Of Mike and Mesa

I wonder what the fall out might be for the Solarian League when pleas for intervention by high Mesan Officials NOT part of the inner onion go unanswered? The top mandarins HAVE to have some strong and meaningful response I would think. Otherwise how are they going to spin this and not look like they have given up any sort of meaningful foreign policy with any bite? Such an event like this might force their hand sooner than they wanted whether they like the idea or not.

Hutch wrote:Well, the last thread I could find dealing with this petered out about 15 months ago, so I guess opening a new one won't ruffle any feathers (not that I am highly concerned on that score).

Plus the last thread was pre-Cauldron of Ghosts, so we know a lot more about Houdini and conditions in Mesa.

There was a fair amount of speculation, just not in threads labeled as such.

Hutch wrote:A couple of points to kick off, then we'll see where the thread goes from there (maybe in the crapper, you never know, but hopefully with some energetic discussions).

Point the First: Where's Mikes ships? We know from textev in Shadows of Freedom that she had 28 SD's and/or CLACs with her at Meyers and that her intention was to take them all (along with Oversteengen's BC's) to Mesa.

We also know from textev in Cauldron of Ghosts that:

The conference room door flew open, and heads snapped around at the unceremonious, unexpected, and unacceptable interruption.
“What’s the mean—” Brandon Ward began thunderously.
“I’m sorry, Sir!” his senior aide cut him off. “I’m sorry, but…but this is—”
She slithered to a stop, as if groping for words, and Ward’s frown turned even darker.
“What the hell are you talking about, Andrea?!” he snapped.
“Sir, Perimeter Tracking just reported a hyper footprint. A big hyper footprint—at least a dozen ships-of-the-wall!"

Bold and italics mine. Now an accurate count might be too much to ask, but missing by 250%? Mesa's tracking has to be better than that, given the enemies it has. So where's the rest of them?

My guess is that they are currently footprinting close to the Mesa-Visgoth wormhole and taking the necessary actions to close that wormhole (and maybe send a dispatch boat through to Beowulf-Manticore telling them they have arrived in Mesa). It is the quickest way of getting the news home (about a week, IIRC). Other guesses are welcome--ignored by me, but welcome....

Well, yes. That was pretty much the consensus (or at least my consensus ) As long as Mike is taking Mesa, she has a lot of reasons to block the Mesa end of the hyper bridge to Solarian League traffic. The primary reason is called Lacoon II. A second reason is cutting off the Solarian transstellars and Manpower.

Hutch wrote:Point the Second: What of the Mesan Navy? We know from various textev that it is not a very large force (the largest ship we've seen is a BC) and not well-considered as a well-run or formidable SDF. And Mike Henke is leading the most capable warships (that anyone knows of right at this moment) ever built, so they don't stand a chance opposing her...

Still and yet, they are citizens of Mesa, it is their homeworld, and I suppose for many of them they do love it, and they are seeing what can only be considered an invading (and conquering) force approaching--combined with the reports from the actions of Cauldron of Ghosts, it wouldn't be surprising if the MSN (and many Mesans, for that part), see this as a coordinated attack on their system by the dastardly Manties, aided and abetted by the Ballroom planet Torch and those unmitigated bastards of Beowulf.

So will they fight--and die--to the last ship or will sanity rule and they surrender/scuttle their ships as happened in Mobius?

Truth to tell, I have an opinion on it, but I'll leave it for later.

From the reaction on the ground, I'd say they're going to surrender.

Hutch wrote:Interesting times...

Hutch wrote:Point the First: Where's Mikes ships? We know from textev in Shadows of Freedom that she had 28 SD's and/or CLACs with her at Meyers and that her intention was to take them all (along with Oversteengen's BC's) to Mesa.

We also know from textev in Cauldron of Ghosts that:

The conference room door flew open, and heads snapped around at the unceremonious, unexpected, and unacceptable interruption.
“What’s the mean—” Brandon Ward began thunderously.
“I’m sorry, Sir!” his senior aide cut him off. “I’m sorry, but…but this is—”
She slithered to a stop, as if groping for words, and Ward’s frown turned even darker.
“What the hell are you talking about, Andrea?!” he snapped.
“Sir, Perimeter Tracking just reported a hyper footprint. A big hyper footprint—at least a dozen ships-of-the-wall!"

Bold and italics mine. Now an accurate count might be too much to ask, but missing by 250%? Mesa's tracking has to be better than that, given the enemies it has. So where's the rest of them?

Weird Harold wrote:Still sitting in Hyperspace waiting for a "Paul Revere" to give them coordinates for dropping out in the path of potential escapees.

That's the tactic she used at Meyers, and should work equally well at Mesa.

Um, no. There was a reason she did that at Meyers: to bottle up the system so nobody would know about it for a while, and also to catch fleeing higher-ups. That worked because there were very few ships in the system.

That's not possible on Mesa for two reasons. First, Mesa has a lot more ships in orbit than Admiral Henke has ships to catch them, and second, there's no way to bottle up the wormhole terminus. If she tries, someone on Visigoth is going to notice, and notice quickly.

Besides, the official government has nowhere to flee, while the MAlign has been gone for three weeks, although she has no way to know that yet.

npadln wrote:I wonder what the fall out might be for the Solarian League when pleas for intervention by high Mesan Officials NOT part of the inner onion go unanswered? The top mandarins HAVE to have some strong and meaningful response I would think. Otherwise how are they going to spin this and not look like they have given up any sort of meaningful foreign policy with any bite? Such an event like this might force their hand sooner than they wanted whether they like the idea or not.

Mesa is not an SL member, and it's not well liked by the SL populace. There's a comment, I think by Detweiller in Shadow of Freedom, that he doesn't expect the Mandarins to come to the rescue.

They're going to get a lot more pressure from SL transstellars that just got access to their cash cows in the Madras sector cut off. They're also going to be getting pressure from the headless body of Manpower which will be flailing around.

They've also got the Beowulf secession to deal with.

I see lots of fun and games, but nothing that resembles a coherent strategy.

What I'm wondering is how long it's going to take Admiral Whatsisname to realize that the commerce raiding strategy removes ships he needs to keep the lid on the Protectorates.

JohnRoth wrote:

npadln wrote:I wonder what the fall out might be for the Solarian League when pleas for intervention by high Mesan Officials NOT part of the inner onion go unanswered? The top mandarins HAVE to have some strong and meaningful response I would think. Otherwise how are they going to spin this and not look like they have given up any sort of meaningful foreign policy with any bite? Such an event like this might force their hand sooner than they wanted whether they like the idea or not.

Mesa is not an SL member, and it's not well liked by the SL populace. There's a comment, I think by Detweiller in Shadow of Freedom, that he doesn't expect the Mandarins to come to the rescue.

They're going to get a lot more pressure from SL transstellars that just got access to their cash cows in the Madras sector cut off. They're also going to be getting pressure from the headless body of Manpower which will be flailing around.

They've also got the Beowulf secession to deal with.

I see lots of fun and games, but nothing that resembles a coherent strategy.

What I'm wondering is how long it's going to take Admiral Whatsisname to realize that the commerce raiding strategy removes ships he needs to keep the lid on the Protectorates.

I realize they aren't part of the SL but after all the milking of the SL over the Green Pines massacre and the accompanying media and public fallout over that and now add a seemingly identical outcome with Manticore then conveniently showing up on the scene (surprise, surprise), it could seem that Manticore is sending a message to the rest of the galaxy that they are the new big dog and they will do what ever they want what ever suits their purposes. Now Mesa may not be part of the SL but that isn't to say they are some irrelevant back water world out on the verge and there are legitimate relationships between them. If just for the precedence this action is setting don't you think the Mandarins cannot just stay silent and inactive? Remember, Manticore is supposed to represent the barbarian hordes. Who would be next, rhetorically speaking?

npadln wrote:I wonder what the fall out might be for the Solarian League when pleas for intervention by high Mesan Officials NOT part of the inner onion go unanswered? The top mandarins HAVE to have some strong and meaningful response I would think. Otherwise how are they going to spin this and not look like they have given up any sort of meaningful foreign policy with any bite? Such an event like this might force their hand sooner than they wanted whether they like the idea or not.

JohnRoth wrote:Mesa is not an SL member, and it's not well liked by the SL populace. There's a comment, I think by Detweiller in Shadow of Freedom, that he doesn't expect the Mandarins to come to the rescue.

They're going to get a lot more pressure from SL transstellars that just got access to their cash cows in the Madras sector cut off. They're also going to be getting pressure from the headless body of Manpower which will be flailing around.

They've also got the Beowulf secession to deal with.

I see lots of fun and games, but nothing that resembles a coherent strategy.

What I'm wondering is how long it's going to take Admiral Whatsisname to realize that the commerce raiding strategy removes ships he needs to keep the lid on the Protectorates.

npadln wrote:I realize they aren't part of the SL but after all the milking of the SL over the Green Pines massacre and the accompanying media and public fallout over that and now add a seemingly identical outcome with Manticore then conveniently showing up on the scene (surprise, surprise), it could seem that Manticore is sending a message to the rest of the galaxy that they are the new big dog and they will do what ever they want what ever suits their purposes. Now Mesa may not be part of the SL but that isn't to say they are some irrelevant back water world out on the verge and there are legitimate relationships between them. If just for the precedence this action is setting don't you think the Mandarins cannot just stay silent and inactive? Remember, Manticore is supposed to represent the barbarian hordes. Who would be next, rhetorically speaking?

The unpalatable fact they're facing is that the only possible action they could take which would change the headlong plunge to destruction of the SL would be to surrender, admit they've been lying their heads off to the public, and that half of them are on Manpower's or other transstellar's payrolls. Oh, wait, they haven't declared war. And admitting the rest might be personally ... suboptimal.

To put it another way, they've painted themselves into a corner, and none of them can paint a door on the wall they can exit through.

Does anyone have a better idea of Mike's strength than I do?

From SoF, I have it at 20 SDPs and 20 CLACs. An undetermined number of those CLACs are back in Talbot. Never mind BCs, Rolands, Sag-Cs, etc.

She was said to have come out of hyper with 28 of the wall at Myers, but the Sollies would have mistaken CLACs for SDs. That suggests 8 CLACs. At Mesa at least a dozen SDs are spotted.

The number is not definite, but the difference between what Mike had available and the smaller number suggests that it might not have been Mike at all, but perhaps the IAN.

Two things we know. One: Mike left Myers for Mesa. Two: Mesa's sensor net reports at least a dozen SDs incoming.

Soo, does anybody have anything to add or correct here, particularly in terms of numbers?

Don

Hutch wrote:

saber964 wrote: answer to point one

10th fleet probably didn't go screaming in with every thing in her OrBat from Meyers. I posted this in another forum a month or so ago.

10th Fleet OrBat
20 SD(P)
8 CLAC
16 BC

Main Body
8 SD(P)
2 CLAC
4 BC

Terminus Force
4 SD(P)
2 CLAC
2 BC

H-limit Intercept Forces x4
2 SD(P)
1 CLAC
2 BC

2 BC Pony Express attach MB

Friend saber964, except for slightly different proportions on the heavyweights (I postulate 16 SD(P) and 12 CLACs, leaving a division of SDP's at Tillerman), I have no trouble with those dispositions.

Am curious about what you mean my the Battlecruisers as "Pony Express"? Do you mean carrying messages back and forth between the terminus and the planet and the hyper limit?

I would think Mike might have brought a dispatch boat or two along with her.

IMHO as always.

The reason I sent more SD(P)'s than CLACs is CLAC's are more useful for backing up the light forces that were left behind at Montana. For the most part any of the light SLN forces out rebel thumping will likely read any CLAC as an SD. They could also send out a single CLAC if necessary. IIRC the OrBat at Montana was

TF Montana OrBat
11 CLAC 1 BatRon 1 BatDiv
1 CruRon CruDiv 96.1 and 94.2
1 DesFlot 13 DD DesRon 301

Forces deployed
Mobius
1 CLAC
1 CruDiv 94.1
1 DesRon
1 Batt Marines + 1 Batt ships Marine detachments

Yes the Ponies are for messaging over the H-wall.

saber964 wrote: The reason I sent more SD(P)'s than CLACs is CLAC's are more useful for backing up the light forces that were left behind at Montana. For the most part any of the light SLN forces out rebel thumping will likely read any CLAC as an SD. They could also send out a single CLAC if necessary. IIRC the OrBat at Montana was

TF Montana OrBat
11 CLAC 1 BatRon 1 BatDiv
1 CruRon CruDiv 96.1 and 94.2
1 DesFlot 13 DD DesRon 301

Forces deployed
Mobius
1 CLAC
1 CruDiv 94.1
1 DesRon
1 Batt Marines + 1 Batt ships Marine detachments

Yes the Ponies are for messaging over the H-wall.

saber, not arguing, but I enjoy discussing ship deployments (upon occasion RFC drives me to distraction with this... )
And friend Don (N7awx) also has a question which I'll try to answer, having recently re-read SoF.

I think Mike took 10 SD(P) and 10 CLAC's to Montana, deploying the other 10 SD(P)'s and 10 CLAC's under Bennington to Tillerman. She spoke of leaving a "division" of CLAC's at Montana, which I interpret to mean a total of 5 CLAC's, one deployed to Mobius and 4 at Montana.

So once she arrived at Tillerman, she had 20 SD(P)'s and 15 CLAC's available, and brought (that we got to see) 28 Capital ships over the wall at Meyers. Friend saber and I mildly disagree on what the classes were (YMMV), but using my estimates (it's my message, after all.. ), she'd have 16 SD(P)'s and 12 CLAC's with her at Meyers (and then Mesa) while leaving 4 SD(P)'s and 3 CLAC's at Tillerman (or re-deployed elsewhere, as their reason for being at Tillerman was because of it's proximity to Meyers Sector, IIRC).

So that's my take. Of course, RFC knows best, but that's never stopped me from speculating before...

Hutch wrote:

saber964 wrote: The reason I sent more SD(P)'s than CLACs is CLAC's are more useful for backing up the light forces that were left behind at Montana. For the most part any of the light SLN forces out rebel thumping will likely read any CLAC as an SD. They could also send out a single CLAC if necessary. IIRC the OrBat at Montana was

TF Montana OrBat
11 CLAC 1 BatRon 1 BatDiv
1 CruRon CruDiv 96.1 and 94.2
1 DesFlot 13 DD DesRon 301

Forces deployed
Mobius
1 CLAC
1 CruDiv 94.1
1 DesRon
1 Batt Marines + 1 Batt ships Marine detachments

Yes the Ponies are for messaging over the H-wall.

saber, not arguing, but I enjoy discussing ship deployments (upon occasion RFC drives me to distraction with this... )
And friend Don (N7awx) also has a question which I'll try to answer, having recently re-read SoF.

I think Mike took 10 SD(P) and 10 CLAC's to Montana, deploying the other 10 SD(P)'s and 10 CLAC's under Bennington to Tillerman. She spoke of leaving a "division" of CLAC's at Montana, which I interpret to mean a total of 5 CLAC's, one deployed to Mobius and 4 at Montana.

So once she arrived at Tillerman, she had 20 SD(P)'s and 15 CLAC's available, and brought (that we got to see) 28 Capital ships over the wall at Meyers. Friend saber and I mildly disagree on what the classes were (YMMV), but using my estimates (it's my message, after all.. ), she'd have 16 SD(P)'s and 12 CLAC's with her at Meyers (and then Mesa) while leaving 4 SD(P)'s and 3 CLAC's at Tillerman (or re-deployed elsewhere, as their reason for being at Tillerman was because of it's proximity to Meyers Sector, IIRC).

So that's my take. Of course, RFC knows best, but that's never stopped me from speculating before...

Hi Hutch,

I bet RFC reads our posts and enjoys himself. Besides where would be the fun if we weren't speculating?

Thanks for your response.

Don