight, they join it for the job. How many SLN veterans are alive that have had a friend die in combat? Once the spacers realize they might die, they will not fight.

Thanks for the cross examination.

I suppose that I'm surprised that that is all that is wrong with my analysis. I do note that you were kind enough to say that it is a "small" thing.

I'm aware that most League member states want to "secede from the union." After all, that, in no small part, is what Alexander-Harrington is counting on. However, I cannot believe that there are not any member states out of the very huge League that aren't loyal. Remember, the League is huge. In that vastness, there should be a "core" of loyal member states. It is this core in which I refer. And as large as the League is, a small core would still represent a large enough sample against the upstart neobarbs and enough to start the impetus rolling. It is what I was thinking anyways. If I am wrong, then what the hell was all of the initial worry from Harrington&Co? And more importantly, how did ONI miss such an important fact? In fact, how is it that the entire Honorverse isn't aware of such dissention? It doesn't seem realistic that that sort of hatred within your own constituents could remain hidden. Now I'm aware of Frontier Security's heavy hand in controlling that, and the fear factor that controlled many. But there aren't any loyal enough core worlds?

If there isn't, then yet again Mr. Weber has miswritten, misrepresented and misled.

I understand all of your arguments, and if I had to bet, I'd bet on you all in this case, because of all of my unread star systems. But since there's no money involved, I'll stick to my guns just to make it interesting, and the fact that I think you're all wrong. And I think, in the first few chapters of the upcoming book we'll see who is right. And I'm going to accept that I am wrong should I be. But if I'm right, I may as well practice now "Told you so told you so told you so ..."

Aside:
By the way. Does any of the unread books on my list contain Earth's ugly years? Pre-diaspora I suppose? That would make for an interesting meat&pot read.

Edit:
Secede in place of succeed.

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